G40.2 Fortress (Axis) vs. Eqqman (Allies) no bid, no tech

[Eqqman]

Chinese were hosed, lost a battle with 99% odds of success.

Game History

Round :1

Purchase Units - Chinese
            Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed
            Chinese buy 4 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Chinese
            2 infantry moved from Kweichow to Yunnan
            1 fighter moved from Szechwan to Yunnan
            1 infantry moved from Shensi to Szechwan
            1 infantry moved from Suiyuyan to Shensi
            1 infantry moved from Suiyuyan to Kansu

Combat - Chinese
            Battle in Yunnan
                Chinese attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
                Japanese defend with 1 artillery
                Chinese win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is -2
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery
                Casualties for Chinese: 2 infantry

Non Combat Move - Chinese
            1 fighter moved from Yunnan to Burma

Place Units - Chinese
            4 infantry placed in Szechwan

Turn Complete - Chinese
            Chinese collect 8 PUs; end with 8 PUs total

[Eqqman]

I’m sure you’ll laugh at these moves, but let’s face it, the underdog doesn’t win by doing the usual stuff.

Game History

Round :1

Combat Move - British
            1 fighter moved from Malta to 96 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to 96 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 109 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from United Kingdom to 91 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from United Kingdom to 91 Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to 91 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Egypt to 98 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 71 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 98 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from Alexandria to Egypt
            1 armour moved from Alexandria to Egypt
            1 infantry moved from Alexandria to Egypt
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 98 Sea Zone to 80 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 39 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
            1 battleship moved from 37 Sea Zone to 79 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from India to 39 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 39 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Anglo Egyptian Sudan to Egypt
            1 destroyer moved from 76 Sea Zone to 80 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser moved from 39 Sea Zone to 80 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Alexandria to Egypt

Combat - British
            Battle in 96 Sea Zone
                British attack with 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
                Italians defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                British win with 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 15
                Casualties for Italians: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
            Battle in 91 Sea Zone
                British attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters
                Germans defend with 2 submarines
                British win with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
                Casualties for Germans: 2 submarines

Non Combat Move - British
            1 infantry moved from 80 Sea Zone to Persia
                  British take Persia from Neutral_Allies
            1 infantry moved from West India to Eastern Persia
                  British take Eastern Persia from Neutral_Allies
            1 infantry moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java
                  UK_Pacific take Java from Dutch
            1 infantry moved from Union of South Africa to Rhodesia
            1 infantry moved from Union of South Africa to Rhodesia
            1 carrier moved from 98 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 98 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser moved from 98 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 battleship and 1 cruiser moved from 110 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 transport moved from 109 Sea Zone to 106 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Ontario to Quebec
            1 armour and 1 infantry moved from Quebec to New Brunswick Nova Scotia
            1 infantry moved from Scotland to United Kingdom
            1 aaGun moved from Scotland to United Kingdom
            1 infantry moved from Scotland to United Kingdom
            1 fighter moved from Scotland to United Kingdom
            1 bomber moved from 91 Sea Zone to United Kingdom
            1 fighter moved from 91 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
            1 fighter moved from 91 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 96 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from 96 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
            1 fighter moved from 96 Sea Zone to Malta
            1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to 92 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from India to Persia
            1 fighter moved from India to Persia
            1 fighter moved from Burma to Persia
            3 aaGuns, 1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from India to Burma

Place Units - British
            2 destroyers and 1 transport placed in 106 Sea Zone
            1 infantry placed in United Kingdom

Turn Complete - British
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 2
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 106 Sea Zone. Rolls: 2,6
            British collect 28 PUs (2 lost to blockades); end with 30 PUs total
            Objective British 1 Original: British met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 35 PUs

Game History

    Round :1

        Place Units - UK_Pacific
            1 aaGun and 4 infantry placed in India

        Turn Complete - UK_Pacific
            UK_Pacific collect 21 PUs; end with 21 PUs total
            Some Units in India change ownership: 1 aaGun and 4 infantry

[Fortress]

There’s a glitch in TripleA that permits a move that’s not valid. It let you land air in a territory that wasn’t yours at the beginning of the turn (Persia).

You need a new landing spot for those units. You can redo your turn if that affects what else you were planning on doing.

[Eqqman]

Sorry, I thought that was okay if I had a land unit moving in with them.

The planes are moved to West India.

