13L Playoff Round2 hobo vs AllWeNeedIsLove

[gamerman01]

I just ran it by hand using my home-made spreadsheet, and I figure expected TUV difference to be about 110, which is almost exactly how it actually came out in the game.  So I agree with Hobo it went average.

[boldfresh]

the average result must take into account the fact the defender can win no?  so how can you say you were pretty much average given the fact that you were simply close to average presupposing an offensive win?

[boldfresh]

@Gamerman01:

I just ran it by hand using my home-made spreadsheet, and I figure expected TUV difference to be about 110, which is almost exactly how it actually came out in the game.  So I agree with Hobo it went average.

hobo said he came out 2-3 hits ahead so what gives?  are we saying that’s pretty much average?

[gamerman01]

I’m not pre-supposing an attacker win.  I just took expected hits and losses round by round by hand, and came up with pretty much the same survivors Hobo got, and a +110 TUV result.

[gamerman01]

@Boldfresh:

@Gamerman01:

I just ran it by hand using my home-made spreadsheet, and I figure expected TUV difference to be about 110, which is almost exactly how it actually came out in the game.  So I agree with Hobo it went average.

hobo said he came out 2-3 hits ahead so what gives?  are we saying that’s pretty much average?

Well, I saved planes in my simulation, and he lost them earlier.  I think that accounts for the couple extra hits.

[boldfresh]

i guess for a fleet battle (which so often skew crazy hard in my
experience) it is pretty close to average if it is within 2 or three hits. � :lol:

[gamerman01]

Point is, I agree that +107 is much closer to expected average than +58

[JDOW]

I think this comes from the fact the TUV change between “worst possible win for Axis” and closest loss for Axis is so big.
Worst possible win would be one BB remaining = +11. However once the defender wins it would be = -57.
This makes the median TUV-swing so much bigger than the average TUV-Swing and the Median-TUV Swing is closer to the most probably result.

So maybe the calculator would be better if it displayed the median.

And back to the original question: the battle went to odds then :-)

[boldfresh]

@JDOW:

I think this comes from the fact the TUV change between “worst possible win for Axis” and closest loss for Axis is so big.
Worst possible win would be one BB remaining = +11. However once the defender wins it would be = -57.
This makes the median TUV-swing so much bigger than the average TUV-Swing and the Median-TUV Swing is closer to the most probably result.

So maybe the calculator would be better if it displayed the median.

And back to the original question: the battle went to odds then :-)

Within 2 to 3 hits.  :-P

[Commando Brado]

Is this game still going on?

[hobo]

I’m guessing allweneedislove is on holiday vacation in the outbacks without internet access.  We might need to call the cops to check on dead bodies soon  :-o

[allweneedislove]

hobo, i apologize for my delay. i have been super busy but that is no excuse for not taking the 5 minutes to log on and let you know of the delay.

[hobo]

any eta?  just wondering since it’s heading into the 4th week now…

[Commando Brado]

cricket! cricket! LOL! Time to call the cops and search the outback for dead bodies!  :-D  :-o  :?  :lol:  :-P  :roll:  :wink:

[hobo]

uhh some kind of update here??  :?

[arathorn]

We are waiting!!!

[hobo]

Ok this is getting a little too much so I’m going to ask whoever is in charge to start a count down to call the game.

[boldfresh]

its just a month and a half break with no notice geez calm down hobo  :wink:

[gamerman01]

@hobo:

Ok this is getting a little too much so I’m going to ask whoever is in charge to start a count down to call the game.

Cmdr Jenn is in charge

Alexgreat and I are still going at it, although Alex may be close to quitting?  He’s making a desperate 50% attack with his German airforce right now…

But when we do get done with our game, I think this game should be called or at least very heavy pressure applied, but that’s just my opinion, and I’m speaking as a player in the playoffs.  Jennifer is in charge of this playoff.

[allweneedislove]

Hobo, I’m sorry to abandon our game. I was very busy, but I should have found the time to log on and resign.