XDAP Final… eh, i mean, Semifinal - Allweneedishank vs. TeamBoldDutch

[allweneedislove]

@Gamerman01:

OK, the mythbusters result is in.

The myth on trial:
The Axis has been significantly luckier in attacks where the attacker had all air (first casualties would be air)

The results:

MYTH

See attached.
I concur with AWN (although he should have said ONE loss, no remainder in Amu), that the losses for both sides have been nearly DEAD EVEN, the WHOLE MATCH

The results are almost as even as they could possibly be.  If you look at the “cumulative” column, you will see that the disparity in expected air losses in all-air battles never grows to more than 1.5, so you can’t argue cumulative effects from early luck being greater than late luck, etc etc

The final cumulative total - Axis has advantage of less than ONE PLANE

Find something else to complain about Bold.  This one’s all in your head.  You have a point about the Cow game, but not this one.

Now here’s an interesting side note:
Allies have risked their air 18 times
Axis, only 10 times, but this does not take into account the larger risks of the J2 air strike or Amur, although the Axis knew they had the low luck reroll option backing them up both times.

Disclaimer:  I only went through the game once (took me about an hour) and have not double checked.  I might have missed some AA fire or something.
I did not see any dogfights before SBR’s.  If you see anything I missed, let me know and I can amend the worksheet.

Thanks, that was fun  :-)

i see you enjoy wasting time/making spread sheets.

i am not above making mistakes, but i am going to double check you results.
my quick and dirty sheet only took 20 min so i could have missed somethings, but i thought it was going to be quick and accurate.

[allweneedislove]

@allweneedislove:

i see you enjoy wasting time/making spread sheets.

it should have read
i see you also enjoy wasting time/making spread sheets.
without the also it could be taken as an insult

[boldfresh]

If u r gonna do it do it right is gamers philosophy.

U are sending all 4 interceptors up.  Dutch is rolling in about 10 min.

[allweneedislove]

@Boldfresh:

If u r gonna do it do it right is gamers philosophy.

U are sending all 4 interceptors up.  Dutch is rolling in about 10 min.

yes all 4. sorry i should have been more clear.

[allweneedislove]

@allweneedislove:

@Gamerman01:

OK, the mythbusters result is in.

The myth on trial:
The Axis has been significantly luckier in attacks where the attacker had all air (first casualties would be air)

The results:

MYTH

See attached.
I concur with AWN (although he should have said ONE loss, no remainder in Amu), that the losses for both sides have been nearly DEAD EVEN, the WHOLE MATCH

The results are almost as even as they could possibly be.  If you look at the “cumulative” column, you will see that the disparity in expected air losses in all-air battles never grows to more than 1.5, so you can’t argue cumulative effects from early luck being greater than late luck, etc etc

The final cumulative total - Axis has advantage of less than ONE PLANE

Find something else to complain about Bold.  This one’s all in your head.  You have a point about the Cow game, but not this one.

Now here’s an interesting side note:
Allies have risked their air 18 times
Axis, only 10 times, but this does not take into account the larger risks of the J2 air strike or Amur, although the Axis knew they had the low luck reroll option backing them up both times.

Disclaimer:  I only went through the game once (took me about an hour) and have not double checked.  I might have missed some AA fire or something.
I did not see any dogfights before SBR’s.  If you see anything I missed, let me know and I can amend the worksheet.

Thanks, that was fun  :-)

i see you enjoy wasting time/making spread sheets.

i am not above making mistakes, but i am going to double check you results.
my quick and dirty sheet only took 20 min so i could have missed somethings, but i thought it was going to be quick and accurate.

ok just scanned your sheet and the map.
this took me longer than making my sheet.

here is what you had missed.
g1 france
rus4 west ukraine
j4 burma
g5 smolensk

and i noticed i missed uk6 on gibralter on my sheet.

also on my sheet on j2 szechwan and usa2 sz6 i used .81 and .79 and you used 1 and 1, i used expected results if you win, and you used expected total results. but this will not matter as both cancel each other out.

i did not go check the math on all your individual results but assume they were correct.

i did miss the gibralter attack that hit 1 of 3 aaguns. so that would reduce the allies by .5 planes.

so taking my missed gibralter attack into account
axis have lost 1.417 more planes than average.
allies have kept 0.77 more planes than average.

