Scenerio: Would you take Kar in Rd 1?

[DarthMaximus]

But this goes back to our first game.

The whole point of the first game was to test the Japan to Mongolia move.

So I deliberately set up defense for it. But you didn’t use it.

I was prepared to learn why you thought it worked.
Whether it was needed in that game or not I find irrelevant, I still thought you were going to show me. I thought we were testing something in a real game scenerio with unfamiliar players.

But you didn’t use it, and now you use that game as a great example when we didn’t even test what we were going to test.

That’s like me saying Power Africa works because it lets you use a PE strat.

My point is are we playing a game for a “learing experience” or are we “playing to win”.

I was under the impression we are playing to win. So maybe I did do something “desperate”, but it gives me a better chance of winning against someone who has said 22 is not a high enough bid.

I over played for Mon in game 1 and it wasn’t used, you played for PA in game 2 and it wasn’t used.

Seems fair to me.

I have no problem play a “learning” game. We don’t even need a dice roller for that. We can submit turns and just type out what we’ll do and decide fair outcomes on battles. I’m an honest player, I know what battles I should and shouldn’t win. We can do it that.

I was just under the impression, this was my rematch, and I want to win it. If that means “desperate” tactics, then so be it.

See, in your eyes 22 isn’t enough, my job is to try and show it can work. Attacking Kar??? Maybe it was bad, but I can’t possibly believe leaving the UK BB AND sub in the Med was going to help me much.

And if I known I was going to get no hits in Egy, that would changed things as well. I assumed you may have countered there regardless since I only placed 4 inf on Lib to begin with.

[BlackWatch]

@DarthMaximus:

This is in reference to my game with SHP (see game section).

I would like to know if anyone else would take a shot at a quick win (or loss)? Esp those that play in the clubs like BW or OpTorch.

I would prefer to chime in about Rus 1/G1 after Rus 2 is played. I don’t know what the plan was for Japan when you undertook the assault on Kar yet, so let’s see what both teams do for the first round??

One comment I will make - as Allies I feel MUCH better if both UK BB’s survive round 1. UK Can buy 3 trn, 4 inf, or 1 BB, 2 inf (it’s the only time I’d ever buy a BB).

BW

[DarthMaximus]

As it is I don’t think this game is going to get beyond G1.

I just want to know if it was a horrible horrible move, or would players in clubs for rankings/points take a shot.

J1 - mostly likely would hit Chi or Yak or both, esp if the UK ftr went to Egy.

Also a J1 assualt on Moscow would be on the table to kill the 2 UK ftrs that may land there.

50% chance I lose 1 to aa fire. But I’d still sack 2 more to clear the ftrs.

That would leave Germany with 2 inf, 3 ftrs, 1 bom vs. (Rus inf), 1 US bom.

He would have to place at least 4-5 Russian inf to be safe. Otherwise I may try for the rd 2 kill.

[DarthMaximus]

I didn’t follow your GWS game, it was over before it started. I saw rd 1 and tuned it out. With no bid it was over.
I have a hard time following other on-line games without a map or very clear summaries. So I don’t know the details of that game.

It wasn’t a horrible move given that you already felt defeated, but given that I would’ve rather staked you with a larger bid so you didn’t have to play like that.

I’m sorry, but to me it seems like you are the one who is defeated.
Maybe I should play the Axis with 18 to make it fair for you. :D 8)

What I am troubled by most of all is that you time and again speak against the PE bid but you basically play it here. Now you can claim the purchase coupled with landing a ftr elsewhere made you make this move, but as I see it regardless of what R1 does you should be doing this if this is how you play a PA bid.

This wasn’t a true PA bid. I only put 4 inf in Afr. The 3 inf Man were to get you to conceded SFR on rd 1 and perhaps threaten a Yak strike on J1. I wan’t to see how you’d react.

I really didn’t know you you had you heart sent on a PA game. I thought we were just playing a game.

If it were true PA I’d go 5-6 inf on Lib and 1-2 on Man, if you want to play PA fine. I’m sorry I messed this game up, otherwise fine.

I accept your surrender. You saved many lives. :D
(That was a joke :wink: ) :o

[Mr. G]

1 inf on Man is a wasted bid….I would attack Man if only one inf was put there…

[BlackWatch]

@DarthMaximus:

As it is I don’t think this game is going to get beyond G1.

I just want to know if it was a horrible horrible move, or would players in clubs for rankings/points take a shot.

J1 - mostly likely would hit Chi or Yak or both, esp if the UK ftr went to Egy.

