Scenerio: Would you take Kar in Rd 1?

[BlackWatch]

@DarthMaximus:

Yeah.

I was going to take Yak, bigtime.

If his UK ftr landed there, I’d brought in all my planes and would have sacked 1 to take it.

If his ftr went to counter Egy, I would’ve looked at taking China as well with my 3rd ftr.

I would have had to roll them out on my roller, but if I recall I think it was doable to take both.

I also my have dropped off troops in India as well from the Phil.

I was going to go IC and tran for Man. And yes I was going for an all out blitz of Russia.

It would have been a boring game for me as the Germans after rd 3 or 4 if I didn’t take Moscow, but he left the door open and I took it.

I would’ve done Pearl lite as well, as all my fighting force would be needed in Asia ASAP. He could counter an empty HI sz if he liked.

I didn’t know he’d quit if I took Kar. I guess I wasn’t fully aware of the guidelines we were playing under.

I could not sort out from the long string of posts - are you using a fully random roller or are you fudging it with a low luck or no luck roller? My comments were based on using fully random roller results. Call it a bias if you will, but I think that’s the way the game should be played… :)

BW

[DarthMaximus]

We used the DAAK roller.

But about a year ago when I first was introduced to LL, I found it interesting. So I made my own roller in EXCEL. I use it to see kind of best case vs. worst case scenerios depending on if I want the defender to hit on 2 or higher, 3 or higher, or 4 or higher.

It gives me cost analysis as well and it makes it easier for me to type out PBEM turns or play from work sometimes as I don’t feel bad about using Excel at work, but I certainly wouldn’t want to load A&A tools and stuff on my work computer.

Plus when I mess with the stuff in Excel I can kill time at work sometimes. :D

[BlackWatch]

My odds calculator has the Yak battle at 92% to win for Japan with the “most likely” result as taken with inf, 3 ftr bmr if you send everything (6 inf, 3 ftr, bmr v 7 inf, arm). Taking 1 ftr away drops the odds to 75% in Yak, which is lower than I would want for a “must win” battle. It gets much worse if the Indian ftr is moved there on UK1.

In addition the probability of winning with 4 inf, ftr v 2 inf, ftr in China is 70%, meaning your overall plan has a probability of success of .7 x .75 = .53, or about a 50-50 shot. If you throw in a 2 inf v 1 inf amphib of India, the overall success rate probability will drop well below 50%.

I try to play the first round relatively conservatively with either side to try to ensure Dicey doesn’t get a chance to give the game away before it even starts. I think SHP advocates a more aggressive style of play, but each person needs to find his own “comfort level”.

[DarthMaximus]

I only would’ve went to Ind if he vacated it. But I really wanted to see what the UK would do.

I think I’m more of a conservative player as well, although I suppose it varies. But I do like the more “sure thing” type battles which is why I agree with one of SHP initial comments about how this was so unlike me, which is true. I just didn’t know it would end the game.

If he said “Hey I really wanted to try a PA game and show you how the Allies do such and such…”

I would’ve have said okay and probably redid G1 that night. But something about his comments rubbed me the wrong way. Maybe I misunderstood him again. But in either case it wasn’t clear to me on the goal of our game.
He could’ve made it clear after my bid and said “I really want to play PA, would you mind placing 5 inf in Lib and 2 on Man.” I would’ve been fine with that as well. Like I said I just thought we were playing any old game.

And while I admit it wasn’t the best G1, which is why I put
“this is going to get ugly”
before I even did my turn, I will defend it. I mean I made the move, so I have to defend it, even though 90% of the time I do the standard kill all (or most Allied ships).

[BlackWatch]

SHP, you played Rus 1 much differently than I would have against a 4 inf Lib, 3 inf Man bid. I’m really not sure why you went so lightly against Ukraine, but I’m sure you had your reasons.

It does seem that you set Karelia as bait, especially since you shifted Eve etc to the east.

DM took the bait, and rolled up slightly both in Kar and in Egypt.

I guess I don’t see why you would quit the game because he has done so.

