Sealion? Is there a perfict set up?

[cyanight]

Very good point Gamerman01, but what if it was just 9inf instead of tanks.  USA still does not have a force capable of liberating for at least 3-4 more turns.  If they were all tanks you might be better off just wiping the navy and leave the tanks stranded in London.

[ItIsILeClerc]

As far as my experience goes, if Germany can get 9ARM into London, USA trying to liberate it gets tricky. For both sides.
Having (and leaving) 9ARM in London can be pulled off IF the luftwaffe still exists to threaten Russia. This is the sort of German victory over London I am talking about when saying ‘sucessfull’. If the luftwaffe is (mostly) gone, Germany is done for by Russian pressure alone.

However, 9ARM is not going to stop USA from liberating London. That can be achieved by Japan’s actions PLUS leaving the Luftwaffe in london also.
Remember, the USA has elements of its pacific fleet to rush into London so if Japan goes down and heavy on India, the US can bring into London US4:
7TRS, 1BB, 3CA, 3CV, 5FTR, 1TAC, 3STR, 7INF, 2ART, 1ARM, 4MECH.
For a total expense of 91 IPCs. USA has 104 IPCs to spend in the 2 first turns so it can even bring more. Germany can ONLY defend against this with all its Luftwaffe in London + the Italian airforce as well. Which is interesting, because then Stalin should smile at the Germans trying to defend against him…

So the first choice rests with Japan; will it play standard OR will it focus on the USA to prevent London from being rescued? The latter gives very interesting allied options as well, as China, India and ANZAC will get rich and the USA can even forego liberating London and help focusing down Japan whilst Russia plays a ‘hold out’ game against Germany/Italy, at which it is VERY capable I might add. And don’t forget Russia no longer even requires its Siberian Hunters in Moscow, so those can stay in the pacific… Staring down Japanese ;-).

The second choice rests with the USA. Going after Japan in turn sequence, the USA has an easier job making this decision and it will be either KJF OR Liberating London. Depending on what Japan does, ofc! IF Japan plays the standard ‘India’ game, the USA can choose to bring down a mean hammer to London to force GE to choose to defend against either the hammer or the (Russian) anvil and it cannot do both. The USA must of course from US3 and on, spend all its income in the Pacific again to prepare for the possibility that Japan turns around and comes for Hawai and/or Sydney. Since Japan is bullying India, this will not be a real threat for at least untill J7 so plenty of time for the US.

Leaves me only 1 thing to say: UK should be perfectly able to make GE have only 1 to 9 survivors in total (including its Luftwaffe) or even win the battle outright! Which makes liberating actions by the US a lot easier OR Russian pressure a lot bigger! In any case, Russia can play an effective hold out game while the USA destroys either 1 axis partner.

[JDOW]

@cyanight:

Even if they build 6inf and a fighter its still very possible.

Hey there, a lot of good posts in this thread and I agree to everything what gamerman said, I picked a small quote here to drop one sentence:

The question whether to do sealion is NOT if it is possible but only if it is devastating enough to take London with minimal losses.
A close victory in London losing lots of air and tanks almost equals a certain demise of the Axis against well playing Allies.
And even if you take London with lots of survivors the game is far away from being over in case the Russians play well.

@Spendo02:

Lets be honest here, Sea Lion is a cat and mouse game.  Germany signals to the UK player that I’ll do Sea Lion if you don’t hedge against it by buying 6 Inf and 1 Ftr on UK1.  As a German player, I want you to turtle.  I don’t want a carrier on top of 2 Destroyers and a Cruiser with 4 fighters scrambling over it before I make my second purchase.

Well said, I agree!
In addition the German fleet not only says UK to turtle but also forces US to invest more in boats before they can annoy the Germans in Europe. The carrier always creates an annoying threat on sz91 because Germans can never be completely blocked of 91 then.

[JDOW]

But also keep in mind: The fleet in G1 forces the Germans to play VERY efficient towards Russia to at least keep a chance on a successful push on Moscow till G7. After G7 the odds on Moscow usually drop for a while which is not the end of the game but in many cases a severe problem. Building ground in G1 makes a successful attack on Moscow till G7 very likely however the question is whether Western Europe collapses in the meantime or not.

Any outcome depends on how efficient the players play and who does less smaller mistakes than his opponent.

