You are forgetting a few things:
First off, the SECOND UK navy being blown to snot by the remaining German AF in G2 (It can be done, ALL of the trannies at least, leaves Germany with little to no AF, but can be done). That means NO UK OR US reinforcements (other than figs) of Karelia prior to UK4, and none of Russia until UK5. UK will be building trannies in UK3 which it can first use for Karelia in UK4, and then those surviving forces, if any, can go to Russia on UK5. UK won;t be doing un-oposed landing in Karelia prior ro UK6, with forces reaching Russia en masse prior to UK7.
So by Germany blitzing open territories and not hitting Egypt in G1, you pull out of Africa to Persia? Cool. I’ll add another 4 IPC’s to Germany free in G2.
Russia does the Yakstack in R1. OK, UK pulls INF to Sinkiang and fig to Russia.
In J1, I walk into India free (1 INF). Hit China with Manchuria and Kwangtung INF (5 INF), plus Japan fig and bomber. Heavy navy (surface ships only) go for Pearl. Trannies go to Japan sea zone, picking up INF from Phillipines and Okinawa, filling up from Japan to land 4 INF in Manchuria. 2 figs and bomber land in Manchuria.
Here is the optional part using your Asian Wall strategy…
Burma and Manchuria figs to Karelia, adding 2 4’s to Germany’s defense.
Also, you made an error in your calculations. If Russia stacks Karelia with 19INF, 3 ARM and 1 FIG in R1, then there are NO ARM or FIGS in Caucuses for a counter. That represents almost 100% of the forces Russia has available west of Russia at the end of R1 , your Karelia forces, your Caucuses forces, your Russia forces, and all of your build (other than the 1 fig in UK). You have 1 INF either in Russia or Caucuses, 1 fig in UK, and 7 INF and 1 ARM in Yakut.
So what are you going to counter-attack Karelia with in R2? 1 INF and 1 FIG?
Also, if you stack Karelia that heavy, and I intend to go for it, I am going to use my med navy to land in Caucuses in G1 and ignore the Gibraltar Battleship. Will make my navy battle in G2 a trifle harder, but still easilly winable with my remaining AF, even with US figs.
So in G2, Germany has Caucuses with 2 INF after that 1 Russian INF was blown away by BB. Germany has some number of forces in Karelia (whatever survived the inital onslaught), plus 2 Japan figs, and 4 INF 2ARM staged in Eastern ready to move forward. They can build there this round also.
If Germany wants, it can try for Russia in G2. They will have 3+ ARM (the plus a matter of how many tanks survived the initial attack), 2 INF from Caucuses, and their remaining AF (2-4 figs and 1 bom). Russia will have AT MOST 8 INF (their R2 build), 3 UK figs , 1 UK BOM, 1 ARM moved back from Yakut in R2. An attack of 5 to 9 3’s, 2 1’s and a 4 against 9 2’s and 3 4’s.
Attack Rating from 21 to 33 with 8 to 12 pieces
Defense Rating MAX 30 with 12 pieces.
That means that, if I survived Karelia with more than 3 tanks and a couple of figs,plus the figs that survived the UK navy in G1, Russia falls to Germany in G2. Then Germany drops it’s build in Karelia and Germany preparing for the UK to start minor landings, to hold for 1 round of serious attack before Germany does a 60 IPC build in G3. Japan starts mopping up Russia’s few remaining forces by hitting Yak HARD, as well as hitting Sinkiang to remove UK’s forces in Asia, and in 2 rounds, the Continent is secure, Axis wins.
No.
1) Russia could still Counter with 2 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr. (Remember 2 inf from eve to Mos, 1 arm to Novo, 1 ftr went to UK)
2) Germay attacking Kar when it has 19 inf, 3 arm, 1 ftr is a big mistake.
2A) You have to bring in 4 ftrs just to ensure you take it (that is with avg dice), which means 4 aa shots. Maybe maybe you can get away with 3 but that is a huge risk for very little reward, IMO.
