Poor luck? Only if you make it so luck matters in the first place. Honestly I don’t split my planes anymore to attack UK ships 1st turn with Germany anymore, I just nail 110/109 and call it a day. My Battleship always survives, no chance of my planes dying. I’m not seeing where you can possibly have luck involved that would “doom” axis.
Poor luck for the Axis can include the following:
1. the french shoot down a plane in battle for france
2. THe UK shoots down planes in 110/111 battles
3. The UK lucks out and wins in 106
4. Yugoslavia goes crazy and kills 5 infantry
5. The UK gets SUPER lucky and kills not only the Italian BB, but also the Italian and German ftrs while losing only 1 destroyer –- this has actually happened to me twice
6. China gets lucky and defends Yunnan against all out Japanese attack
… it goes on and on… Basically, the Axis have to attack a lot to get up ahead of the allies, any of these battles can go sideways and if they do… ouch!