Also a J1 assualt on Moscow would be on the table to kill the 2 UK ftrs that may land there.

50% chance I lose 1 to aa fire. But I’d still sack 2 more to clear the ftrs.

That would leave Germany with 2 inf, 3 ftrs, 1 bom vs. (Rus inf), 1 US bom.

He would have to place at least 4-5 Russian inf to be safe. Otherwise I may try for the rd 2 kill.

OK, if the game is dead in the water at this point, I’ll throw my 2 cents in.

By going all out v Kar on G1, you’ve committed to an all out attempt to crush the Russians early. On J1, the only attacks I’d be considering would be a walkin to SFE, a light Pearl (sub, BB, 2 ftr) and an all out crunch on the Yak stack (6 inf, 3 ftr, bmr v 7 inf, arm (+UK ftr??)), if needed taking a ftr as a loss to actually take Yak. I’d also be building an IC in Manchuria and 1 transport.

The US ftr in China lives, but the two inf there have nowhere to go, only the two in Sin will be able to help the Russians out.

On a more generic note, I’ve most often found that a near even G1 attack on Kar is a bad bet for the Axis, especially if you leave the Allied Atlantic boats untouched. If the Allies don’t have to spend at least SOME money on capital ships, they already have too big a lead in income for the Axis to catch up. The UK, in your game, is in play on UK 2 with a full fleet of transports and almost a full load of guys to put on them (5 trns, 2 BB’s, 5 inf, 2 arm) - that’s just too much for the Axis to overcome, even if you take Kar.

BW

[DarthMaximus]

Yeah.

I was going to take Yak, bigtime.

If his UK ftr landed there, I’d brought in all my planes and would have sacked 1 to take it.

If his ftr went to counter Egy, I would’ve looked at taking China as well with my 3rd ftr.

I would have had to roll them out on my roller, but if I recall I think it was doable to take both.

I also my have dropped off troops in India as well from the Phil.

I was going to go IC and tran for Man. And yes I was going for an all out blitz of Russia.

It would have been a boring game for me as the Germans after rd 3 or 4 if I didn’t take Moscow, but he left the door open and I took it.

I would’ve done Pearl lite as well, as all my fighting force would be needed in Asia ASAP. He could counter an empty HI sz if he liked.

I didn’t know he’d quit if I took Kar. I guess I wasn’t fully aware of the guidelines we were playing under.

[DarthMaximus]

I forgot, on the Allied ships

The UK can have a full load of ships on UK 2 regardless if I left the UK Med BB.

4 trns, 1 BB plus Russian and US ships for fodder.

I don’t want everyone to get me wrong, I very much am in favor of killing all the Allied ships and would do so probably 90% of the time.

But if I’m going to kill them I want them all. So when I had my turn planned out in order for me to kill all ships except the US trn It would’ve cost me 2 ftrs.

I probably could’ve left the sub, but I hate that darn thing. :D

But I’m in a game with Mr. G where he killed 1 Ger ftr and almost sacked a 2nd on R1, and in that game I did sack his ships.

I just ended up trying something different, the oppurtunity was there, and I took it.

I think what I’m having a real problem with is Panda wanting to play a PA game (which is fine) and gearing up to defend it, but not looking at the consequences of his defenses. Thus he could lightly defend Kar. Bait my a$$. He made a mistake, period. He’s lucky I really didn’t try to bury him.
I really could’ve done some damage cause I still almost went BB vs. BB and still sink his UK tran with my bom.

I would have had Kar, Cauc and he be down to 1 BB and only 1 trn as the UK with no Russian forces come the start of rd 2.

[BlackWatch]

@DarthMaximus:

Yeah.

I was going to take Yak, bigtime.

If his UK ftr landed there, I’d brought in all my planes and would have sacked 1 to take it.

If his ftr went to counter Egy, I would’ve looked at taking China as well with my 3rd ftr.

I would have had to roll them out on my roller, but if I recall I think it was doable to take both.

I also my have dropped off troops in India as well from the Phil.

I was going to go IC and tran for Man. And yes I was going for an all out blitz of Russia.

It would have been a boring game for me as the Germans after rd 3 or 4 if I didn’t take Moscow, but he left the door open and I took it.

I would’ve done Pearl lite as well, as all my fighting force would be needed in Asia ASAP. He could counter an empty HI sz if he liked.

I didn’t know he’d quit if I took Kar. I guess I wasn’t fully aware of the guidelines we were playing under.

