X-DAP-05 TeamBoldDutch vs. DairyQryn

  • '12

    @Boldfresh:

    it was sustained for 8 SIX rounds.  the allies didn’t roll above except for one single battle.  could we have dragged the game out - yes, considerably.  but at some oint, before it’s too late, you have to give the dice a chance to compensate.  and after all the BS we endured for 6 rounds, we got back to back crushed by the dice on a 1-2 attack that must have had at least a 99% chance of sinking those 2 italian transports (critical).  so if you figure the chances of the dice up to that point being 1 in 200 (not too far fetched) then you have to multiply that by 1 in 100 of the consecutive results in z96.  voila - 1 in 20,000!

    felt like EIGHTY rounds… lol

  • '17 '16 '13 '12

    Your probability of sinking the transports is 94% (see other picture attached below), not quite 99%. A 1 in 16 event as opposed to a 1 in 100.  It’s bad, but not nearly as bad as you think it is.

    SeaZone96.jpg

  • '12

    If u are correct then I guess I could buy 1 in 2000.


  • Huh, does that account for the bb being damaged for the 2nd battle? I’m sure it does, but I’m not seeing that option as a possibility.

  • '17 '16 '13 '12

    @Boldfresh:

    If u are correct then I guess I could buy 1 in 2000.

    What other battle was ridiculous?

    The scramble of Japanese fighter was a 1 in 7.

    The Italian strat bombing kill is another 1 in 7 battle.

    Past that point, I think it would be fair to say that the rest of the game is even or are there other battles worthy of looking at?

    So to this point, 1 in 800 (looks really high to me since we haven’t factored in all the battles)

  • '17 '16 '13 '12

    @seththenewb:

    Huh, does that account for the bb being damaged for the 2nd battle? I’m sure it does, but I’m not seeing that option as a possibility.

    Not seeing any hit for the Americans in the first battle is nearly impossible (the battleship left is always damaged I think).

    I’m using this calculator, replaced the American bomber / carrier combo by a battleship and a carrier, assumed carrier is the first loss: http://www.campusactivism.org/aacalc/

  • '17 '16 '13 '12

    @DeadTom:

    Omega, I rather doubt that anybody spends as much time as you think they do on these games. If you’re inexperienced you may spend more time, but once you play a few games and get your butt kicked you learn quickly and can be competitive without spending hours calculating every possibility. Of course, being competitive doesn’t mean you’ll win, but as you gain experience you will get better.

    You often see a day go in between when turns are posted. I would assume that the players are investing 5 hours a week for each game thinking about the way to go. Is that far fetched?

  • '12

    How about the airstrike of the chinese stack?  And the fact that we had next to zero defensive hits on japanese or german units.

  • '17 '16 '13 '12

    @Boldfresh:

    How about the airstrike of the chinese stack?  And the fact that we had next to zero defensive hits on japanese or german units.

    Yes the Chinese stack is a good one, that is one in 6.

    The British attack on Turkey obtained similar odds, so that cancels it dice wise (but the IPC gain was much higher on the Chinese stack)

    There was the Russian bomber and the Italian tank netting out at the beginning (that was a risky move that backfired a bit).

  • '12

    add in the 1 in 6 and now you are already up to 1 in 5000.

  • TripleA

    To be honest I only spent a couple of minutes for each of my turns. I spent most of my time trying to convince Veqryn my plans are good!

  • TripleA

    I am a very decisive player. I make up my mind rather quickly. I think I only did one test turn round because Veqryn asked me to… he thought I was having trouble in the pacific for some reason so I showed him that I was about to do the China attack and then trap the Russians… and he liked the idea.

  • '17 '16 '13 '12

    I think the experienced player can make their decisions quicker, but an equal strength player that spends more time planning the optimal purchases and evaluate opponent’s reactions will have an advantage.

    The ability to play offline and using the odds calculators definitely encourage this detailed approach. This is very tedious / not sure it’s that much fun, but if you really want to win at all costs…

  • TripleA

    You do not have to play that way Omega1759. There is a good variation of strategies that can work out in this game.

    I tend to do what I feel like doing and it worked out for me so far! Sure I was lucky, but it was fun!

  • '17 '16 '13 '12

    @Cow:

    You do not have to play that way Omega1759. There is a good variation of strategies that can work out in this game.

    I tend to do what I feel like doing and it worked out for me so far! Sure I was lucky, but it was fun!

    There are variations of “grand strategies”, but definitely there are better paths than others and better tactical responses than others. E.g., managing transport logistics and their cover with the US.

  • TripleA

    You can eyeball that. Also even if you mismanage it, you can just block usa with a destroyer.

  • '12

    i was just looking through this beauty to motivate myself for the upcoming slaughter.

    COW WHERE ARE YOU>>>?  :|  planning to come out of hiding any time soon?  :lol:

  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    Cow hasn’t been online in over a week!

    Hmm…

  • '12

    exactly what i was thinking…. hmmmmmmmmmm

  • '12

    i wonder if Veqyrn has spoken to him?  hmmmmmm

    hnmmmmmmmm

    Dutch and I are ready to rumble.  Just waiting for you schmoes.

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