[ItIsILeClerc]

Totally agree, JDOW!
Lots of good points in this thread. Very interesting insights and things for further study  :-).
I like to add that I have the feeling that Barbarossa is the most deadly and the best available German strategy today. Sea Lion is also a valid strategy, however, against decent allied play ofc, always less deadly and even then only if the answer to your question is positive for Germany:
@JDOW:

The question whether to do sealion is NOT if it is possible but only if it is devastating enough to take London with minimal losses.
A close victory in London losing lots of air and tanks almost equals a certain demise of the Axis against well playing Allies.
And even if you take London with lots of survivors the game is far away from being over in case the Russians play well.

Oh, and about what any outcome depends on, I 'd like to add the dice as well  :|. Especially those of the first round of battles…

[knp7765]

@ItIsILeClerc:

Oh, and about what any outcome depends on, I 'd like to add the dice as well  :|. Especially those of the first round of battles…

Oh yeah! We just finished a game last weekend. I was Germany and my first round went miserably. I managed to take Yugoslavia and France well enough, but my small forces in Normandy and S. France both failed and my attack on the Royal Navy went horribly wrong. I lost half my Luftwaffe and the Brits had both battleships plus a cruiser (SZ 111) and all their RAF left over. They promptly took that and attacked my navy in SZ 112. This time they got wiped out but pretty much pasted me as well. All I had surviving was my 3 scramble fighters and 1 lonely transport. Horrible, HORRIBLE dice for me.
Well, needless to say, Sealion was out of the question. Luckily I had managed to build up enough troops on the eastern border and Russia made offensive buys and stacked the border thinking they were going to come pouring over the border after Sealion. When I attacked Russia, I killed most of their stuff with the first attack and marched on Moscow.
Lucky for me, our US player was really focused on Japan and did little to nothing in the Atlantic. Once I got Moscow and Stalingrad and the Italians managed to wrestle Cairo from UK, it was an Axis victory. If the US had spent more in the Atlantic, things might have been different.

[ItIsILeClerc]

Wow, just wow…
Loosing that much of the luftwaffe and still be able to take Moscow. That’s what I call a damn good job!

Tbh, I always wanted to know if Moscow could be taken after a German (semi) Sea Lion set-up but turning east GE3, destroying an overeager Russian (moved to far forward RU2).
Because destroying the entire Red Army (or at least 80% of it) is one thing, taking Moscow is another. I guess your game gives good hope that it can be done against an overeager Russian.
1 such game is not enough to draw final conclusions I fear but still, nice to know. Thanks for sharing that experience  :-).

[knp7765]

Oh yeah. I have found in most cases that when Russia stacks the border hoping to barrel into German territory, Germany can end up really turning it bad for Russia and Germany will usually have enough to take Moscow when they get there.
The trick is to be able to stack your border with a lot of guys while simultaneously trying for Sealion. It is a little hard but not terribly so. The thing is you put a lot of infantry and maybe a few artillery. DO NOT get a lot of tanks and mechs the first couple of rounds or so. It has to be all the slow movers. That kind of tricks Russia into thinking you are simply trying to stack defense while dealing with England and they just have to build up enough to overwhelm your defensive measures.
Then, the round before you begin your attack, you get tanks and mechs and drop them in Berlin. You should have 3 tanks that were originally based on the eastern border. Also, if Sealion falls through, the surviving tanks and mechs from France can go over to Yugoslavia. These can help with your Romania force, which will be hardest to supply from Berlin. The tanks and mechs you put in Berlin can support both the Slovakia and Poland forces. I usually try to send my bombers and other planes that can reach to help my Finland force.
Then the next round, usually it’s round 4 for me, BAM! You invade Russia and wipe out the bulk of their forces. Usually you will kill a lot of infantry and most if not all of their artillery as they were preparing to attack you. If you are lucky, you might even get a tank or two.
If the battles go well, you will have very strong forces in Karelia, Baltic States, E Poland and Bessarabia while leaving Russia with a fraction of their total force. Vyborg may present a problem depending on how Russia stacked her forces, but Leningrad and the Ukraine should fall fairly easily, giving you two shiny new minor ICs to support your drive east. Now you have strong forces in Novgorod, Belorus, Western Ukraine and Ukraine.
By this time, Russia will be scrambling and buying all infantry to defend Moscow, but too little too late. Germany should be able to stage their bombers in E Poland and bomb the crap out of Moscow’s IC. If Italy has taken Greece, they can use their bomber to SBR the Stalingrad IC. Between repairing damaged factories and shrinking territory, Russia just won’t be able to buy too much defense for Moscow. In 2 more rounds, Germany should be able to overwhelm Moscow with the forces left from the original invasion plus a little extra from the Leningrad/Ukraine ICs and extra air flying in from Germany.
I make it sound easy, but it still takes some doing. If Sealion fell through or was unsuccessful, Britain will still be active and trying to cause you troubles. The US could show up and cause problems. If they go too strong and Italy can’t handle them, it could definitely cause problems for you. That’s why I advocate starting the Russian invasion with a really big force so you don’t have to keep adding more. With any luck, most of your money can go to dealing with the US/UK while your original invasion force (with some padding) continues on into Russia.

