So you pull your TRN’s away from Asia to deal with that fleet.
US Fleet: 1 AC, 1 BB, 2 FIG, 2 TRN, 1 DST
Japan Fleet: 2 AC, 2 BB, 4 FIG, 4 TRN, 1 BOM
Also, with UK knowing what US is going to do, add 1 TRN and 1 SUB of UK moving into SZ45 from SZ40…
Against THAT fleet, Japan has a 1 in 3 chance of winning if they do not bring their carriers, with the most likely result being that US holds SZ45 with a BB, AC and FIG and Japan’s navy AND air force is destroyed.
If you bring the AC’s with you, Japan has a 76% chance of winning, with 2 BB’s, a fig and a bomber left.
But if you pull ALL of your fleet to deal with the US spearhead, then Japan’s other tasks are shorted…
4 FIGS and 1 BOM not being used in Asia this round (and 3 won;t be alive for later use)
No land units trannied to Asia this round
Trannies built in J3 are defenseles in SZ60 or 61 and subject to UK bomber (since UK can forward stage the bomber to reach by UK3)
Or, if you built a replacement AC in J3, then you have not been able to fully restore your TRN fleet, weakening you in Asia again NEXT round.
While in US3, I build another AC, FIG, SUB to add to my existing DST and 2 TRN off Western.
End of the Turn 3
US FLeet is 1 AC, 1 FIG, 1 DST, 1 SUB, 2 TRN minimum in SZ55
Japan fleet is 2 BB;s in SZ45; and 1 AC, 1 FIG, 2 TRN in SZ60
You can consoldiate those fleets again in J4, and US can start moving back into the South Pacific with another spearhead.
But your forward Asia forces have no re-supplies in Bury from J3 landings to support them, and 3 FIGS are dead that can no longer provide offensive punch to support the existing Asia forces…
In R4, Russia pushes BACK…