[boldfresh]

With the kamis we r already at disadvantage then.

[boldfresh]

Even I guess.  Pretty cool.  Dunno about all the rest of the dice.  Vologda was a big swing 2 inf for nuthin.  Great game either way… dice havent been much of a factor yet.  Lets see what this round brings its pretty dicey with the intercept and sbr.

[boldfresh]

I havent felt like the dice have been bad for either side.  The kami roll just came out of nowhere and bit us in the heel.  :wink:

[boldfresh]

U took our tacs but we took your ftrs.  Fair trade I guess.

[boldfresh]

Dutch they need to say what 2 ftrs they lose b4 I do uk.

[allweneedislove]

can you please post the map.

[dutchmand]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 10

Purchase Units - Americans
            Americans buy 1 factory_minor, 5 fighters, 1 infantry, 1 submarine and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Combat Move - Americans
            4 bombers moved from Finland to Western Germany
            1 infantry moved from Norway to Sweden
                  Americans take Sweden from Germans
            1 infantry moved from Rio de Oro to 91 Sea Zone
            1 mech_infantry moved from Rio de Oro to 91 Sea Zone
            1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 transport moved from 91 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 110 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
            1 mech_infantry moved from 110 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Brazil to Bolivia
            1 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Bolivia to Chile
            1 armour moved from Jehol to Shantung
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 19 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from 18 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            7 submarines moved from 19 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            5 submarines moved from 6 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Jehol to Anhwe
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 19 Sea Zone to Chahar
            4 fighters moved from Central Mongolia to Chahar
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to Shantung
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to Shantung
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to Shantung
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to Shantung
            1 artillery moved from Jehol to 19 Sea Zone
            3 fighters moved from 19 Sea Zone to Anhwe
            1 fighter moved from Chahar to Anhwe
            1 infantry moved from Okinawa to 19 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 19 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 20 Sea Zone to Kiangsi
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 19 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from 20 Sea Zone to Kwangtung

Combat - Americans
            Air Battle in Western Germany
                Americans attacks with 4 units heading to Western Germany
                Germans launches 4 interceptors out of Western Germany
                2 fighters owned by the Italians lost in Western Germany
                Air Battle is over, the remaining bombers go on to their targets
            Strategic bombing raid in Western Germany
                Bombing raid in Western Germany rolls: 4 and causes: 4 damage to unit: harbour
                Bombing raid in Western Germany rolls: 7,4,8 and causes: 6 damage to unit: airfield
                Bombing raid in Western Germany causes 10 damage total.  Damaged units is as follows: harbour = 4, airfield = 6
            Battle in Chile
                Americans attack with 1 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys
                Neutral_True defend with 2 infantry
                Americans win, taking Chile from Neutral_True with 1 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
                Casualties for Neutral_True: 2 infantry
            Battle in 21 Sea Zone
                Americans attack with 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
                Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
                Americans win with 3 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer
                Casualties for Americans: 1 tactical_bomber
            Battle in Anhwe
                Americans attack with 4 fighters and 1 infantry
                Japanese defend with 1 mech_infantry
                Americans win with 4 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 1
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 mech_infantry
                Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry
            Battle in 20 Sea Zone
                Americans attack with 1 infantry, 13 submarines, 1 tactical_bomber and 2 transports
                Japanese defend with 1 destroyer
                Americans win, taking 20 Sea Zone from Japanese with 13 submarines, 1 tactical_bomber and 2 transports remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 destroyer
            Battle in Kiangsi
            Battle in Kwangtung
            Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
            Battle in Shantung
                Americans attack with 1 armour and 4 fighters
                Japanese defend with 1 mech_infantry
                Americans win, taking Kiangsi from Japanese, taking Kwangtung from Japanese, taking Normandy Bordeaux from Germans, taking Shantung from Japanese with 1 armour and 4 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 mech_infantry
            Battle in Chahar
                Americans attack with 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
                Japanese defend with 1 mech_infantry
                Americans win with 3 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -7
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 mech_infantry
                Casualties for Americans: 1 tactical_bomber
            Cleaning up after air battles