It may not be the object lesson you had originally planned, but it could be a lesson anyway for DM and the others listening in.

BW

[DarthMaximus]

Panda,
You make everthing so difficult. :D

I really wasn’t aware that we were only going to test PA. Yes, so the 4-3 bid was a bit of a set up. By that I mean I wanted lots of options on G1 and J1.
I didn’t realize you wanted a completely transparent game. I don’t see how that could be fun for you? If you know everything I’m going to do, I don’t even need to play.

You can type out your own game playing yourself and show everyone how it’s done.

I’ve already said (somewhere) that if I played in clubs, I would bid and play differently.

And if you only play for points and rankings why even waste your time here or offer to play people?

Remember, you suggested we play not me.

I’d be happy to play BW or OpTorch or any othe club player, but I’m not going to go asking them. I’ve had a post sitting in the games section for a couple of months looking for a player. Anyone is free to play or challenge me.
I was under the impression Club players only play for their points/rankings and don’t play here too often if ever.

Usually people start out here then move on to a Club and cease playing their games here.

I don’t care ratings shmatings, you want to challenge me at FoE in a rated game, fine. I don’t care. If I lose big deal.
Oh no I’ll have one loss, I’m shaking…

I lost 100 points, oh no! Guess I’m the worst player ever. Boo hoo hoo.

Well, you know my name at FoE.

[Mr. G]

@theSexualHarrassmentPanda:

I think what I’m having a real problem with is Panda wanting to play a PA game (which is fine) and gearing up to defend it, but not looking at the consequences of his defenses. Thus he could lightly defend Kar. Bait my a$$. He made a mistake, period. He’s lucky I really didn’t try to bury him.

Yeah it is bait. I don’t mind letting the Germans try this b/c it doesn’t help them in the long run. With the reasoning you’ve given there should be no way anyone could ever beat a PE bid, but it happens. And what’s more I don’t think BW would agree PE bids are unbeatable.

But the thing is, Panda…you didn’t set up your defense for a PE bid…if it were a true PE bid…you would’ve pulled out of Kar(I’m assuming)…in this game you didn’t…so he got the benefits of a PE bid without needing extra troops…

[Mr. G]

@theSexualHarrassmentPanda:

What you did is absolutely no different than what MrG and GWS did in recent games, and which you were supposedly against.

Whoa, don’t make it look like me and GWS think the same…we don’t…take a look at his game vs. CC…how many BB’s did he buy with Japan…5? 6? 7?..

[DarthMaximus]

Sheeesh it was 1 battle. Sorry.

What was really killer was I almost took it with all 4 ftrs and my bom. The last rd of combat had me getting my remaining hits, but you had only 8 pts left. You scored a 1 or a 2 on the last rd to force me to lose a plane, but I could only imagine your reaction if that happen. Oh man, I too would be pissed.

If you had bought 8 inf though you would have had 15 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr. I wouldn’t have been able to take no matter how much air I killed, also if you landed the 2nd ftr there I couldn’t have taken it, or even come close.

I just have one question, why set the trap if your not prepared to use it?

I was totally expecting a full strafe on Ukr with retreat to Kar, so your combined moves of Ukr and somewhat lightly defended Kar, I thought I could really cripple you early, cause I know you like Russia. I wanted to take away your strength, (or at least what I perceive to be your strength - Russia).

Your objection to the early Kar strike is entered into the permanent record.

Note to self: Never attack Kar prior to Rd 4.

[Mr. G]

@DarthMaximus:

I was totally expecting a full strafe on Ukr with retreat to Kar

What’s better with a no PE bid…STRONG ATTACK AND TAKE of Ukr…or STRONG STRAFE of Ukr…or a LIGHT/MEDIUM STRAFE/TAKE of Ukr???

[BlackWatch]

@Mr.:

@DarthMaximus:

I was totally expecting a full strafe on Ukr with retreat to Kar

What’s better with a no PE bid…STRONG ATTACK AND TAKE of Ukr…or STRONG STRAFE of Ukr…or a LIGHT/MEDIUM STRAFE/TAKE of Ukr???

