2013 - AAG 40 League

[gamerman01]

Yes, Dizz and Bold
We see really crazy stuff with electronic dice, but real dice are crazy.

I just ran several tests with the tripleawarclub dice server attacking 50 infantry and 50 tanks with 50 infantry and 50 tanks.

Sometimes there were strings of 7 or 10 or 12 dice in a row that would hit or miss, but after running through the whole battle several times, I must say the dice looked entirely normal and random to me.

I think we are susceptible to getting things in our heads.
Strings happen.  I had 5/6 planes shot down by AA using the forum roller and it was devastating because it was my entire fledgling UK air force.  But the exact same thing could definitely happen with real dice.  It’s called a “Yahtzee” on the first roll, and you don’t have to play too much Yahtzee to see that happen.

Karl, you’re just a hot and cold player - deal with it.  :mrgreen:

[boldfresh]

I’m just a COLD player that once in a while gets AVERAGE dice.  It’s a miracle i EVER win  :wink: :-P

[gamerman01]

Bold, you get good dice at times like anybody else, but you discount it and forget about it because you figure you were OWED it for all your bad dice.

I lost a big 95%er against you in Z56 where I had to retreat loaded transports, and you very unexpectedly then had the units to sink them after the dicing too.

When you’ve played dozens and dozens of A&A games, it is extremely unlikely that you would be very far off the average.

The poor results we get are more painful and much more memorable than all the good results we get.  We’re like “oh, that was nice”, and then move on to the next battle.  Meanwhile, it’s driving your opponent crazy.

Our bias has a lot to do with our perception of our own/our opponent’s luck.

[gamerman01]

With a quick internet search, I may have found a study on this topic that would be very enlightening.

I will read it to make sure it’s valuable, before sending it to you or posting it here.

[boldfresh]

heh, gamer did you see the  :wink: and  :-P after my comment?  :-)

[gamerman01]

Yes, but they were pretty much meaningless to me

I am not researching this entirely on your account.  It’s also for Karl and all the other whiners out there.
At a glance, I do believe the study I found is just what I was hoping to find….
You know there’s got to be a ton of material on this topic, what with all the gambling games out there.
No doubt you have already read some books on the topic.  I haven’t yet.

[Jennifer]

I know Frood is good because he was (sounds like he’s dead, hope not!) a well educated statistician who could also program.  So the RNG had no detectible pattern, at least not that I know of, and it was used so frequently by so many that if there was a glitch it would have been found.  It was the official dicey for a few leagues and tournaments here, back when NCSCSwitch was league/tournament moderator, and it evolved because Flames of Europe was unpredictable at best, outright wrong at worst.

Later we got an inhouse dicey - because Djensen said so darn it.  Since I never work for inferior organizations, nor do I volunteer for said organizations, and since the organizations are not inferior then they only use superior technologies and therefore, by a very B@ST@RDIZED route of induction (which is mostly propaganda), our dicey is the best ever!  (Oh, and I don’t really know of many complaints about our dicey.)

[Karl7]

@Gamerman01:

Yes, but they were pretty much meaningless to me

I am not researching this entirely on your account.  It’s also for Karl and all the other whiners out there.
At a glance, I do believe the study I found is just what I was hoping to find….
You know there’s got to be a ton of material on this topic, what with all the gambling games out there.
No doubt you have already read some books on the topic.  I haven’t yet.

I am a whiner!!?!?!

ha ha…. yes I am!  Yuck!

Look, I know I am probably just imagining it, but… that Sub always hitting thing seems true enough… but you are right.  My sample size s probably too small for just me to make any conclusions.

That’s why I opened the discussion to see if it’s just me. Probably is.  I recently lost a 90%+ battle against Dizz… and it was for London!

A BTW Gamerman, remember that attack I made against you with Germany with 30+ units and got ZERO hits…  :-P :-P :-P :-P

[boldfresh]

@gamer - yeah, there’s a movie coming out soon that depicts the cheating that occurred in the internet poker world - should be fun to watch.  Runner, Runner with Affleck and Timberlake.