2B) That leaves ONLY 2 planes for UK sz and E Can. So 2 Subs and 2 planes to UK sz??? Do you leave the E can tran??? The UK sz has 1 bb, 2 trns, 1 sub. If you go in with only 2 subs an 2 planes there is a chance you’ll lose a ftr there.
If you go to Kar you have to go all or nothing, meaning bring in all planes and kill off your ftrs before your tanks, which means you have to leave the Allied fleet.
If you then take with 5-7 arm THEN you consider landing the Jap ftrs there. Other wise you’ll lose your Jap ftrs with the UK counter and Russia follow-up.
If you try to do both Kar and UK sz, and go for the wins, you are in for a world of hurt.
So by Germany blitzing open territories and not hitting Egypt in G1, you pull out of Africa to Persia? Cool. I’ll add another 4 IPC’s to Germany free in G2.
No. Then UK transports back from Per to kill your arm. Only this time I have the Unit that moved up to Ken, the 2 inf in Per (via trn), the arm, and my bom if needed.
Also, you made an error in your calculations. If Russia stacks Karelia with 19INF, 3 ARM and 1 FIG in R1, then there are NO ARM or FIGS in Caucuses for a counter. That represents almost 100% of the forces Russia has available west of Russia at the end of R1 , your Karelia forces, your Caucuses forces, your Russia forces, and all of your build (other than the 1 fig in UK). You have 1 INF either in Russia or Caucuses, 1 fig in UK, and 7 INF and 1 ARM in Yakut.
Wrong. 2 inf from eve to Mos. 5 inf, 1 ftr in Yak is enough to defend with no Asia bid. (see above for counter on G1, IF they even take Kar which is doubtful without significant ftr presence)
Also, if you stack Karelia that heavy, and I intend to go for it, I am going to use my med navy to land in Caucuses in G1 and ignore the Gibraltar Battleship. Will make my navy battle in G2 a trifle harder, but still easilly winable with my remaining AF, even with US figs.
Wrong. Your forced to leave some, if not all of the Allied fleet in the UK sz or E can as well. You’ll need some planes in Kar.
13 inf, 7 arm vs. 19 inf, 3 arm, 1 ftr That is a big mismatch. You need at least 4 ftrs, and if you go with that much, you might as well bring all 6 and leave the Allied fleet. Which again leaves the UK counter for Kar.
If Germany wants, it can try for Russia in G2. They will have 3+ ARM (the plus a matter of how many tanks survived the initial attack), 2 INF from Caucuses, and their remaining AF (2-4 figs and 1 bom). Russia will have AT MOST 8 INF (their R2 build), 3 UK figs , 1 UK BOM, 1 ARM moved back from Yakut in R2. An attack of 5 to 9 3’s, 2 1’s and a 4 against 9 2’s and 3 4’s.
Attack Rating from 21 to 33 with 8 to 12 pieces
Defense Rating MAX 30 with 12 pieces.That means that, if I survived Karelia with more than 3 tanks and a couple of figs,plus the figs that survived the UK navy in G1, Russia falls to Germany in G2. Then Germany drops it’s build in Karelia and Germany preparing for the UK to start minor landings, to hold for 1 round of serious attack before Germany does a 60 IPC build in G3. Japan starts mopping up Russia’s few remaining forces by hitting Yak HARD, as well as hitting Sinkiang to remove UK’s forces in Asia, and in 2 rounds, the Continent is secure, Axis wins.
Nope.
Not without a bigger bid to Europe.
You assume far too much. If you want to go for the R2 kill, you have to go Kar heavy on G1 with all planes. And you have to sacrifice planes instead of arm. Meaning you leave the Allied fleet intact.
Personally, I don’t go for Kar unless I think I can take with all 7 arm then land the 2 J ftrs, plus the 2 inf in Cauc and the 2 arm in EE.
Also Russia can actually defend with 10 inf, 1 arm, 4 ftrs (1R ftr from UK, 3 UK ftrs), 2 boms (UK, US).
Russia has 40 Defensive pts.
Germany has the 2 inf in Cauc, but they still need about 14-15 3’s to take. So with 7 arm left over in Kar and 2 in EE, you still need ALL 6 planes. And again that assumes you lose 0 in rd 1, which is IMPOSSIBLE if you intend to take Kar and hold.