Against an mt Euro bid (PA or mixed Africa/Asia), I’ll be going heavy into Ukraine every time 8 inf, 3 arm. trn, 2 ftr v baltic and sub v sub Wsp.

SHP will say that Germany’s response to a heavy take of Ukraine is a strafe to clear all but one armor - however the problem with that is that Germany cannot control the dice (in an ADS game, not the low luck roller), and Germany can easily “overtake” ukraine, meaning that all those yummy gray tanks are toast on Rus 2.

---

My odds calculator showed DM’s attack on kar to win with bmr, 3 ftr, so the “rolling up” by one unit is hardly way out of line. Egypt is another slight “roll up” but that’s the whole point of a dice game - dead center results don’t always happen, and if you don’t want someone to ‘take the bait’ don’t offer it.

DM - I have three games going right now - when I clear one, I’ll be happy to play a game. I do think you would find that MOST players in the clubs also enjoy the game far more than the points, but the points just give a way of tallying it all up. What can be even more fun is getting involved in various team games or tourneys.

BW

[DarthMaximus]

You’re the biggest whiner!
Boo hoo hoo, I got bad dice. :cry:

I just re-rolled the battle TWICE.

Both times I took it with 1 arm, 2 ftr, 1 bom.

Just as BW predicted.

So I only came out ONE unit ahead. If you can’t deal with a one unit difference then you aren’t very good player.

I beat you fair and square.

Your damn right I order the code red!!! Of course I wanted to beat you, and I did nothing deceitful.

I’ve NEVER EVER said I think PE is unbeatable. I said I don’t like playing it because it leads to shorter games. I didn’t place a PE bid.

It is not my fault you set the bait and then I took it. It was a very good trap. Don’t set the stupid trap if you don’t want people to take the bait.

I’m sorry your “invicible aura” was smashed here, but maybe this will teach you a lesson on not to underestimate your opponents.

I came out ONE unit ahead and your crying like I just rolled 6 ones with aa-fire or something.

Sheeesh, it was a frickin’ LL game. Deal with it.

[Mr. G]

@theSexualHarrassmentPanda:

That’s total bull sh** b/c if that is true then there is no way you should’ve done the attack you did do, as you should’ve gotten much worse than you did.[…] The fact is if we assume the same kind of dice you had which was the only way one can justify the attack you made you still would’ve been able to justify an attack against 15inf arm ftr. You’re using a circular argument now to defend the undefendable, if this weren’t true you’d be willing to play from a reroll which we both know you aren’t going to do as you can’t do that well again.

6inf 5arm 4ftrs bmb v 15inf arm ftr

round 2: 5arm 4ftrs bmb v 8inf arm ftr

round 3: 2arm 4ftrs bmb v 3inf arm ftr

round 4: arm 3ftrs bmb v ftr Taken w/ arm 2ftrs bmb

Note this was how the battle you did fight should’ve turned out.

Whoa, Whoa, WHOA, Panda….that is messed up…you say that he should’ve done worse than he actually did…but when you put MORE DEFENDING UNITS into the picture, he does just as well as what actually happened??? That makes NO sense…you are contradicting yourself…

[DarthMaximus]

DM - I have three games going right now - when I clear one, I’ll be happy to play a game. I do think you would find that MOST players in the clubs also enjoy the game far more than the points, but the points just give a way of tallying it all up. What can be even more fun is getting involved in various team games or tourneys.

BW

Great. I look forward to it.

I’ve got a game with Mr. G going right now and a couple 5 player games going here, although one is all but over and has been for a while, and the other is just dragging along.

Just let me know whenever you got time. Don’t worry either, I won’t use any “Crazy take Kar strats” :wink:
Apparently, I only use this secret tactic to make SHP mad.

What can I say, he set a very good trap.

[DarthMaximus]

Mr. G,

I thought he was saying that I was full of baloney because I said I wouldn’t attack if he had 15 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr.

But hey, he’s right looking at those numbers maybe I would’ve have.

Again, that only shows a 1 unit difference. That should hardly be a game breaker for someone of his “supposed” skill.

