Bulgaria looks like Turkish control
Arabia is British
Albania is difficult to place, as it seems to be in a state of anarchy in 1914, but giving it to Italy seems to be jumping the gun somewhat:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_albania#Internal_revolts_and_foreign_occupation_during_World_War_I
You’re probably correct in the assessment of Belgium & Portugal falling into the French sphere for African balance. Portuguesers fought under British command and wore British uniforms, though strangely in French blue.
http://www.hat.com/Othr7/Nuno32P.html
Romania is a country that could have joined either side: they wanted Bessarabia from Russia, so I would question Russian control.
Greece is difficult in that its pro-British premier invited the allies in, but was then sacked by the pro-German king. The Allies ended up with a large garrison in Salonika despite Greece being technically neutral.
Germany did a lot of trade with adjacent neutrals, especially the Netherlands and Sweden, so maybe Germany gets a certain ammount of IPCs from these without having to invade. The Allies should not be permitted to invade neutrals, unless you include Persia which was a Russo-British “protectorate” at the time.