13L Playoff Round2 hobo vs AllWeNeedIsLove

[hobo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 4

Purchase Units - Italians
            Italians buy 2 bombers and 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Italians
            2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine
            2 armour moved from Romania to Ukraine

Combat - Italians
            Battle in Ukraine
                Italians attack with 2 armour, 2 artilleries and 2 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 artillery and 1 factory_minor
                Italians win, taking Ukraine from Russians with 2 armour, 2 artilleries and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 1
                Casualties for Russians: 1 artillery
                Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Italians
            2 aaGuns moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine
            4 infantry moved from Romania to Bessarabia
            1 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Romania
            1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to Gibraltar
            1 artillery moved from Tunisia to Libya
            1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Alexandria to Libya
            1 bomber moved from Alexandria to Southern Italy
            2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Alexandria to Gibraltar
            1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Alexandria to Tobruk

Place Units - Italians
            2 bombers and 1 infantry placed in Southern Italy

Turn Complete - Italians
            Italians collect 14 PUs; end with 14 PUs total
            Objective Italians 2 Roman Empire: Italians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 19 PUs
            Objective Italians 1 Control The Mediterranean: Italians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 24 PUs

[allweneedislove]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 4

Purchase Units - ANZAC
            ANZAC buy 3 destroyers; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - ANZAC
            1 infantry moved from Queensland to 54 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 54 Sea Zone to 45 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Dutch New Guinea to 45 Sea Zone
            2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 45 Sea Zone to 44 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from 44 Sea Zone to Celebes
            1 destroyer moved from 54 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Burma to Sikang
            2 infantry moved from Egypt to Alexandria
                  British take Alexandria from Italians

Combat - ANZAC
            Battle in Celebes
            Battle in Sikang
                ANZAC attack with 1 fighter
                Japanese defend with 1 artillery
                    ANZAC roll dice for 1 fighter in Sikang, round 2 :  1/1 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery in Sikang, round 2 :  0/1 hits
                    1 artillery owned by the Japanese lost in Sikang
                ANZAC win, taking Celebes from Japanese with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery
            Battle in 43 Sea Zone
                ANZAC attack with 1 destroyer
                Japanese defend with 1 submarine
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 43 Sea Zone, round 2 :  0/1 hits
                    ANZAC roll dice for 1 destroyer in 43 Sea Zone, round 2 :  1/1 hits
                    1 submarine owned by the Japanese lost in 43 Sea Zone
                ANZAC win, taking 43 Sea Zone from Japanese with 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 submarine

Non Combat Move - ANZAC
            2 infantry moved from New South Wales to Queensland
            1 destroyer and 1 transport moved from 62 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Sikang to Kazakhstan
            2 infantry moved from Burma to India

Place Units - ANZAC
            3 destroyers placed in 62 Sea Zone

Turn Complete - ANZAC
            ANZAC collect 17 PUs; end with 17 PUs total
            Objective ANZAC 2 Control Strategic Islands: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 22 PUs

Territory Summary for ANZAC :

India : 2 infantry
    Queensland : 2 aaGuns, 1 airfield, 1 artillery, 1 harbour and 2 infantry
    New Zealand : 1 airfield and 1 harbour
    New South Wales : 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour
    Kazakhstan : 1 fighter
    Celebes : 1 flag, 2 infantry
    Java : 1 flag
    Dutch New Guinea : 1 flag
    44 Sea Zone : 1 transport
    43 Sea Zone : 1 flag, 1 destroyer
    54 Sea Zone : 1 destroyer and 1 transport
    62 Sea Zone : 3 destroyers
    Alexandria : 2 infantry

Production/PUs Summary :

Germans : 50 / 56
    Russians : 32 / 31
    Japanese : 44 / 50
    Americans : 54 / 74
    Chinese : 5 / 4
    British : 33 / 33
    UK_Pacific : 11 / 10
    Italians : 14 / 24
    ANZAC : 17 / 22
    French : 5 / 0
    Dutch : 0 / 0
    Mongolians : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Axis : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Allies : 0 / 0
    Neutral_True : 18 / 0