I could not sort out from the long string of posts - are you using a fully random roller or are you fudging it with a low luck or no luck roller? My comments were based on using fully random roller results. Call it a bias if you will, but I think that’s the way the game should be played… :)

BW

[DarthMaximus]

We used the DAAK roller.

But about a year ago when I first was introduced to LL, I found it interesting. So I made my own roller in EXCEL. I use it to see kind of best case vs. worst case scenerios depending on if I want the defender to hit on 2 or higher, 3 or higher, or 4 or higher.

It gives me cost analysis as well and it makes it easier for me to type out PBEM turns or play from work sometimes as I don’t feel bad about using Excel at work, but I certainly wouldn’t want to load A&A tools and stuff on my work computer.

Plus when I mess with the stuff in Excel I can kill time at work sometimes. :D

[BlackWatch]

My odds calculator has the Yak battle at 92% to win for Japan with the “most likely” result as taken with inf, 3 ftr bmr if you send everything (6 inf, 3 ftr, bmr v 7 inf, arm). Taking 1 ftr away drops the odds to 75% in Yak, which is lower than I would want for a “must win” battle. It gets much worse if the Indian ftr is moved there on UK1.

In addition the probability of winning with 4 inf, ftr v 2 inf, ftr in China is 70%, meaning your overall plan has a probability of success of .7 x .75 = .53, or about a 50-50 shot. If you throw in a 2 inf v 1 inf amphib of India, the overall success rate probability will drop well below 50%.

I try to play the first round relatively conservatively with either side to try to ensure Dicey doesn’t get a chance to give the game away before it even starts. I think SHP advocates a more aggressive style of play, but each person needs to find his own “comfort level”.

[DarthMaximus]

I only would’ve went to Ind if he vacated it. But I really wanted to see what the UK would do.

I think I’m more of a conservative player as well, although I suppose it varies. But I do like the more “sure thing” type battles which is why I agree with one of SHP initial comments about how this was so unlike me, which is true. I just didn’t know it would end the game.

If he said “Hey I really wanted to try a PA game and show you how the Allies do such and such…”

I would’ve have said okay and probably redid G1 that night. But something about his comments rubbed me the wrong way. Maybe I misunderstood him again. But in either case it wasn’t clear to me on the goal of our game.
He could’ve made it clear after my bid and said “I really want to play PA, would you mind placing 5 inf in Lib and 2 on Man.” I would’ve been fine with that as well. Like I said I just thought we were playing any old game.

And while I admit it wasn’t the best G1, which is why I put
“this is going to get ugly”
before I even did my turn, I will defend it. I mean I made the move, so I have to defend it, even though 90% of the time I do the standard kill all (or most Allied ships).

[BlackWatch]

SHP, you played Rus 1 much differently than I would have against a 4 inf Lib, 3 inf Man bid. I’m really not sure why you went so lightly against Ukraine, but I’m sure you had your reasons.

It does seem that you set Karelia as bait, especially since you shifted Eve etc to the east.

DM took the bait, and rolled up slightly both in Kar and in Egypt.

I guess I don’t see why you would quit the game because he has done so.

It may not be the object lesson you had originally planned, but it could be a lesson anyway for DM and the others listening in.

BW

[DarthMaximus]

Panda,
You make everthing so difficult. :D

I really wasn’t aware that we were only going to test PA. Yes, so the 4-3 bid was a bit of a set up. By that I mean I wanted lots of options on G1 and J1.
I didn’t realize you wanted a completely transparent game. I don’t see how that could be fun for you? If you know everything I’m going to do, I don’t even need to play.

You can type out your own game playing yourself and show everyone how it’s done.

I’ve already said (somewhere) that if I played in clubs, I would bid and play differently.

And if you only play for points and rankings why even waste your time here or offer to play people?

Remember, you suggested we play not me.

I’d be happy to play BW or OpTorch or any othe club player, but I’m not going to go asking them. I’ve had a post sitting in the games section for a couple of months looking for a player. Anyone is free to play or challenge me.
I was under the impression Club players only play for their points/rankings and don’t play here too often if ever.

Usually people start out here then move on to a Club and cease playing their games here.

I don’t care ratings shmatings, you want to challenge me at FoE in a rated game, fine. I don’t care. If I lose big deal.
Oh no I’ll have one loss, I’m shaking…

I lost 100 points, oh no! Guess I’m the worst player ever. Boo hoo hoo.

Well, you know my name at FoE.

[Mr. G]

@theSexualHarrassmentPanda:

I think what I’m having a real problem with is Panda wanting to play a PA game (which is fine) and gearing up to defend it, but not looking at the consequences of his defenses. Thus he could lightly defend Kar. Bait my a$$. He made a mistake, period. He’s lucky I really didn’t try to bury him.