You simply don’t have enough without a PE bid.
Again, the Allies are too strong, hence the need for bids. With RR I’d go 9-15 range and in regular 21+.
Personally, I think 22 is enough for the Axis to be competitive.
We are going to have to make an appointment to play this one out in the spring when I get my new PC that can handle the java in the tripleA version, unless you have the Hasbro version and want to try their 2-player game sometime :-)
A few notes:
1: Western Europe fig to take out Canada tranny.
2: 2 subs and 2 figs to take out UK fleet (so I might lose a fig)
3. 2 figs, 1 bom, plus the 7 INF and the 13 INF (I think I already ran that battle sequence, it is close, but it is an axis victory.
4. Gibraltar BB lives, so does med sub and India tranny.
Axis taking Karelia means that 2 of those 3 UK figs face AA on their way to Russia, as do both bombers. Odds are 1 will be shot down.
I forgot about the Evenk INF, thinking you had 7 INF in Yakut. NP, just means Japan WILL crush Yakut in J2, might even do it in J1.
If Russia counters in Karelia in R2, they will have ONLY 2 INF, 1 ARM, and 1 FIG to use, against 2 Japan figs, and whatever German land forces survived taking Karelia (at least 1 ARM). 2 1’s, and 2 3’s against at least 1 2 and 2 4’s. 8 Attack with 4 pieces against minimum defense of 10 with 3 pieces. You attack and kill 1. Counter kills 2. You kill 1 again, I kill 2 more, Russia is dead, Karelia is still German with 1 Japan fig present.
Germany builds in Karelia, moves 2 ARM and 4 INF to Karelia, and there is still a Japan fig there for defense.
Your counter in Africa will be in UK2, after Germany gets paid for another 4 IPC’s there (now +7 in Africa). So Germany is going to have a 40 IPC build in G3 (assume US took Norway in US1, though US could take Western so Germany could be only +4).
By weakening the Yakstack to 5 INF only, you lose Yak and SFE in J2. This is in addition to Japan taking Sinkiang (already had China and India). Japan will also begin SBR’s in J2, taking away from Russia R3 and subsequent builds, about 1 less INF per round. You are going to also pull forces out of Persia to counter in Africa in UK2, so now Japan can potentially take Persia. Also, with the Japan fleet being our of business since Pearl, those surviving ships are heading for the Indian Ocean, so by J4, you are out of options for that tranny.
At the start of R3, Russia has a problem… Germany holds Karelia and is building there. Japan holds Yakut and Sinkiang. They have only 8 INF to use for defense (plus allied AF, everythign else died at Karelia on R1, or in the counter-strike on R2, and the 5 INF that died in Yakut in J1 or J2). They have Japan poised to take another 6 IPC from them in Evenk, Novo, and Kazakh. Major allied landings won;t begin until after Germany goes this round (US may have landed additional forces in Norway or Western in US2, but they will not be in position to assist Russia before G3, UK just started their fleet re-build in UK1, but no sizable number of trannies for use until UK3.
It is not yet a loss for the Allies, but they are hard pressed. Now it comes down to Germany’s builds, and whether Russia thins out to hold IPC’s or not, and how fast the Allies can start smashing against Karelia to break the Seige of Moscow.
Lastly, I forgot to mention that there is some question as to the number of Allied figs that can be in Russia.
I assume that your UK based planes took out my Baltic trannies on the way by. There is a 50/50 chance if you just used the 2 figs for that that I took 1 of them out with the trannies. Then those surviving AF had to fly over the Karelia AA.
I also assume that your sub and what originally was the India fig went after my Med navy. In that battle I have a pretty fair shot of killing both the sub and the fig in a mutual destruction battle.
On average, I would say that UK would end up with only 1 fig in Russia after UK2, not 3.
But hey, if you want to leave my navy intact, then I have that many more forces in Karelia, and am able to BB and counter you in Africa and Middle East.
I will say that I am concerned about leaving the Gibraltar BB intact in G1. I think UK might skip the AC on their build, use the BB to anchor their fleet, and simply start dropping trannies with filling as fast as they can, combined with US filled trannies moving in on US2.