[allweneedislove]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 4

Combat Move - French

Non Combat Move - French
            1 infantry moved from Egypt to Alexandria
            1 infantry moved from Anglo Egyptian Sudan to Egypt
            1 fighter moved from United Kingdom to Morocco

Turn Complete - French

Territory Summary for French :

Alexandria : 1 infantry
    Egypt : 1 infantry
    United Kingdom : 2 infantry
    Morocco : 1 fighter

Production/PUs Summary :

Germans : 50 / 56
    Russians : 32 / 31
    Japanese : 44 / 50
    Americans : 54 / 74
    Chinese : 5 / 4
    British : 33 / 33
    UK_Pacific : 11 / 10
    Italians : 14 / 24
    ANZAC : 17 / 22
    French : 5 / 0
    Dutch : 0 / 0
    Mongolians : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Axis : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Allies : 0 / 0
    Neutral_True : 18 / 0

[hobo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 5

Politics - Germans

Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 1 bomber, 5 mech_infantrys and 4 submarines; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Germans
            1 infantry moved from Western Ukraine to Bryansk
            1 infantry moved from Belarus to Smolensk
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Bessarabia to Smolensk
            1 armour and 4 mech_infantrys moved from Baltic States to Archangel
            12 armour, 9 artilleries, 23 infantry and 12 mech_infantrys moved from Belarus to Bryansk
            5 infantry moved from Karelia to Novgorod
                  Germans take Novgorod from Russians
            1 infantry moved from Vyborg to Novgorod
            1 submarine moved from 125 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone

Combat - Germans
            Battle in Archangel
                Germans attack with 1 armour and 4 mech_infantrys
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans win, taking Archangel from Russians with 1 armour and 4 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Smolensk
                Germans attack with 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans win, taking Smolensk from Russians with 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Bryansk
                Germans attack with 12 armour, 9 artilleries, 24 infantry and 12 mech_infantrys
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans win, taking Bryansk from Russians with 12 armour, 9 artilleries, 23 infantry and 12 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Germans
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Smolensk to Belarus
            2 aaGuns moved from Eastern Poland to Belarus
            1 aaGun moved from Western Ukraine to Bryansk
            1 armour and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Eastern Poland to Bryansk
            1 mech_infantry moved from Baltic States to Bryansk
            10 mech_infantrys moved from Germany to Eastern Poland
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Western Germany to Poland
            2 aaGuns, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from France to Western Germany
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Bessarabia to Western Germany

Place Units - Germans
            3 submarines placed in 93 Sea Zone
            1 submarine placed in 110 Sea Zone
            1 bomber placed in Western Germany
            5 mech_infantrys placed in Germany

Turn Complete - Germans
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 0
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 125 Sea Zone. Rolls: 6,6
            Germans collect 55 PUs; end with 55 PUs total
            Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 60 PUs
            Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 65 PUs
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Bryansk: 5 mech_infantrys
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Archangel: 5 mech_infantrys
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

[allweneedislove]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 5

Purchase Units - Russians
            Russians buy 1 artillery and 9 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Russians
            1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Russia to Smolensk
            1 mech_infantry moved from Volgograd to Sikang
                  Chinese take Sikang from Japanese

Combat - Russians
            Battle in Smolensk
                Russians attack with 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                Germans defend with 1 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Smolensk, round 2 :  1/3 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Smolensk, round 2 :  0/1 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Smolensk
                Russians win, taking Smolensk from Germans with 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Russians
            2 artilleries moved from Vologda to Russia
            1 infantry moved from Russia to Vologda
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Smolensk to Russia
            1 aaGun moved from Rostov to Volgograd
            1 infantry moved from Rostov to Tambov
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Volgograd to Kazakhstan
            2 armour and 2 mech_infantrys moved from Samara to Russia

Place Units - Russians
            1 infantry placed in Volgograd
            1 artillery and 8 infantry placed in Russia

Turn Complete - Russians
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 3
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 6 Sea Zone. Rolls: 6,2,4,1,5,6,2
            Russians collect 25 PUs (3 lost to blockades); end with 25 PUs total