[ItIsILeClerc]

Just to get a complete picture:
According to some earlier ‘studies’ I came to the conclusion that it is possible if Russia moves forward RU2,
that GE3 can destroy them instead of doing Sea Lion (bad mistake, Stalin). Russia has to wait moving forward untill after GE3 went Sea Lion of course and it has to buy fast units for this RU2 (mostly MECH).
This is possible even if GE1 or GE2 produced only land untis and invested ~70 IPCs into ships. The only question left for me, was if GE would subsequently be able to take Moscow as well. Apparently it can be done after this overeager Russian forward ‘gambit’.

Buying ships worth 2 complete rounds of production (total 98 IPCs) will  turn into a disaster for the axis if they also invade London. Almost single-handedly by the Russians! I’ve seen that too many times already to think GE can stop that.
No info on the outcome if GE produces this quantity of ships and still forgegoes the attack on London, but it seems to me that Russia and the UK are only to blame for themselves if Moscow still falls after these course of events (too much ships for GE).

In my experience (and assuming Russia does not make the mentioned mistake), it is already impossible for GE to take Moscow after spending ~50 IPCs on ships. Heck, even if they spend 100% on land units dedicated to march onto Moscow (although Russia then requiring heavy aid from the western allies), but that should be in a different thread and let’s not forget the dice can still ruin both sides. Although Moscow has a huge advantage in the luck-table…

[gamerman01]

Well, get a load of this game

Germany attacks London and the Russian’s forward stack in East Poland at the same time (out of necessity)
Germany gets good dice and wins both battles, and Axis player resigns in round 4

[ghr2]

@Gamerman01:

Well, get a load of this game

Germany attacks London and the Russian’s forward stack in East Poland at the same time (out of necessity)
Germany gets good dice and wins both battles, and Axis player resigns in round 4

NSW was in axis favor but barely, only 60%.

[gamerman01]

IIRC about 8 battles all had to go the Axis way to win that game, and he got through about 6 of those hoops

To just look at NSW and say 60% is to really oversimplify the situation

[ItIsILeClerc]

Wait, let me get this straight (I cannot read AAA-files)…

Germany WON both battles and still gave up (Axis resigned)?
And out of curiousity: why was it a necessity to attack Russia? Eastern Europe otherwise completely undefendable?

[gamerman01]

@ItIsILeClerc:

Wait, let me get this straight (I cannot read AAA-files)…

Germany WON both battles and still gave up (Axis resigned)?
And out of curiousity: why was it a necessity to attack Russia? Eastern Europe otherwise completely undefendable?

Yes, you have it straight, Germany won both battles, but with only a tank remaining on London
Eastern Europe was going to be a problem either way.  Too bad you can’t look at the file.  Maybe you should download Triple A?

[ItIsILeClerc]

yeah I haven’t used AAA yet. I really prefer the board on the table with the plastic pieces and all. For filereading it might actually come in handy…

[gamerman01]

Yes it would -

www.triplea.sourceforge.net

[ItIsILeClerc]

Been trying to install TripleA but… nvm…

The installer automatically diappears/is removed from my desktop immediately after the download is completed without any form of inteaction. Repeatedly. Possibly a ‘feature’ of my security program but I don’t want to download anything with it turned off, so I guess too bad for AAA…

[gamerman01]

Turn off the security program and download it again.  It’s safe.

Or download it from a different computer and transfer the file to your precious one  :wink:

[ghr2]

@Gamerman01:

IIRC about 8 battles all had to go the Axis way to win that game, and he got through about 6 of those hoops

To just look at NSW and say 60% is to really oversimplify the situation

I can understand that it was probably your only real chance at winning.  If things were too rough everywhere else, then I would of gone for it too.

[gamerman01]

I was the Allies, in the driver’s seat  :-)