I could be looking at a BB and 4 trannies on G2, with minimal AF to counter.
AA guns don’t fire during Non-Com.
So you can safely Non-Com all planes to Mos.
Always Active AA - is only an option and I didn’t include that.
If you’re splitting your force to take out the Allied ships and hit Kar then 13, 7, 2, 1 is not enough to take Kar with any force. Â With NO aa hits you can take with 2 arm killing your planes. Â +/- an arm.
Now what if Russia shoots down a plane? Â You’re looking at a Russia HOLD with 3 arm, 1 ftr. Â +/- a unit.
Why reduce the game to a crap shoot? Â 50% of the time the Axis lose prior to UK 1 (when Russia holds)
And the other 50% you only take with maybe 3 arm. Â That is not enough to seriously threaten Moscow, even with Cauc and the EE arm.
Further if you intend on landing J ftrs in Kar, that means you can’t use them in Chi. Â They can’t do both. Â Granted you can still take Chi with other air, but you do lose some offense.
The key to Russia (in the East) is to not lose the Inf. Â It doesn’t really matter if J takes Ind, Chi, SFE, Yak, and Sin. Â The key territory is Novo.
The Allies start with 11 inf in the East (7 R, 2 US, 2 UK), minus the 2 in Chi they are a lost cause. Â Now even if you take out the 2 from Eve that still leaves 9.
A tactical retreat can leave you with 9 inf in Novo. Â Now, when Japan threatens you can even pull back to Mos and now place 5-6 inf in Mos. Â Now If Japan trys to move Heavy into Novo, you strafe teh heck out them with 16-18 inf, 4 arm, 2 ftr (unless you bought move arm). Â That means Japan needs 16-20 inf to even consider holding. Â It takes Japan 3 turns to get units to Novo, But Russia’s placements are immediately usable.
I don’t see Germany as being much of a threat in this scenerio. Â Of the key battles they do (with the allocation you used) , there is a pretty good chance you lose one of them or at the very least have poor rolls in one and if it happens in UK sz or Kar it is game over before Japan even goes.
You’re better off placing your 8 bid to Afr (1 arm, 1 inf) and strengthening Germany for the early rds giving Japan the time needed  to muster the force to crack Novo and hold.  Rather than an all or nothing on G1.
Allied Support would arrive in Fin on rd2 and Kar by rd 3. Â If you leave the BB, that means UK can buy 3 trns in rd 1 and 1 US tran leaves 4 with a bb. Â I’ll bait this attack with the Allies and Germany will have lost at least 2 ftrs on G1, probably 3 (including the bom in Kar if they want to hold with multiple arm), so if they want to send 3 ftrs vs. 4 trns 1 bb, then go ahead. Â Now Germany will be out of all its arm and air.
Also rd 2 UK can go more trans (if needed) and US 1 purchase of 3 trns arrive in Fin on rd 2. Â Which means both UK and US can get to Kar in rd 3.
Obviously there are a lot of what ifs, but my main point is an all out G1 crap shoot on a heavily defended Kar is not the way to go. Â You reduce your game to hoping for good to even great rolls. Â Which simply won’t happen very often. Â Yeah, maybe a game or 2 you get incredible dice, but over the long hall your going to end up losing probably 80-85% of the time or more. Â I mean straight up the Allies win about 95% of the time, so you improve the Axis odds to 15%, not a difference maker because you still rely too heavily on dice for a win.
Anyone got the odds of an Axis take of Kar with 2+ arm when the attack looks like this:
13 inf, 7 arm, 2 ftrs, 1 bom vs. 19 inf, 3 arm, 1 ftr?
I’ll gladly play you, only I don’t use AAA or play the CD online.
I do however Play by Email. Â It is really fun and requires no added tools. Â There is a map to email, but you don’t even really need that. Â I’d be glad to show you how it works. Â Although, it is addictive, so be warned. Â :-D
I’m currently playing Madscientist in a PBEM game (in the games section) and with Christmas this weekend, I won’t have the time till next Mon. or so. but think about if you want and let me know. Â We could even just do some play testing if you didn’t have the time for a whole game. Â Just play out till rd 3 or 4 and see how the game shakes out.