[Eqqman]

Hmm isn’t that move allowed on Dutch territories?  Maybe that’s why I thought it was ok.

[Fortress]

It IS allowed in Dutch territories - and you can actually land on them with air without activating them with land units. The ruling from Krieghund was that the Dutch aren’t neutral; they’re a non-playable Allied power whose capital is under enemy control and who have an agreement with the UK and ANZAC regarding the administering of their territories.

I’d guess that of all the questions in the FAQ, probably 1/3 are about eh Dutch and neutrals  :-)

[Fortress]

I need an OOL for you for the 2nd round of combat in 92. You’re way ahead in this battle. I was only 63% but I went for it anyway. Yuck.  :lol:

ool_i1.tsvg

[Eqqman]

I had wargamed out all the likely German responses, but the Italians were a big question mark since I don’t know how much of a gambler you are.  I had been really hoping you wouldn’t go for that attack but I probably would have done it myself in your shoes even knowing it meant a heavy loss for Italy no matter the outcome.

It would be nice if the MARTI server gave you a summary of how many hits those dice rolls come out to… if I give you a complete OOL, then you know exactly how far you have to go to meet whatever your goals for the attack are.  But I’ll run that risk for this battle:

BB takes a hit
CV takes a hit
CV is sunk (Planes to land in Gibraltar)
DD sunk
Cruisers sunk
BB sunk
Fighter lost
Tactical Bomber lost

[Eqqman]

Did you have some kind of issue setting up your turn?  I have a different set of emails of dice rolled on the Italian turn that include a Submarine for SZ92.

[Eqqman]

Ah- I think I see the issue, you made some incorrect assumptions about how I would respond to round 1 losses.  At the point you have saved there, I should still have my DD and the Carrier should be dead already.  In the future please don’t make any assumptions on what I would lose in any battle.  During the German turn I pre-approved all the default selections since I saw that it wouldn’t matter to me in that battle, but it matters hugely in this case.  Any blank checks I write you for losses only apply for that turn :).

Obviously if I end up losing the land battle in Gibraltar my planes will need to land in Morocco.

[Eqqman]

As an addendum, this time I will take it on the chin, so please continue the battle with the original OOL I have posted.  So the Carrier should certainly be the very next unit I lose.

On a different topic, is there any way to edit your posts in this forum?  I can’t find an EDIT button and it would save the trouble of making multiple posts.

[Fortress]

I think it’s going to turn out the same no matter what in round 2 of combat (and ultimately in your favor, as I would’ve abandoned the attack if your carrier was sunk after the first combat round). They both hit at 2 and the damaged carrier next to a naval base is more valuable than a destroyer in case I abandon the attack after round 1 (so much so that that carrier was the only reason I pressed the attack after being down so much in round 1 with basically no chance to win.

Point taken, though. I’ll wait on future ool.

[Fortress]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Alpha 3 Final, version: 3.3

Game History

Round :1

Purchase Units - Italians
            Italians buy 2 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 2 PUs;

Combat Move - Italians
            1 battleship and 1 cruiser moved from 97 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine moved from 95 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine moved from 93 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from Northern Italy to 95 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from Northern Italy to 97 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Southern Italy to 97 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Southern Italy to 95 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 95 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 97 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from 92 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
            1 bomber moved from Northern Italy to 92 Sea Zone
            2 fighters moved from Southern Italy to 92 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Libya to Tunisia
            1 artillery moved from Libya to Tunisia
            1 armour moved from Tobruk to Alexandria
                  Italians take Alexandria from British
            1 armour moved from Alexandria to Tobruk
            1 mech_infantry moved from Tobruk to Tunisia
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Ethiopia to Kenya
                  Italians take Kenya from British
            1 infantry moved from Italian Somaliland to Kenya