Yeah it is bait. I don’t mind letting the Germans try this b/c it doesn’t help them in the long run. With the reasoning you’ve given there should be no way anyone could ever beat a PE bid, but it happens. And what’s more I don’t think BW would agree PE bids are unbeatable.

But the thing is, Panda…you didn’t set up your defense for a PE bid…if it were a true PE bid…you would’ve pulled out of Kar(I’m assuming)…in this game you didn’t…so he got the benefits of a PE bid without needing extra troops…

[Mr. G]

@theSexualHarrassmentPanda:

What you did is absolutely no different than what MrG and GWS did in recent games, and which you were supposedly against.

Whoa, don’t make it look like me and GWS think the same…we don’t…take a look at his game vs. CC…how many BB’s did he buy with Japan…5? 6? 7?..

[DarthMaximus]

Sheeesh it was 1 battle. Sorry.

What was really killer was I almost took it with all 4 ftrs and my bom. The last rd of combat had me getting my remaining hits, but you had only 8 pts left. You scored a 1 or a 2 on the last rd to force me to lose a plane, but I could only imagine your reaction if that happen. Oh man, I too would be pissed.

If you had bought 8 inf though you would have had 15 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr. I wouldn’t have been able to take no matter how much air I killed, also if you landed the 2nd ftr there I couldn’t have taken it, or even come close.

I just have one question, why set the trap if your not prepared to use it?

I was totally expecting a full strafe on Ukr with retreat to Kar, so your combined moves of Ukr and somewhat lightly defended Kar, I thought I could really cripple you early, cause I know you like Russia. I wanted to take away your strength, (or at least what I perceive to be your strength - Russia).

Your objection to the early Kar strike is entered into the permanent record.

Note to self: Never attack Kar prior to Rd 4.

[Mr. G]

@DarthMaximus:

I was totally expecting a full strafe on Ukr with retreat to Kar

What’s better with a no PE bid…STRONG ATTACK AND TAKE of Ukr…or STRONG STRAFE of Ukr…or a LIGHT/MEDIUM STRAFE/TAKE of Ukr???

[BlackWatch]

@Mr.:

@DarthMaximus:

I was totally expecting a full strafe on Ukr with retreat to Kar

What’s better with a no PE bid…STRONG ATTACK AND TAKE of Ukr…or STRONG STRAFE of Ukr…or a LIGHT/MEDIUM STRAFE/TAKE of Ukr???

Against an mt Euro bid (PA or mixed Africa/Asia), I’ll be going heavy into Ukraine every time 8 inf, 3 arm. trn, 2 ftr v baltic and sub v sub Wsp.

SHP will say that Germany’s response to a heavy take of Ukraine is a strafe to clear all but one armor - however the problem with that is that Germany cannot control the dice (in an ADS game, not the low luck roller), and Germany can easily “overtake” ukraine, meaning that all those yummy gray tanks are toast on Rus 2.

---

My odds calculator showed DM’s attack on kar to win with bmr, 3 ftr, so the “rolling up” by one unit is hardly way out of line. Egypt is another slight “roll up” but that’s the whole point of a dice game - dead center results don’t always happen, and if you don’t want someone to ‘take the bait’ don’t offer it.

DM - I have three games going right now - when I clear one, I’ll be happy to play a game. I do think you would find that MOST players in the clubs also enjoy the game far more than the points, but the points just give a way of tallying it all up. What can be even more fun is getting involved in various team games or tourneys.

BW

[DarthMaximus]

You’re the biggest whiner!
Boo hoo hoo, I got bad dice. :cry:

I just re-rolled the battle TWICE.

Both times I took it with 1 arm, 2 ftr, 1 bom.

Just as BW predicted.

So I only came out ONE unit ahead. If you can’t deal with a one unit difference then you aren’t very good player.

I beat you fair and square.

Your damn right I order the code red!!! Of course I wanted to beat you, and I did nothing deceitful.

I’ve NEVER EVER said I think PE is unbeatable. I said I don’t like playing it because it leads to shorter games. I didn’t place a PE bid.

It is not my fault you set the bait and then I took it. It was a very good trap. Don’t set the stupid trap if you don’t want people to take the bait.

I’m sorry your “invicible aura” was smashed here, but maybe this will teach you a lesson on not to underestimate your opponents.

I came out ONE unit ahead and your crying like I just rolled 6 ones with aa-fire or something.

Sheeesh, it was a frickin’ LL game. Deal with it.