EDIT:
You’re right I’d probably kill your ships.
But I don’t think the UK ftrs are that big of a deal, as I don’t think it would come to that. Meaning I don’t think Ger can mount the threat where +/- a UK ftr or 2 will be needed.
EDIT 2:
You’re right about UK going right for trannies on UK 1 (as listed above)
Anyone got the odds of an Axis take of Kar with 2+ arm when the attack looks like this:
13 inf, 7 arm, 2 ftrs, 1 bom vs. 19 inf, 3 arm, 1 ftr?
God dammit, I can’t keep up with you two. Good points on both sides. The only thing I was holding on to in the end that I could comment on was the fact that the US can reinforce KAR no problem, but DM got to that in his last post.
Since I’m the odds man around here, I’ll lay it down for you:
50% chance for attacker win, 48% chance for defender win, and about 2% chance for mutual kaboom.
The interesting part is that if the defender wins they come out looking a lot better than the offender. 28% of the time the defender will come out of the battle with all of its armor and a fighter. Within that 28%, there is a roughly even divide between infantry. That is, of the 28% pie, it is evenly divided between holding with not only the armor and fighter, but 0 inf, 1 inf, 2 inf, 3 inf, 4 inf, 5 inf. It is just as likely that Russia will hold with 1 inf as it does with 4. On the flipside…
There is about a 24% chance for the offense to succeed with armor on the ground, and saving its air. In that 24% chance there is a roughly even divide between 1 armor, 2 armor, 3 armor, 4 armor, and 5 armor. Talking outside of either of the above outcomes would be silly, as they would be very far from the mainstream dice.
Hope that helps. Obviously, germany can take out its air sooner rather than later to improve what it takes with. It really is still such a crapshoot. I wish people would stop having pipedreams about karelia.
I wish people would stop having pipedreams about karelia.
Not to mention that karelia is not Moscow…if Germany takes Karelia, that doesn’t mean the game is over for the Allies.
Hope that helps. Obviously, germany can take out its air sooner rather than later to improve what it takes with. It really is still such a crapshoot. I wish people would stop having pipedreams about karelia.
Thank you Fiendish! I had no idea the odds on that Karelia strike, even with taking out most of the UK navy, was such a close fight. Literally 50/50, and within that 50% either way, damn near equal percentages for either side to have AF plus up to 5 ARM left. I am honestly not sure that you could create a more “even” scenario in the game if you deliberately set out to do so :-)
Pipedrams about Karelia? Well for Germany, it is a rather juicy target, and one that, if taken and held, is a sizable victory for Germany. It cuts off Russia access to Eastern, Norway, and Ukraine and reduces Germany to only 2 territories to defend against Russia instead of 3 (or 4 if Germany takes Caucuses). Taking Karelia also shuts down the Allied feed into Russia, a critical task for Germany: one that is accomplished initially by destroying allied navy, and hopefully is accomplished later by position on the ground.
A quick whack and take of Karelia IS feasible (damn, I am back to where I started on this whole freakin board! LOL). And doing so leaves Germany in a strong position. No, it is NOT Russia, but it is a key tactical AND strategic objective. When combined with taking Caucuses through Naval landing as a joint push on G1, and combined with a strong Japan push from the east, it leaves Russia very weak very quickly; producing as few as 5 INF per round by R4, less losses to Japan SBR. And I am sorry, if Germany has taken and held Karelia, and still hold it at the end of T4, Russia is toast. No allied land forces are getting in to help them, Germany has forces in position for at least 1 swipe at Russia and is building forces at 3 times the rate Russia is, and Japan will be at the stage where their forces are poised for repeated swipes on Russia and building more than 2 times Russia’s level. By J5, Japan is sending tanks against Russia at a rate of a half dozen or more per round, backed up by AF and some INF. It won’t take long to whittle through the 20 or so INF and the couple of allied planes in Russia with that repeated volume of onslaught. And if the Axis is able to set up the 1-2-3 strike with a strong Japan hit, a small Russia build, a strong German hit, and a second strong Japan hit, Russia is going to fall.
