@Mary:
You know Bayes Theorem, right?
Yes.
Every black raven we find is evidence that non-black ravens don’t exist.
No. :)
As you said you know Bayes Theorem …. have you heard of the Prosecutor’s Fallacy? That is what ID people usually use. An importantn point is:
We have no idea how often life has evolved in the universe. We can only guess and there creationists tend to use very small numbers (out of the gaps of course: I remember how it was doubted by creationists that other solar systems had planets … then -once we found planets (huge gas ones)- how they doubted that earthlike planets existed outside our solar system … and of course, they doubt that life would start there. How can you tell that having an earthlike planet does not lead to life in 85% of each cases ? Then, all life would evolve, and our sample suggests that it evolves into something intelligent.
Creationists all seem to follow a Bayesian definition of probability. Science usually takes a frequentist definition (when it comes down to experiments at least). We can use Bayes Theorem though: if we do, then suddenly -just because we exist- the probabilities for having natural constants, number of dimensions etc. the way they are is not flat over any possible value anymore (it is not evenly distributed). Indeed, just because we are here, the values that we see have higher probabilities.
About your “carbon chauvinism” and Bayes: So, you have a box with an uncertain number of balls in there (=number of planets that have life). You draw one. It is white (=carbon based life). What is the probability that there are no black balls (si-based life) in there ?
Materialism is just as much a religious belief as belief in God. Most atheists I’ve met are much worse than theists when it comes to discussing their beliefs.
Why would you try to bring your belief into theirs then? Are you christian missionary, trying to convert all those materialist scientists ;)?
Just face it: Science “won” over the church, although the church had a massive head-start. Still, it took more than 7 days for the universe to form and intelligent life to come. Rome is not center of the earth is not center of the solar system is not center of the universe.
I think this argument is by humans who just hate it to be “usual” and not “special”. Get over it ;) :).
BTW, Hawking stated that the probability for a universe like this to be created out of a Big Bang is about 98%, allowing the universe wavefunction to come into existance with nothing there before it.
@Linkon:
Mankind has practiced ID for centuries.
We are much better at it now.
Just think of all the different breeds of dogs, cats, horses, cows, corn, salmon, trout, tilapia, grapes, etc…
Tststs….
you can’t say “look, evolution doesn’t work: It can’t explain macro-evolution” and then say “look, ID works: Although i have to ignore macroevolution”.
…
Well, that is if you want to keep up the terms Macro- and micro- evolution. AFAIK only ID/creationists people use these terms. In evolution theory, there is no distinction AFAIR.