@Zhukov44:
Been messing with it for a few hours today and I’m stumped. I can’t get past 14% odds for USA3 attack on W. Canada or 10% of USA surviving J4. Gonna start investigating fleet strats but it looks grim because the Axis fleet superiority can prevent Allied consolidation at key moments.
Do you think it’s possible to get 4 ANZ ground units to WUS by US3? As long as USA can clear any Japanese fleet parked in Z10…
Have you not reviewed the game thread?
I’m not seeing a way to stop the landing of 24 ground units on British Columbia on J3.
This means Japan can attack J4 with 16 INF, 7 ART, 1 ARM, 11 FTR, 8 TAC, and 2 BMB. I don’t think that fact can be changed.
However, it is possible for the Allies to get some extra defense to WUS.
- Buy 5 INF US1
- Buy BMB UK1, TP ANZ1
- Buy 6 INF US2
- Buy naval base for Samoa UK2
- Move 2 loaded transports to Samoa ANZ2
- Buy 5 INF, AA, ARM, 3 FTR US3
- Fly in UK bomber
Fly in 3 ANZ fighters
- Transport 4 ground units from Samoa
The 4 ground units from ANZAC can probably be stopped? by parking some Japanese fleet in Z10. However, some ships will be needed to protect 6 transports that will be moving into Z1. But maybe the US fleet is sitting in Z10 protected by potential scrambles. I don’t know if the Japanese player would attack the US fleet, but if they don’t, the 4 ANZAC units cannot be stopped from making it to the US on ANZ3.
If ANZAC ground units are stopped, then the Allies are defending with 21 INF, ART, 2 AA, ARM, TAC, 11 FTR, 1 BMB
Assuming 1 fighter shot down by AA, the odds are 95% chance of taking WUS. Median result is Japan survives with the tank and 13 aircraft. Upper quartile is 17 aircraft, 3rd quartile is 9 aircraft.
However, if you have 4 ANZAC ground units on top of that, for a total of 25 INF, then
the odds are only 72.8% chance of victory. Median result is Japan survives with 7 aircraft. Upper quartile is 11 aircraft, 3rd quartile is FAILURE - game over. 70/30 percentile has Japan winning, but with only 1 or 2 bombers remaining.
If the Allies build maximum defense builds with the USA every turn, fly in a UK bomber and 3 ANZAC fighters, and get 4 ANZAC infantry in, the Allies have a very good chance of winning. If WUS falls but Japan only survives with a handful of planes, the Allies still have a good chance of winning.
As Zhukov pointed out, P40 has always been unbalanced in favor of Japan. Running the “traditional” strategy of going after India and China first should still be successful a higher percentage of the time than going KUSAF.
Other allies don’t have to “sell out” to try to save WUS, necessarily.
The UK bomber purchase on round 1 and flying to WUS is probably not necessary.
Whether the 4 ANZ infantry can sneak into WUS on ANZ3 is key.
Without them, no, you’re not going to get higher than 10% USA surviving J4.
With them, the strategy fails, as compared to other Japan options. At least, it’s very risky. And why would Japan need to take big risks?
VonLettow stubbornly ignored pretty much everything I had to say. He does not know if the ANZ transports can be stopped. He decided to ignore any ideas I had for stopping “his” strategy, because he’s so proud of it.
I showed him several things he hadn’t seen before, but he stubbornly refuses to admit any skill that I have, because he’s a jerk.