And it does not matter who takes it. If Germany gets it, great. But even if Japan gets it, they are then able to pour forces into Europe to help Germany at the rate of 8 units per round of INF and ARM, and later figs and bombers.
Thanks for the odds aaFiendish.
ncscs, yes while Kar can be important, the round 1 assualt can often do more harm than good.
IMO, the best time to make the move on Kar would be right as Japan is about to take Novo. Usually this can be about rd 5.
This way Russia can do anything about it, can must concede both spots to the Axis.
If you go too early (or without sufficient force) with either Novo or Kar, then Russia has the ability to defend the one taken and pull out of the other, then on the following turn do the same thing to the other side.
It is similar to what Germany can do with WE-Ger-EE.
I don’t like putting my hopes in a 50% battle, especially that early in the game. I’d much rather place my bid in Afr, wait for Japan and then see if the battle shifts to 60%, 70%, 80% in my favor.
I agree with DM, but I’d like to add another point.
If Germany keeps its forces back, there does exist the possibility of an Axis lurch to an economic victory. Germany won’t be able to do its part (take Karelia, Ukraine, African territories?) if it spends its forces so early. By turn 5 or 6, Japan is usually at 45+ ipc and this is where Germany can help lurch to an economic victory by taking Ukraine/cauc, Karelia, African territories.
Just reminding folks that the specifics of this thread are a bit unique.
The opening concept is the threat of Sealion in G1 by building a Baltic tranny with the build. That threat assumes that Russia sends at least 1 fig to UK in R1 to counter. It also established RR so Germany would have 2 trannies in the Baltic for transporting forces to Karelia for G1 (if Russia did counter an immediate Sealion by sending a fig).
Thus the Karelia numbers are skewed quite a bit from “traditional” play: Germany with 4 extra INF, Russia with 1 fewer figs. That is a HUGE swing as relates to a G1 strike on Karelia.
And I firmly believe what others showed me here several weeks ago, based only on initial board set-up and no bid, Karelia is a BAD idea in G1. Personally, I like the G4 Karelia strike… hitting it before the Allies really start to land forces on the mainland using all of my armor, and a TON of INF (but alas no planes, my German AF is dead by then from attacking Navy)
Even with the 8 inf bid into the baltic, I think it is still shown that karelia is a bad idea. You have to do really well to not have karelia taken back, and if you don’t it’s game over. Effectively by placing that transport there you make your chances at taking karelia strongly better, but still marginal, and if russia does defend you have wasted 8 ipcs.
Even with the 8 inf bid into the baltic, I think it is still shown that karelia is a bad idea. You have to do really well to not have karelia taken back, and if you don’t it’s game over. Effectively by placing that transport there you make your chances at taking karelia strongly better, but still marginal, and if russia does defend you have wasted 8 ipcs.
1: If Russia does not send a fig to UK, you do Sealion, and you have a slightly better than 50% chance of winning the game right there.
2: If Russia does defend against Sealion, you have a 50/50 chance of taking Karelia. With 2 Japan figs flown in on J1 to aid in defense, Russia CANNOT retake Karelia on R2 (unless they staged a lot of forces back in Caucuses or Russia for the counter, in which case Germany has a heck of a lot more forces in Karelia, and their whole AF is intact.
3: The extra tranny gives you about a 50% chance of downing 1 UK fig on its wasy to Russia, a rather nice bonus for the Axis.
It is a series of gambits, each one approximately break-even for either side.
Of course, we are talking about game BALANCE, the idea that the Axis is too weak, thus bids were introduced. Most folks advocate a 12-15 IPC bid to balance in Europe. But I think with the odds that have been posted, this shows that 8 IPC’s in the form of a single tranny makes it dead-balls-on even for the first 3-4 rounds.
After that, it is up to the players to gain or lose that balance, which is the whole point of the game.