Non Combat Move - Americans
            1 artillery moved from 19 Sea Zone to Shantung
            3 fighters moved from 21 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            4 fighters moved from Shantung to 20 Sea Zone
            4 fighters moved from Anhwe to 20 Sea Zone
            1 battleship, 8 carriers and 2 destroyers moved from 19 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Chahar to 20 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Chahar to Yenisey
            1 fighter moved from Chahar to Yenisey
            1 carrier moved from 25 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
            3 destroyers moved from 10 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Western United States to Wake Island
            1 destroyer moved from 125 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
            1 aaGun moved from Norway to 125 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Norway to 125 Sea Zone
            1 aaGun, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 125 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
            1 aaGun moved from 110 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
            1 infantry moved from 110 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
            1 transport moved from 125 Sea Zone to 111 Sea Zone
            1 aaGun moved from Scotland to 111 Sea Zone
            1 aaGun and 1 transport moved from 111 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
            1 aaGun moved from 110 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
            4 bombers moved from Western Germany to Scotland
            1 destroyer moved from 26 Sea Zone to 63 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Western United States to Eastern United States
            2 fighters moved from Western United States to Wake Island
            1 aaGun moved from Central United States to Western United States

Place Units - Americans
            1 infantry placed in Western United States
            3 fighters placed in Eastern United States
            2 fighters placed in Western United States
            1 factory_minor placed in Norway
            1 transport placed in 10 Sea Zone
            1 submarine placed in 6 Sea Zone

Turn Complete - Americans
            Americans collect 69 PUs; end with 70 PUs total
            Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 75 PUs
            Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 80 PUs
            Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 90 PUs

[dutchmand]

TripleA Move Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 10

Purchase Units - Chinese
            Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed
            Chinese buy 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Combat Move - Chinese
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from Western United States: 1 fighter
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to Wake Island: 1 fighter
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 infantry moved from Jehol to Anhwe
                  Chinese take Anhwe from Japanese
            10 infantry moved from Jehol to Shantung

[dutchmand]

Edited the fighter to Wake, built 4 in E US, 1 in W US.  Not sure how I messed that up.  It’s on the China map.

[dutchmand]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 10

Purchase Units - Chinese
            Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed
            Chinese buy 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Combat Move - Chinese
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from Western United States: 1 fighter
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to Wake Island: 1 fighter
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 infantry moved from Jehol to Anhwe
                  Chinese take Anhwe from Japanese
            10 infantry moved from Jehol to Shantung

Combat - Chinese

Non Combat Move - Chinese

Place Units - Chinese
            2 infantry placed in Shantung

Turn Complete - Chinese
            Chinese collect 8 PUs; end with 9 PUs total

[dutchmand]

Heh, forgot to place the Chinese and post the right map…… posted the combat map.

[dutchmand]

Now, may the Royal AirForce sink every last bastard fascist in the Baltic.  Good luck B.

[boldfresh]

@DutchmanD:

Heh, forgot to place the Chinese and post the right map…… posted the combat map.

you must be shellshocked from losing two more tacs  :lol: (z21 and chahar are two more hits against all air for your chart AWN).

[gamerman01]

AWN, we both enjoy analyzing numbers and spreadsheets and we are the top 2 players in the league.  Coincidence?

THAT made a difference!  I missed those 4 battles because I was overlooking AA in the first 5 rounds and failed to go back and check for them.

So now, in fact, the ALLIES have had the edge in air only battles throughout the game.

Overall net of 1.37 with Allied advantage of approximately +2 aircraft from G5 through UK9!

And it seems it has been growing since last night?  Guess I will update again.

Gamer’s audit of BoldDutch v AWNHank air battles.xls

[gamerman01]

@Boldfresh:

Thanks gamer u proved my point.  Slight axis advantage  :oops:  :-P

NOPE!  All the data is in now, and it has been an ALLIED advantage!