Combat - Italians
            Battle in Tunisia
                Italians attack with 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                French defend with 1 infantry
                    Italians roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Tunisia, round 1 :  1/3 hits
                    French roll dice for 1 infantry in Tunisia, round 1 :  0/1 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the French lost in Tunisia
                Italians win, taking Tunisia from French with 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for French: 1 infantry
            Battle in 92 Sea Zone
                Italians attack with 1 battleship, 1 bomber, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters, 1 submarine and 2 transports
                British defend with 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber
                    Italians roll dice for 1 submarine in 92 Sea Zone, round 1 :  0/1 hits
                    Italians roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 bomber, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 2 transports in 92 Sea Zone, round 1 :  3/7 hits
                Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the British and 1 carrier owned by the British
                    British roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 92 Sea Zone, round 1 :  5/7 hits
                Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Italians
                    1 destroyer owned by the Italians , 1 submarine owned by the Italians , 2 cruisers owned by the Italians and 1 destroyer owned by the British lost in 92 Sea Zone
                    Italians roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 2 transports in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 :  2/4 hits
                    British roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 92 Sea Zone, round 2 :  3/6 hits
                    1 cruiser owned by the British , 1 fighter owned by the Italians , 1 battleship owned by the Italians , 1 carrier owned by the British and 1 bomber owned by the Italians lost in 92 Sea Zone
                2 transports owned by the Italians retreated to 93 Sea Zone
                British win with 1 battleship, 1 cruiser, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is -44
                Casualties for British: 1 carrier, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer
                Casualties for Italians: 1 battleship, 1 bomber, 2 cruisers, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 submarine
                1 tactical_bomber owned by the British and 1 fighter owned by the British forced to land in Gibraltar

Non Combat Move - Italians
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 fighter moved from 92 Sea Zone to Southern France
            2 infantry moved from Albania to Yugoslavia
            1 armour moved from Albania to Slovakia Hungary
            1 armour moved from Northern Italy to Slovakia Hungary
            2 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
            2 aaGuns moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
            1 aaGun moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy
            4 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy

Place Units - Italians
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Italians from Southern France: 1 fighter
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Italians to 93 Sea Zone: 1 battleship
            EDIT: Changing unit hit damage for these Italians owned units to: battleship = 1
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            2 mech_infantrys placed in Northern Italy

Turn Complete - Italians
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 1
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 72 Sea Zone. Rolls: 2
            Italians collect 11 PUs (1 lost to blockades); end with 13 PUs total

Territory Summary for Italians :

Alexandria : 1 flag
    Kenya : 1 flag, 1 artillery and 3 infantry
    Tunisia : 1 flag, 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
    Slovakia Hungary : 1 flag, 2 armour
    Tobruk : 1 flag, 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry
    Northern Italy : 1 flag, 1 aaGun, 1 factory_major, 4 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys
    Southern Italy : 1 flag, 1 aaGun, 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour
    93 Sea Zone : 1 flag, 2 artilleries, 1 battleship, 2 infantry and 2 transports
    Yugoslavia : 1 flag, 2 aaGuns and 4 infantry

Production/PUs Summary :

Germans : 42 / 71
    Russians : 37 / 37
    Japanese : 30 / 40
    Americans : 52 / 53
    Chinese : 8 / 8
    British : 29 / 35
    UK_Pacific : 21 / 21
    Italians : 12 / 13
    ANZAC : 10 / 10
    French : 11 / 0
    Dutch : 7 / 0
    Mongolians : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Axis : 2 / 0
    Neutral_Allies : 4 / 0
    Neutral_True : 18 / 0

Dice Statistics:

Total
            1 was rolled 1 times
            2 was rolled 1 times
            3 was rolled 2 times
            4 was rolled 2 times
            6 was rolled 1 times
        Average roll : 3.286
        Median : 3.000
        Variance : 0.500
        Standard Deviation : 0.707
        Total rolls : 7

Null / Other
            2 was rolled 1 times
        Average roll : 2.000
        Median : 2.000
        Variance : ?
        Standard Deviation : ?
        Total rolls : 1

British Combat
            1 was rolled 1 times
            3 was rolled 2 times
            4 was rolled 2 times
            6 was rolled 1 times
        Average roll : 3.500
        Median : 3.500
        Variance : 0.800
        Standard Deviation : 0.894
        Total rolls : 6

[Eqqman]

Game History

Round :1

Purchase Units - ANZAC
            ANZAC buy 1 transport; Remaining resources: 3 PUs;

Combat Move - ANZAC

Non Combat Move - ANZAC
            1 infantry moved from New South Wales to 62 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 62 Sea Zone to 45 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 45 Sea Zone to Dutch New Guinea
                  ANZAC take Dutch New Guinea from Dutch
            1 cruiser moved from 63 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 62 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            2 aaGuns and 1 infantry moved from New South Wales to Queensland
            2 fighters moved from New Zealand to Queensland

