I know it is a bit lame replying to myself but regarding those odds…
It does not look pretty attacking Karalia if it is stacked with 19inf, 3rm and 2 ftr with 9inf, 7arm and no airforce. That assumes RR.
The Ukraine foray is only feasible if Russia took heavier than expected losses seizing it and even then if Germany takes heavy losses in the spoiler attack, those Russian armour are likey still intact.
A G2 spoiler against Karalia, assuming R2 took out Fin/Nor with 3arm, 3inf and 2ftr still leaves Karalia very strong. I’d think R would have moved all but one remaining inf from Ukraine, raised another 5-8 (some of that could be arm) and got the english ftrs. All in all that’s about 25inf & 4ftr. Or 10hits/7 hits/4 hits with a reserve in Fin/Nor.
I think the spoiler attacks should start only if R is silly or once Japan starts putting pressure on Moscow.