X-DAP-05 TeamBoldDutch vs. DairyQryn

[boldfresh]

:lol:

Guess thats more of an admission of guilt than I would have expected.  Perhaps you do realize how badly you would have lost if the dice hadnt bailed you out from a to z.

[Omega1759]

The rolls for this game are about even (see attached file). The timing of occurrence is skewed such that Axis won more battles than the Allies.

Interesting, interesting!

[boldfresh]

what is this file?

[boldfresh]

the allies got above expected odds on ONE battle in the 6 rounds.  the axis got above average on EVERY battle in the 6 rounds.

[Omega1759]

@Boldfresh:

what is this file?

The file contains dice statistics for the whole game. The average roll is 3.6 for both Axis / Allies and the distribution of 1s, 2s and 3s is more or less even.

It’s clear that many battles were very unfavorable to the Allies (e.g., the Japan scramble, the Chinese stack attack, the attack on Italian Navy), but the overall rolls don’t show this.

[boldfresh]

@Omega1759:

@Boldfresh:

what is this file?

The file contains dice statistics for the whole game. The average roll is 3.6 for both Axis / Allies and the distribution of 1s, 2s and 3s is more or less even.

It’s clear that many battles were very unfavorable to the Allies (e.g., the Japan scramble, the Chinese stack attack, the attack on Italian Navy), but the overall rolls don’t show this.

lol - so what you are saying is the average die roll for the axis was equal to the average die roll for the allies, but the distribution of the critical battles skewed low for the axis and high for the allies?

[Cow]

Yes.

Also a 3.6 average for the axis is better than a 3.6 average for the allies… considering I am rolling more 4s. The average dice is not the same as the hit count.

[Cow]

It is harder to miss with the axis and I was sending overkill to many battles. I sent near everything to hit those Siberia guys for example.

[Omega1759]

@Boldfresh:

@Omega1759:

@Boldfresh:

what is this file?

The file contains dice statistics for the whole game. The average roll is 3.6 for both Axis / Allies and the distribution of 1s, 2s and 3s is more or less even.

It’s clear that many battles were very unfavorable to the Allies (e.g., the Japan scramble, the Chinese stack attack, the attack on Italian Navy), but the overall rolls don’t show this.

lol - so what you are saying is the average die roll for the axis was equal to the average die roll for the allies, but the distribution of the critical battles skewed low for the axis and high for the allies?

Yes. Basically the rolls where fair in total, but the Allies got their luck where it did not matter (eg rolling a 1 against a battleship) and did not get their luck where it mattered.

The Italian air raid was another good example of the curse:)

[boldfresh]

my guess is we had a lot of 2’s rolling at 3 and 4 and a lot of 1’s
rolling at 2 or 3. on the otherhand, we probably had our 4’s rolling at 1 and 2.

whereas cow had a lot of 1’s rolling at 1, a lot of 2’s rolling at 2 etc and his 4’s rolling at 4.

just a guess - cuz let me tell you, the dice may have come out at a 3.6 average for both sides (where do you find this by the way? or did you tally them all yourself?) but TRUST me, we got ROYALLY screwed.

[Omega1759]

@Boldfresh:

my guess is we had a lot of 2’s rolling at 3 and 4 and a lot of 1’s
rolling at 2 or 3. on the otherhand, we probably had our 4’s rolling at 1 and 2.

whereas cow had a lot of 1’s rolling at 1, a lot of 2’s rolling at 2 etc and his 4’s rolling at 4.

just a guess - cuz let me tell you, the dice may have come out at a 3.6 average for both sides (where do you find this by the way? or did you tally them all yourself?) but TRUST me, we got ROYALLY screwed.

I did some Excel magic, there was some manual labor involved (~30 minutes). Was a nice way to recap a game I had been watching.

I don’t think the 1 in 20,000 stands though, there are a handful of battles that went 5 to 1 or 10 to 1, but certainly not at 1 in 20,000. I think 1 in 20,000 would look terrible, have you played 20,000 global games, not even close - just imagine how bad it could get. :-D

[boldfresh]

it was sustained for 8 rounds.  the allies didn’t roll above except for one single battle.  could we have dragged the game out - yes, considerably.  but at some oint, before it’s too late, you have to give the dice a chance to compensate.  and after all the BS we endured for 6 rounds, we got back to back crushed by the dice on a 1-2 attack that must have had at least a 99% chance of sinking those 2 italian transports (critical).  so if you figure the chances of the dice up to that point being 1 in 200 (not too far fetched) then you have to multiply that by 1 in 100 of the consecutive results in z96.  voila - 1 in 20,000!

[boldfresh]

@Boldfresh:

it was sustained for 8 SIX rounds.  the allies didn’t roll above except for one single battle.  could we have dragged the game out - yes, considerably.  but at some oint, before it’s too late, you have to give the dice a chance to compensate.  and after all the BS we endured for 6 rounds, we got back to back crushed by the dice on a 1-2 attack that must have had at least a 99% chance of sinking those 2 italian transports (critical).  so if you figure the chances of the dice up to that point being 1 in 200 (not too far fetched) then you have to multiply that by 1 in 100 of the consecutive results in z96.  voila - 1 in 20,000!

felt like EIGHTY rounds… lol

[Omega1759]

Your probability of sinking the transports is 94% (see other picture attached below), not quite 99%. A 1 in 16 event as opposed to a 1 in 100.  It’s bad, but not nearly as bad as you think it is.

[boldfresh]

If u are correct then I guess I could buy 1 in 2000.

[seth4god]

Huh, does that account for the bb being damaged for the 2nd battle? I’m sure it does, but I’m not seeing that option as a possibility.

[Omega1759]

@Boldfresh:

If u are correct then I guess I could buy 1 in 2000.

What other battle was ridiculous?

The scramble of Japanese fighter was a 1 in 7.

The Italian strat bombing kill is another 1 in 7 battle.

Past that point, I think it would be fair to say that the rest of the game is even or are there other battles worthy of looking at?

So to this point, 1 in 800 (looks really high to me since we haven’t factored in all the battles)

[Omega1759]

@seththenewb:

Huh, does that account for the bb being damaged for the 2nd battle? I’m sure it does, but I’m not seeing that option as a possibility.

Not seeing any hit for the Americans in the first battle is nearly impossible (the battleship left is always damaged I think).

I’m using this calculator, replaced the American bomber / carrier combo by a battleship and a carrier, assumed carrier is the first loss: http://www.campusactivism.org/aacalc/

[Omega1759]

@DeadTom:

Omega, I rather doubt that anybody spends as much time as you think they do on these games. If you’re inexperienced you may spend more time, but once you play a few games and get your butt kicked you learn quickly and can be competitive without spending hours calculating every possibility. Of course, being competitive doesn’t mean you’ll win, but as you gain experience you will get better.

You often see a day go in between when turns are posted. I would assume that the players are investing 5 hours a week for each game thinking about the way to go. Is that far fetched?

[boldfresh]

How about the airstrike of the chinese stack?  And the fact that we had next to zero defensive hits on japanese or german units.