Place Units - ANZAC
            1 transport placed in 62 Sea Zone

Turn Complete - ANZAC
            ANZAC collect 10 PUs; end with 13 PUs total

[Eqqman]

Game History

Round :1

Combat Move - French
            1 destroyer moved from 72 Sea Zone to 79 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from French West Africa to French Central Africa
            1 infantry moved from Algeria to Morocco
            1 infantry moved from Syria to Trans-Jordan
            1 cruiser moved from 110 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Holland Belgium
                  French take Holland Belgium from Germans

Combat - French

Non Combat Move - French

Turn Complete - French

[allweneedislove]

@Eqqman:

Chinese were hosed, lost a battle with 99% odds of success.

i assume you are talking about this game.
a battle with 2infantry and 1 fighter vs 1 artillery has a 99% chance that the attacker wins with at least one unit surviving.
however, you stopped when it was a fighter vs artillery which has a 50% chance of the attacker winning.

[Eqqman]

Hi!

I remember your handle from the last time I was playing TripleA several years ago.  At that time the big news was that the Pact of Steel and Big World maps had just been developed; I don’t recall what year that was, but I do know you were considered one of the unbeatable guys back then.  I had skimmed through the thread of what I think is your last game vs. Fortress and apparently that opinion is still valid… I was even considering PMing you to get a few tips.  Anyway, it’s cool that you just happen to pop in with a comment.

This game might be pretty short, as I had hoped that the SZ92 battle would scare Italy away and encourage them to make an early play for Cairo.  This made me less aggressive in Africa that I would have liked, since I couldn’t find a way to stage any attacks that wouldn’t give the odds for an I1 assault on Cairo down below 50% if Italy skipped SZ92.  My overall strategy may now be impossible to implement but I can’t be sure until after G2 & J2.  Of course, there is also the possibility that my plan was worthless from the get-go.

@allweneedislove:

I assume you are talking about this game.
a battle with 2infantry and 1 fighter vs 1 artillery has a 99% chance that the attacker wins with at least one unit surviving.
however, you stopped when it was a fighter vs artillery which has a 50% chance of the attacker winning.

Does that 50% include the prior knowledge that the two infantry had to be lost first, or is that for a fresh battle where nothing has been rolled yet? (For people reading this who are not well-versed in probabilities, it does matter)

[allweneedislove]

hi eqqman,

good to see a long time player again. i had also taken a multi year break. i played tons of revised, missed out on the anniversary edition and came back when global was released. i saw your post on the global main page suggesting allies had the advantage, which i chalked up to lack of experience and figured you would change your mind with more game play. i have played global many times but am still new enough to not know for sure that axis have the clear advantage.

my last play by forum game(not including the team tournament i am in) was against fortress, he is very good player.

@Eqqman:

Does that 50% include the prior knowledge that the two infantry had to be lost first, or is that for a fresh battle where nothing has been rolled yet? (For people reading this who are not well-versed in probabilities, it does matter)

i was being fairly disingenuous, in the layout of my comment. a fighter vs art has a 50% chance at winning. but that does NOT mean that your result was likely 49% of the time.

i believe your result happens about 4% of the time. then you have a 50% chance at winning but you stopped.

[Eqqman]

@allweneedislove:

i saw your post on the global main page suggesting allies had the advantage, which i chalked up to lack of experience and figured you would change your mind with more game play. i have played global many times but am still new enough to not know for sure that axis have the clear advantage.

Well, the important part of my hypothesis is that both players are of equal skill.  If Fortress is significantly more skilled than I am, it will be a real uphill battle testing that out.  This is actually only my second game every playing Global 1940 with fellow humans, so I am trying to catalog all my more obvious mistakes for future reference.

@allweneedislove:

…a fighter vs art has a 50% chance at winning. but that does NOT mean that your result was likely 49% of the time.

i believe your result happens about 4% of the time. then you have a 50% chance at winning but you stopped.

That battle put me in a real bind.  I could have lost the fighter and taken the province, so the question is how vital is that fighter to the Allied war effort?  I sacrifice an irreplaceable 10IPC unit to get one round of Burma Road bonus income and a denial of an Aircraft landing site for Japan closer to Calcutta on J2.  At the time I instinctively went with saving my expensive unit but I had plenty of second thoughts afterwards.

[Fortress]

Need ool on Gibraltar. I,A,F,Tac attacking 3F,Tac. Attackers scored 2 hits in first round.