X-DAP-05 TeamBoldDutch vs. DairyQryn

[boldfresh]

@Omega1759:

@Boldfresh:

1 in 20,000 I would estimate.  Dont know a generally accepted method to do it by or I would have suggested it…  :-P

Really doesnt matter.  We will see how the finals go.

The 1 in 20,000 is extremely hard to believe.

well, that’s my estimate.  prove me wrong.

[Cow]

I kept my options open throughout the game. I made sure Japan always had attacks lined up for the next turn. Protected my transports. Did lots of attacks with overwhelming odds. All and all I like what I did in the Pacific.

Russia bought mech/armor which forced Germany to go barb, otherwise that would roll into China and possibly secure the Burma road. Plus the odds on london were not good enough to conquer it and expect enough survivors to turn around and hit Russia hard.

Italy I gave up on right away. It was just a decision I made on round 2 when I saw all that Russian mech. I just wanted to make sure Russia did not get any NOs and that Germany could focus on Russia.
~
The reason I scrambled my one fighter on Japan against 2 fighters, was because I knew if I won that the full carrier buy would not be very effective. That was a very big upset which set America back big time. I should have kept a second fighter on Japan. I realized that shortly after posting before you guys went, but I wanted a no edit after posting game.

[Cow]

Some of my buys were a little off - I got a naval base too soon for example. A couple of misplaced moves with one or two units. It did not matter so much in the end. My one fighter defended Japan. Two air units not able to make India might not be necessary after all. The naval base a turn early would have been purchased the next round or two anyway.

Overall a fine example of Japan play.

[Cow]

I am more of a VC win or bust kind of guy. Prefer not to play long income games unless I have the incentives to do so. Trapped Russian Siberia infantry for an easy Siberia experience is hard to pass up on… even for me, so yeah I took it for the income and delayed my progress on India.

[boldfresh]

:lol:

Guess thats more of an admission of guilt than I would have expected.  Perhaps you do realize how badly you would have lost if the dice hadnt bailed you out from a to z.

[Omega1759]

The rolls for this game are about even (see attached file). The timing of occurrence is skewed such that Axis won more battles than the Allies.

Interesting, interesting!

[boldfresh]

what is this file?

[boldfresh]

the allies got above expected odds on ONE battle in the 6 rounds.  the axis got above average on EVERY battle in the 6 rounds.

[Omega1759]

@Boldfresh:

what is this file?

The file contains dice statistics for the whole game. The average roll is 3.6 for both Axis / Allies and the distribution of 1s, 2s and 3s is more or less even.

It’s clear that many battles were very unfavorable to the Allies (e.g., the Japan scramble, the Chinese stack attack, the attack on Italian Navy), but the overall rolls don’t show this.

[boldfresh]

@Omega1759:

@Boldfresh:

what is this file?

The file contains dice statistics for the whole game. The average roll is 3.6 for both Axis / Allies and the distribution of 1s, 2s and 3s is more or less even.

It’s clear that many battles were very unfavorable to the Allies (e.g., the Japan scramble, the Chinese stack attack, the attack on Italian Navy), but the overall rolls don’t show this.

lol - so what you are saying is the average die roll for the axis was equal to the average die roll for the allies, but the distribution of the critical battles skewed low for the axis and high for the allies?

[Cow]

Yes.

Also a 3.6 average for the axis is better than a 3.6 average for the allies… considering I am rolling more 4s. The average dice is not the same as the hit count.

[Cow]

It is harder to miss with the axis and I was sending overkill to many battles. I sent near everything to hit those Siberia guys for example.

[Omega1759]

@Boldfresh:

@Omega1759:

@Boldfresh:

what is this file?

The file contains dice statistics for the whole game. The average roll is 3.6 for both Axis / Allies and the distribution of 1s, 2s and 3s is more or less even.

It’s clear that many battles were very unfavorable to the Allies (e.g., the Japan scramble, the Chinese stack attack, the attack on Italian Navy), but the overall rolls don’t show this.

lol - so what you are saying is the average die roll for the axis was equal to the average die roll for the allies, but the distribution of the critical battles skewed low for the axis and high for the allies?

Yes. Basically the rolls where fair in total, but the Allies got their luck where it did not matter (eg rolling a 1 against a battleship) and did not get their luck where it mattered.

The Italian air raid was another good example of the curse:)

[boldfresh]

my guess is we had a lot of 2’s rolling at 3 and 4 and a lot of 1’s
rolling at 2 or 3. on the otherhand, we probably had our 4’s rolling at 1 and 2.

whereas cow had a lot of 1’s rolling at 1, a lot of 2’s rolling at 2 etc and his 4’s rolling at 4.

just a guess - cuz let me tell you, the dice may have come out at a 3.6 average for both sides (where do you find this by the way? or did you tally them all yourself?) but TRUST me, we got ROYALLY screwed.

[Omega1759]

@Boldfresh:

my guess is we had a lot of 2’s rolling at 3 and 4 and a lot of 1’s
rolling at 2 or 3. on the otherhand, we probably had our 4’s rolling at 1 and 2.

whereas cow had a lot of 1’s rolling at 1, a lot of 2’s rolling at 2 etc and his 4’s rolling at 4.

just a guess - cuz let me tell you, the dice may have come out at a 3.6 average for both sides (where do you find this by the way? or did you tally them all yourself?) but TRUST me, we got ROYALLY screwed.

I did some Excel magic, there was some manual labor involved (~30 minutes). Was a nice way to recap a game I had been watching.

I don’t think the 1 in 20,000 stands though, there are a handful of battles that went 5 to 1 or 10 to 1, but certainly not at 1 in 20,000. I think 1 in 20,000 would look terrible, have you played 20,000 global games, not even close - just imagine how bad it could get. :-D

[boldfresh]

it was sustained for 8 rounds.  the allies didn’t roll above except for one single battle.  could we have dragged the game out - yes, considerably.  but at some oint, before it’s too late, you have to give the dice a chance to compensate.  and after all the BS we endured for 6 rounds, we got back to back crushed by the dice on a 1-2 attack that must have had at least a 99% chance of sinking those 2 italian transports (critical).  so if you figure the chances of the dice up to that point being 1 in 200 (not too far fetched) then you have to multiply that by 1 in 100 of the consecutive results in z96.  voila - 1 in 20,000!

[boldfresh]

@Boldfresh:

it was sustained for 8 SIX rounds.  the allies didn’t roll above except for one single battle.  could we have dragged the game out - yes, considerably.  but at some oint, before it’s too late, you have to give the dice a chance to compensate.  and after all the BS we endured for 6 rounds, we got back to back crushed by the dice on a 1-2 attack that must have had at least a 99% chance of sinking those 2 italian transports (critical).  so if you figure the chances of the dice up to that point being 1 in 200 (not too far fetched) then you have to multiply that by 1 in 100 of the consecutive results in z96.  voila - 1 in 20,000!

felt like EIGHTY rounds… lol

[Omega1759]

Your probability of sinking the transports is 94% (see other picture attached below), not quite 99%. A 1 in 16 event as opposed to a 1 in 100.  It’s bad, but not nearly as bad as you think it is.

[boldfresh]

If u are correct then I guess I could buy 1 in 2000.

[seth4god]

Huh, does that account for the bb being damaged for the 2nd battle? I’m sure it does, but I’m not seeing that option as a possibility.