Territory Summary for Russians :

Korea : 1 flag
    Manchuria : 2 aaGuns and 16 infantry
    Sikang : 1 mech_infantry
    Kazakhstan : 2 mech_infantrys
    Rostov : 1 infantry
    Russia : 3 aaGuns, 1 airfield, 2 armour, 13 artilleries, 1 factory_major, 1 fighter, 51 infantry, 3 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber
    Tambov : 1 infantry
    Vologda : 1 infantry
    Volgograd : 1 aaGun, 1 factory_minor and 1 infantry
    Smolensk : 1 infantry
    125 Sea Zone : 1 submarine
    115 Sea Zone : 1 cruiser and 1 submarine

Production/PUs Summary :

Germans : 54 / 65
    Russians : 28 / 25
    Japanese : 43 / 50
    Americans : 54 / 74
    Chinese : 6 / 4
    British : 33 / 33
    UK_Pacific : 11 / 10
    Italians : 14 / 24
    ANZAC : 17 / 22
    French : 5 / 0
    Dutch : 0 / 0
    Mongolians : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Axis : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Allies : 0 / 0
    Neutral_True : 18 / 0

[hobo]

TripleA Move Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 5

Purchase Units - Japanese
            Japanese buy 2 artilleries, 2 destroyers, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens;

Combat Move - Japanese
            2 infantry moved from Japan to 6 Sea Zone
            2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 6 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from 26 Sea Zone to Hawaiian Islands
            1 battleship, 2 carriers, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 35 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            1 battleship, 2 carriers, 1 cruiser, 1 fighter and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 37 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Kwangsi to 44 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Kansu to Tsinghai
                  Japanese take Tsinghai from Chinese
            1 infantry moved from Kansu to Novosibirsk
                  Japanese take Novosibirsk from Russians
            1 infantry moved from Kansu to Timguska
                  Japanese take Timguska from Russians
            2 infantry moved from Shensi to Sikang
            1 infantry moved from Kwangsi to Yunnan
            1 infantry moved from Malaya to Shan State
            1 bomber moved from Kwangsi to Sikang
            1 infantry moved from Malaya to 37 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 37 Sea Zone to 41 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 41 Sea Zone to Sumatra
            1 infantry moved from Malaya to 37 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 37 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Kweichow to Shan State
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Kweichow to Yunnan
            1 infantry moved from Malaya to Shan State
            1 infantry moved from Philippines to 35 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 35 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 6 Sea Zone to Korea

[hobo]

scramble orders for australia, and if possible ool to save time.

[allweneedislove]

shit, i can’t believe i forgot to block your fleet on anzac’s turn.

i never did the math on the battle and assumed i would get wiped out, but i have a 15% chance at winning this.
yes scramble both planes.

my ool is tip battleship and carriers, 1 sub, 1 destroyer from each nation. after that please ask again

[hobo]

well 9 hits first round, so you have to choose another hit between a tipped ship, cruisers, or planes

[allweneedislove]

lose a carrier

[hobo]

I just went with best def on round 2 since I got 8 hits and you didn’t have much left.

[hobo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 5

Purchase Units - Japanese
            Japanese buy 2 artilleries, 2 destroyers, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens;

Combat Move - Japanese
            2 infantry moved from Japan to 6 Sea Zone
            2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 6 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from 26 Sea Zone to Hawaiian Islands
            1 battleship, 2 carriers, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 35 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            1 battleship, 2 carriers, 1 cruiser, 1 fighter and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 37 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Kwangsi to 44 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Kansu to Tsinghai
                  Japanese take Tsinghai from Chinese
            1 infantry moved from Kansu to Novosibirsk
                  Japanese take Novosibirsk from Russians
            1 infantry moved from Kansu to Timguska
                  Japanese take Timguska from Russians
            2 infantry moved from Shensi to Sikang
            1 infantry moved from Kwangsi to Yunnan
            1 infantry moved from Malaya to Shan State
            1 bomber moved from Kwangsi to Sikang
            1 infantry moved from Malaya to 37 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 37 Sea Zone to 41 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 41 Sea Zone to Sumatra
            1 infantry moved from Malaya to 37 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 37 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Kweichow to Shan State
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Kweichow to Yunnan
            1 infantry moved from Malaya to Shan State
            1 infantry moved from Philippines to 35 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 35 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 6 Sea Zone to Korea