But again, Karelia is not Russia. In the worst case, Russia could just go with an all infantry buy for several turns and retreat the Asia forces and the Allies could land their fighters in Moscow. Germany won’t have sufficient forces to take Moscow, having only a couple tanks and Japan is still several turns away. The Allies will have sufficient force to retake Karelia for Russia, probably before Japan can get to Novo. Now Germany will be spent and will probably collapse before Japan can muster sufficient force to take Moscow.
I think this is a good plan, but its not as good IMO as a power africa or power europe move with the bid.
@221B:
But again, Karelia is not Russia. In the worst case, Russia could just go with an all infantry buy for several turns and retreat the Asia forces and the Allies could land their fighters in Moscow.
OK, so you do this… abandon Karelia after Germany takes it and allow Germany to build there, pull back your forces in the East and Defend Russia.
WHAT are you going to build WITH? The 8 IPC’s from Russia? Maybe plus another 2-4 for Novo and Kazakh?
Once Germany takes Karelia and starts building there, Germany starts to build up troop volume also, at nearly 40 IPC’s to Russia’s pitiful total of around a dozen. 10 INF and 2 tanks per round vs. 4 INF build per round. Even with the Allied figs, it won;t take long for me to overwhelm that force while simlutaneously reinforcing other areas of Europe to protect against the UK and US trannied forces.
And I only have to really HOLD 3 territories: Germany, Eastern and Karelia. I can allow Western and even Southern to trade hands so long as I do not let the Allies build in Southern, and so long as I keep collect income on them at the end of my turn.
Well, I don’t think Germany will be able to keep it… or keep at a 40 ipc level because WE, SE, EE and even Karelia will be weakly defended. I could be wrong, but I don’t think Germany will be able to reinforce all of these before the allies can successful take some of them or before Germany will make Russia fall.
I do think your plan is good, but I don’t think it is good enough to win.
To put it into perspective, most people consider a 12 bid is necessary for the Axis to have a real chance of winning…so it might be the best possible way to win with an 8 bid. Here the odds are 50/50 on either UK or Karelia. As the Allies, I’d rather lose Karelia. Then what are the odds for being able to take Russia…I don’t know…I’m going to guess 50/50 here so perhaps 25% chance of winning Russia overall (the Allies could still win if Russia falls, but I’ll not consider it here).
With an 8 bid PA or PE plan, your odds for the Axis aren’t going to be that good either, I’d guess maybe 20%.
With a tech roll, the odds of one dice getting IT, or HB (the game winning technologies) is about 5%. 10% with rolling two dice.
Lots of guessing, so again, this may be the best approach with only an 8 bid.
@221B:
Well, I don’t think Germany will be able to keep it… or keep at a 40 ipc level because WE, SE, EE and even Karelia will be weakly defended. I could be wrong, but I don’t think Germany will be able to reinforce all of these before the allies can successful take some of them or before Germany will make Russia fall.
I think you might be forgetting a few points of the strat:
1: Russia is building in Russia, and has not viable forces for a counter (except maybe Caucuses)
2: UK has no fleet, so no units coming in to Europe on UK1, possibly not on UK 2 either.
That means Germany has at least G2 to start building up forces before they even have to THINK about anyone countering them. And that first build is going to be 41 IPC’s (up Karelia, Caucuses, FWA, FEA, and BC)
At the end of G2, Germany is going to get paid AT LEAST another 38 IPC’s (assuming Russia re-took Karelia in R2 and Germany did not take it back), perhaps more depending on when and how UK countered my blitzing forces in Africa. Even with Caucuses re-taken, I well could have another 41 IPC build for G3.
Compare that to a Russian build of 24 for R2, 16 for R3, 17 at most for R4
And UK at 30 for UK1, 26 for UK2, 20 for UK3.
And of course UK has some expensive builds to do… a carrier, loaded trannies…
Remember it initially costs UK 14 IPC’s to get 2 INF into battle and 13 IPC’s to get 1 tank into battle, while Germany only needs the usual 3 and 5 IPC’s respectively. That means Germany has 5 times UK’s economic power in turns 1-3 at least.
The opening concept is the threat of Sealion in G1 by building a Baltic tranny with the build. That threat assumes that Russia sends at least 1 fig to UK in R1 to counter. It also established RR so Germany would have 2 trannies in the Baltic for transporting forces to Karelia for G1 (if Russia did counter an immediate Sealion by sending a fig).
