XDAP Final… eh, i mean, Semifinal - Allweneedishank vs. TeamBoldDutch

[Hank13]

@Boldfresh:

@Gamerman01:

Bold’s perception of luck has always been warped  :-)

i usually get good luck when i don’t need it and bad luck when i need good luck.

I think this is somehow built into axis and allies as it seems this is always true!

[gamerman01]

I didn’t expect you to agree with me!  :lol:

[boldfresh]

The whole match could hinge on the results of the us and uk dice this round.  If it goes well we are right back on track.  If it goes bad it is going to be a giant dogfight.  Seems to be inexorably heading in that direction but you never know with dice.

[boldfresh]

gamerman:  i would welcome an independent 3rd party audit.

[allweneedislove]

i went through all the combats in the game that had only air as attacker or was an aagun battle rolled.

i just tabulated hits and misses by the defenders.

however there were 3 battles that were not 80% or above for the attacker to win in the first round of combat. for those 3 battles i just did the expected outcome vs the actual outcome.

i am surprised with how close to average the results in air battles are.

axis have lost 1.417 more planes than average.
allies have kept 1.27 more planes than average.

xdap rd8 air battles dice.xls

[boldfresh]

is this including the first battle of amur?

[boldfresh]

because you got those planes all back.  and there have been an awful lot of strafes of chinese infantry that have not hit a japanese aircraft.

[boldfresh]

@allweneedislove:

i went through all the combats in the game that had only air as attacker or was an aagun battle rolled.

i just tabulated hits and misses by the defenders.

however there were 3 battles that were not 80% or above for the attacker to win in the first round of combat. for those 3 battles i just did the expected outcome vs the actual outcome.

i am surprised with how close to average the results in air battles are.

axis have lost 1.417 more planes than average.
allies have kept 1.27 more planes than average.

i was pretty certain your audit would come back positive for you, that’s why i’m asking gamerman for an independent audit.  :wink:

[boldfresh]

difficult to make sense of your spreadsheet, maybe a little more clues as to what is what?

[gamerman01]

Sure, I can give you a second opinion late tonight

If Allweneed’s results are correct and unbiased, then all I can say is

BWAHAHAHAHA!!  :lol:

[allweneedislove]

@Boldfresh:

is this including the first battle of amur?

no we rerolled it lowluck and there were no aaagun rolls in lowluck as it was 2 losses no remainder

[boldfresh]

Well who knows what battles hes using.  Gamer u can do your all inclusive audit if u wish  :wink:

[gamerman01]

@Boldfresh:

Well who knows what battles hes using.  Gamer u can do your all inclusive audit if u wish  :wink:

Caught up on the crazy Cardinals game on the DVR and am live and waiting.
Top of the 13th  :roll:

Audit commencing

[gamerman01]

OK, the mythbusters result is in.

The myth on trial:
The Axis has been significantly luckier in attacks where the attacker had all air (first casualties would be air)

The results:

MYTH

See attached.
I concur with AWN (although he should have said ONE loss, no remainder in Amu), that the losses for both sides have been nearly DEAD EVEN, the WHOLE MATCH

The results are almost as even as they could possibly be.  If you look at the “cumulative” column, you will see that the disparity in expected air losses in all-air battles never grows to more than 1.5, so you can’t argue cumulative effects from early luck being greater than late luck, etc etc

The final cumulative total - Axis has advantage of less than ONE PLANE

Find something else to complain about Bold.  This one’s all in your head.  You have a point about the Cow game, but not this one.

Now here’s an interesting side note:
Allies have risked their air 18 times
Axis, only 10 times, but this does not take into account the larger risks of the J2 air strike or Amur, although the Axis knew they had the low luck reroll option backing them up both times.

Disclaimer:  I only went through the game once (took me about an hour) and have not double checked.  I might have missed some AA fire or something.
I did not see any dogfights before SBR’s.  If you see anything I missed, let me know and I can amend the worksheet.

Thanks, that was fun  :-)

Gamer’s audit of BoldDutch v AWNHank air battles.xls

[gamerman01]

@Boldfresh:

@Gamerman01:

Bold’s perception of luck has always been warped  :-)

and no this is not true.  i am especially unlucky sometimes and i am keenly aware of when that is.  for some reason, i usually get good luck when i don’t need it and bad luck when i need good luck.

remember those 24 twos i rolled on defense in belarus the last time we played FTF gamer?  how many hits did i get again?   :wink: :-)

You proved my point.  You remember the times you get diced more than the times you got lucky.  Probably all of us do - I think that’s what Hank was meaning, maybe.

[boldfresh]

Thanks gamer u proved my point.  Slight axis advantage  :oops:  :-P

[boldfresh]

a lot is going to be decided this round.  the USA cruiser loss (not factored into the “slight” axis advantage) makes things tight, but the americans are BOLD.

we will need a decision from you on whether you will scramble in w germany against 4 strategic bombers.  just giving you a heads up so you can confirm when dutch posts his map.

[dutchmand]

TripleA Move Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 10

Purchase Units - Americans
            Americans buy 1 factory_minor, 5 fighters, 1 infantry, 1 submarine and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Combat Move - Americans
            4 bombers moved from Finland to Western Germany
            1 infantry moved from Norway to Sweden
                  Americans take Sweden from Germans
            1 infantry moved from Rio de Oro to 91 Sea Zone
            1 mech_infantry moved from Rio de Oro to 91 Sea Zone
            1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 transport moved from 91 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 110 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
            1 mech_infantry moved from 110 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Brazil to Bolivia
            1 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Bolivia to Chile
            1 armour moved from Jehol to Shantung
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 19 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from 18 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            7 submarines moved from 19 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            5 submarines moved from 6 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Jehol to Anhwe
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 19 Sea Zone to Chahar
            4 fighters moved from Central Mongolia to Chahar
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to Shantung
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to Shantung
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to Shantung
            1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to Shantung
            1 artillery moved from Jehol to 19 Sea Zone
            3 fighters moved from 19 Sea Zone to Anhwe
            1 fighter moved from Chahar to Anhwe
            1 infantry moved from Okinawa to 19 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 19 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 20 Sea Zone to Kiangsi
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 19 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from 20 Sea Zone to Kwangtung

[boldfresh]

Intercept orders in hamburg kindly requested.

[allweneedislove]

throw em up