Combat - Japanese
            Americans scrambles 2 units out of Queensland to defend against the attack in 54 Sea Zone
            Battle in 54 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 2 battleships, 4 carriers, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 4 fighters, 2 submarines and 4 tactical_bombers
                ANZAC defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport; Americans defend with 1 battleship, 3 carriers, 2 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 5 fighters, 1 submarine, 1 tactical_bomber and 3 transports
                Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Americans
                Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Japanese
                Units damaged: 2 carriers owned by the Americans
                Units damaged: 1 carrier owned by the Japanese and 1 battleship owned by the Japanese
                Japanese win, taking 54 Sea Zone from Americans with 2 battleships, 2 carriers, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 116
                Casualties for Japanese: 2 carriers, 3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers
                Casualties for ANZAC: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                Casualties for Americans: 1 battleship, 3 carriers, 2 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 5 fighters, 1 submarine, 1 tactical_bomber and 3 transports
            Battle in Java
            Battle in Hawaiian Islands
            Battle in Korea
            Battle in Sumatra
            Battle in 44 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 1 bomber
                ANZAC defend with 1 transport
                Japanese win, taking Java from ANZAC, taking Hawaiian Islands from Americans, taking Korea from Russians, taking Sumatra from UK_Pacific with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
                Casualties for ANZAC: 1 transport
            Battle in Sikang
                Japanese attack with 1 bomber and 2 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 mech_infantry
                Japanese win, taking Sikang from Chinese with 1 bomber and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
                Casualties for Russians: 1 mech_infantry
            Battle in Yunnan
                Japanese attack with 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                British defend with 1 infantry; Chinese defend with 1 airfield
                Japanese win, taking Yunnan from Chinese with 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for British: 1 infantry
            Battle in Shan State
                Japanese attack with 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                British defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese win, taking Shan State from UK_Pacific with 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for British: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Japanese
            1 aaGun moved from Kweichow to Hunan
            1 armour, 3 artilleries and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Kwangsi to Hunan
            1 bomber moved from 44 Sea Zone to Philippines
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Malaya to 37 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 37 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 6 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Anhwe to Jehol
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Kiangsu to Anhwe
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yunnan to Kansu
            1 armour moved from Kweichow to Kansu
            1 bomber moved from Sikang to Anhwe
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Shan State to Hunan

Place Units - Japanese
            1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Kiangsu
            1 artillery, 1 fighter and 1 infantry placed in Japan
            2 destroyers and 1 transport placed in 6 Sea Zone

Turn Complete - Japanese
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 3
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 43 Sea Zone. Rolls: 3
            Japanese collect 58 PUs (3 lost to blockades); end with 58 PUs total
            Objective Japanese 3 Control Honolulu Or Sydney Or Calcutta Or Western United States: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 63 PUs
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Japanese from 19 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Japanese to 35 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

[boldfresh]

Did the battle go to odds?

[JDOW]

Average was +58. However I guess this is not easy to determine as average is based on optimal OOL which means tipping all Japanese carriers first.
I would guess the real average would have been lower in order to keep some landing space for the planes.

[hobo]

Average is much higher than 58.  You are not accounting for the transports lost.  Since the ool is slightly different, I calculated the losses per round and came out ahead in the battle by 2-3 hits so I should have lost the other tipped carrier and subs.  It’s not much different from the raw average survivors assuming carriers go first of +107 remaining or tipped battleships, 4tac, cruiser, and a fighter or 8 hits remaining.  I came out with 11 hits remaining.

[boldfresh]

So battle went to odds right hobo?

[JDOW]

@hobo:

Average is much higher than 58.  You are not accounting for the transports lost.  Since the ool is slightly different, I calculated the losses per round and came out ahead in the battle by 2-3 hits so I should have lost the other tipped carrier and subs.  It’s not much different from the raw average survivors assuming carriers go first of +107 remaining or tipped battleships, 4tac, cruiser, and a fighter or 8 hits remaining.  I came out with 11 hits remaining.