But it is not really a threat. Kar minus 1 ftr is not a big deal.
Also I believe there is only like a 3% chance of getting HB on G1 for Sealion. 16% to get a 1, then 16% to get whatever HB are, so .16 * .16 = .025 or 2.5%.
Is this right?
Again, so you get lucky and win a game via Sealion on G1, but if you do this everytime you’ll lose more than 95% of your games. I’d much rather be on the 95% win side. I’m sure with an 8 bid to Europe, Afr, or even Asia you can win more than 3-5% of your games.
I think what some of us are trying to get across is, yes the Kar strike or Sealion could work, but that that win is solely based on the outcome of whether you get good dice or bad, not whether you played a superior strategic game.
Gosh, I’m starting to sound like Panda. :-D
And over the long term if you employ this strat, you won’t win very many games.
It would be no different if you just played a regular game and started teching right away. Heck 3% of the time you get IT or HB with Ger in rd 1 and probably have a very good chance of winning that game. But that is not a fool proof strat for straight-up, and still doesn’t take away the need for bids.
Heck, someone who never ever played A&A before can come along roll for tech and beat me this way (the Sealion attack). I certainly wouldn’t call them a better player me. They just got lucky, it happens, and it happens maybe 3-5% of the time with this specific attack.
I think Panda (although it could have been another Club player, I’m not sure) used to say about 20% of the games are decided by dice, what you should look for are ways to win the 80% of the games that aren’t.
The chance of any specific tech is 1 in 36 per tech die.
The chance of any random tech is 1 in 6.
Ger 1 can afford 6, which gives 6 in 36 chances of HB.
The other valid tech would be LRA. Which also helps, but not as much dicewise, as HB.
SS helps, but even less.
NC also posted (maybe another thread) about IT, but Ger will need need income to use that. The R2-3 will strip much of that income away. KGF will commence, and Ger will be short on air power.
I thought the point of the $8 trn bid was that G1 invasion of UK when Rus does nothing to help defend the capital is that it gave decent odds without either tech.
UK sz:
trn + BB + Sub® + trn® vs. (Ger) 3 ftr + 2 Sub
8 vs. 13
UK
AA + 2 inf + arm + 2ftr + Bmr vs. 4 inf + 2 ftr + Bmr.
3 + 15 vs. 14
Just remember that the invasion is pretty much all or nothing. The loss of all of that air power will be wasted if UK holds, not to mention what R2 brings with $0 spent on the ground to counter.
Thanks Linkon, you got the point of the earlier part of the thread, basically that if Germany does do Sealion on G1, almost ANY tech helps them in that fight. LRA and HB being the 2 best, either one basically guaranteeing victory unless Russia sends a fig to help. But SS helps on the naval battle, Tech allows Germany to build up quickly if Sealion fails, and Rockets reduces Russia’s future builds.
The R2-R3 moves against Germany are not THAT significant. Germany will still have almost all of their land forces (down 4 INF).
So, with the initial strat as posted…
1. Russia does not send fig(s) to UK to defend against Sealion. Germany rolls tech and has 33% chance of hitting a tech that GUARANTEES Sealion victory. The other 67% of the time they have a slight edge. Call it a win 4 times in 5.
2. Russia does send a fig to UK blocking Sealion. Germany builds land forces and goes for Karelia and Caucuses. Caucuses is virtually empty (1 INF) and falls to BB and 2 INF. Karelia is a 50/50 fight, and if it falls Russia can;t re-take in R2 due to Japan figs flown in for defense. Also, UK has no fleet to tranny forces in before UK3.
I am not calling this a sure thing. I am calling it one hell of a first-strike strat for Germany that offers at least 50/50 chances of pulling off an Axis win for the game by making major gains in G1 that cannot be totally countered by the Allies until MANY turns later, assuming that Allies play extremely well, that dice go against the Axis, or the Axis player plays poorly.
In other words, it is a strategy that preserves game balance, and makes it worth playing out :-)