[Mr. G]

DM- what I was trying to say was this:

He claims you should’ve done more poorly on dice rolls with his original placement…but when he puts more inf there, he said you would’ve done the same damage…doesn’t make sense

[DarthMaximus]

Ah, I see.

[BlackWatch]

I went back and checked my simulator again with 6 inf, 5 arm, 5 ftr, bmr v 13 inf, 2 arm, ftr, AA.

I ran 1,000 simulations twice, and one time came up with taken by arm, 2 ftr, bmr, the other taken by arm, 3 ftr, bmr. It doesn’t get any closer than that to dead center results. In each case the three likeliest results were; taken by arm, bmr and 2,3 or 4 ftr.

On top of which, it was 70% to win each time. Obviously if the early rolls started downhill, Germany could still retreat to EEu, salvaging a game of it.

SHP, I’ve seen you advocate a smaller version of this odds battle (5 inf, arm v 3 inf, ftr Manchuria) for Russia 1. Japan sets this “bait” with a non-bid of units in Manchuria, but only in bid games. You set it deliberately through your purchase and move decisions - I would say at this point you need to suck it up and admit you made a bad decision and bad assessment of your opponent’s risk tolerance levels. (P.S. I also agree with you that the game is not over for the Allies - they still have a viable game, which proves the “depth” the Allies have with respect to moves or rolls gone bad - if this battle had gone badly for the Axis, rather than dead center, the Axis was probably done for, barring very cheap, very early major techs)

Also - you totally misread my game style. I prefer to win a game in the opening two to three rounds of play. I will take on select 50-50 battles in those rounds if I see an opportunity to gain a significant lead. Sometimes it then takes a long time for my opponents to concede (but that is entirely up to them - I never ask for a concession).

BW

[DarthMaximus]

(to SHP)

Lol! (at that last part)

You are by far the most difficult person I’ve come across on a MB. I mean that in a good way.

Have ever seen that Monty Python where they go to the argument clinic? Classic stuff. :D That what this feels like.

So, fine.
I wanted to beat you.
It was a desperate move.
It was lucky.
I’d never do it again (even though I did re-rolled it twice and had the emails sent, I didn’t want to over load your email.) I thought that would at least show that it was that out of the ordinary.
And you got jobbed in Ukr and Egy too.

Either you play to win or you don’t play,

But I just did, and you critcized my move.

I said I’d play a “no luck” rd 1, I’m just not too familiar with it, If you want me to play a 5 - 2 bid with 1 IPC to Ger, fine. If Kar is off limits for rd 1 and 2 fine.

Remember we had a “no strafing” rule in our first game for the first 3 rds. That was made clear, but I didn’t know Kar was off limits this game.

I’ll play any scenerio with anyone, just as long as it is made clear prior to R1.

As for time frame of my games, I’ll play as Axis as long as Germany holds it’s core IF Japan has control of Novo (and or Kaz and Eve), but If Japan is stuck at Yak or Sin and Germany just lost EE, then it is probably game over.

I’ve never made any secrets about how I like longer games, when both sides are battling over position.

I mean there are ways the Axis can win long games (obviously the Allies have the adv but still…), ie Japan helps out in Afr and gets it’s fleet to the Med, or Japan has her ftrs sitting on Ger, or you do a 1-2 late rd shot on the Atlantic fleet to maybe open the door, lots of stuff. I like games where both sides earn in the 70’s and you have to use tactics and strat to break the stalemate.

There is lots of variety and that is fun for me, which is why I vary my moves. I don’t want to get pigeon holed and have my opponents say “Oh DM, he ALWAYS attack Ukr with 7 inf, 3 arm or always fortifies Fic instead of Man” I like variety, for no other reason then to change what the game looks like, if I lose fine, but I’m always tinkering with stuff.

Anyway, sorry for any misunderstanding, and like I said I’m open for any game any scenerio against anybody as long as the guidlines and rules are set out and made clear.

Edit:

I see BW snuck in a post

[OpTorch]

Always enjoy these kind of threads. :D