I am afraid I cannot follow. The +58 already took 3 TTs into account. I just put everything that was in that sz in the calculator and pressed the button. Why should the expected outcome be better than the Calculator calculation?
Sorry if I missed something btw :-)

[hobo]

maybe we are just looking at different things.  what I look at is the total def ipc value, or 211.  the average attacker loss is about 114.  subtract the two and that’s the average battle score assuming the attacker wins.  it’s close to 100.  the way I usually do things is to break the combat into rounds and calculate the hits.  from that you can get a close approximation of the surviving units.  in the case for this battle, I had 125 ipc worth left which is a little skewed due to the other tipped carrier I didn’t expect to have left.  in other words I loss 95 ipc worth, slightly less than the average.  add the carrier and a sub then it’s about average so again, I came out about 2-3 hits above average depending on how you want to look at things.  out of close to 70 dice rolled in the combat it’s not statistically far off the mean.  the results of the battle was about a 75-80% occurrence.

[JDOW]

@hobo:

maybe we are just looking at different things.  what I look at is the total def ipc value, or 211.  the average attacker loss is about 114.  subtract the two and that’s the average battle score assuming the attacker wins.  it’s close to 100.  the way I usually do things is to break the combat into rounds and calculate the hits.  from that you can get a close approximation of the surviving units.

Hey hobo, thanks for your explanation, I appreciate that.

Trust me, I do not want to annoy you or anything or I am just a fan of this game and I would to understand the calculation of battle outcomes in case I make a substantial mistake in so doing. Because I still do not understand.  :-(

Just a guess I have: If the calculator says the average outcome is +58 I am aware that this does not have to mean that +58 is the most likely outcome. Extreme example:A coinflip battle runs with 60% at +100 and 40% at -200 (nothing inbetween): Now the average is -20 although +100 is the most likely outcome (60%), so +100 is NOT a super big lucky swing but just happens 60% of the time. Is it this way you argue?

However I might still need to ask why you get a different average result than the calculator does. What does the calculator do wrong? Why is your average so much better even if you cannot just tip all carriers round 1?

Sorry again, I really don’t want to bother anybody or talk anybody into “Axis were so lucky”. I am just afraid I might have wrong thought processes or that I am missing something.

Cheers,
Tobias

[hobo]

not sure how I could explain it the way I just did.  all I can say is you are probably not looking at it the right way.  if you are just using the battle calc then just do this: 1) take the average attacker ipcs left, 2) subtract it from the starting attacker total(aka how much the attacker lost), then 3) subtract that from the starting total for the defender(since when the defender loses, it loses everything).  as I noted, that gets you close to 100 battle score.  I have NO idea where you get 58 or whatever.

the other way is to break the combat into rounds as I noted and you come out with similar results.  the reason is the average defender hits in the first round have NO effect on the total attacker combat power in the second round since it’s just tipping ships and losing 0 combat attack value carriers.  since the average combat length is 3 rounds, what you choose as losses, ie keeping 1 carrier vs doing default losses, really has little effect on the total outcome.

what happened in this battle, ie I came out ahead by 2-3 hits above average, was like a 70% occurrence if we just simplify each hit as over/under as about 5%, calculated compared to the total average dice rolled needed to conclude the combat(I went into this above).  that’s why the defender only has a 15% chance to win because they not only need a combination of attacker hitting below normal, but also the defender hitting above normal to a tally of 12 or so.

if you want to call this lucky go ahead as some of the people have commented when they compared a 33% occurrence for me with my italian bomber battle vs the 2% occurrence against me when his single ships shot down 3 planes and tipped my battleship.  interesting comparison.  to top that off, I nearly lost a 90% battle vs the USA fleet at gib the following turn when I should have had 3 surviving hits remaining on “average.”  combine the two, germany should have 6 extra air units.  just fyi, I will accept the this trade and lose the tipped japanese carrier and couple subs any day.  then again, apparently my success with games played here have been purely luck in the eyes of some.