Regarding this issue of the number generator for the MARTI dice, i think the dice are the same for both parties UNLESS someone is able to cheat the system in some way - and i would not care even if they could since there is no cash at stake.  I don’t have a super fragile ego like some players who just cannot bring themselves to play opponents in Tier 1.   hmmmmm

[gamerman01]

@Karl7:

A BTW Gamerman, remember that attack I made against you with Germany with 30+ units and got ZERO hits….  :-P :-P :-P :-P

No, because it wasn’t bad luck for me!  You just prove my point
Wasn’t it a last ditch desperation attack anyway?  Or am I thinking of the wrong game/person?

[boldfresh]

@Karl7:

@Gamerman01:

Yes, but they were pretty much meaningless to me

I am not researching this entirely on your account.� It’s also for Karl and all the other whiners out there.
At a glance, I do believe the study I found is just what I was hoping to find….
You know there’s got to be a ton of material on this topic, what with all the gambling games out there.
No doubt you have already read some books on the topic.� I haven’t yet.

I am a whiner!!?!?!

ha ha…. yes I am!� Yuck!

Look, I know I am probably just imagining it, but… that Sub always hitting thing seems true enough… but you are right.� My sample size s probably too small for just me to make any conclusions.�

That’s why I opened the discussion to see if it’s just me. Probably is.� I recently lost a 90%+ battle against Dizz… and it was for London!

A BTW Gamerman, remember that attack I made against you with Germany with 30+ units and got ZERO hits…� :-P :-P :-P :-P

karl - there is no doubt that you and I get screwed by the dice FAR more often than most.  the funny thing is, when you and I meet, your dice CRUSH ME.  so what does that say?   :lol:

[gamerman01]

Yeah, I would want to watch that movie.

[Jennifer]

@Boldfresh:

karl - there is no doubt that you and I get screwed by the dice FAR more often than most.  the funny thing is, when you and I meet, your dice CRUSH ME.  so what does that say?   :lol:

It tells me that you need to start serving Fanta and not Crush!  Besides, it’s far easier to get Fanta out of a carpet than Crush!  (And now I’ll turn the MOM button off, kay?)

So, Bold, where’s all this energy coming from?

[seth4god]

@Gamerman01:

Here’s the list and I probably left something out, believe it or not.
I have raised all of these issues with Veqryn in the past 5 months.  He says all of them are considered and/or on his to do list, but no promises on how soon he’ll get to some of them, and we do not agree about the level of importance of some of these issues.

China is supposed to be able to DOW against Euro Axis if they (axis) are in possession of a terr that China could move into. Rarely happens, but its possible. Triplea however does not seem to give the Chinese this ability.

http://www.wizards.com/avalonhill/rules/A&A_Europe_1940_2ndEd_Rulebook_LR.pdf
PG 38

Political Situation: China begins the game at war with Japan. China can�t declare war on a European Axis power
unless one of those powers first either declares war on China or moves units into a territory into which Chinese units
are allowed to move. A state of war between China and one Axis power won�t affect its relations with the other Axis
powers.

[gamerman01]

Added to list.

Triple A problems.doc

[Mallery29]

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=31126.0

Need admin assistance.  I will provide the emails of the dice rolls to league admin.  Please send me an email address that I can forward or paste all the dice rolls.

Respectfully request Assistance.

:x

I admit I was wrong with VC, but the comments/accusations are uncalled for.

[gamerman01]

“A typical representativeness heuristic ispeoples belief in the law of small numbers (Tversky & Kahneman, 1971). With this belief, forinstance, when people are asked to produce a series of coin tosses, they are more likely to producesequences with alternative patterns (e.g. HHT, THH) than homogenous patterns (e.g. HHH, TTT)(Tune, 1964). This experiment implicates that people tend to believe homogenous patterns are lesslikely than alternative ones (Kahneman & Tversky, 1972).”

An excerpt from the research I read.
Some people complain about “strings” of numbers from computer dice rollers like they shouldn’t happen.

Note that the chance of flipping HHH is 1/8, so the chance of HHH or TTT is 1/4 or 25% which of course is not rare.

Or, like I said, rolling a Yahtzee on the first roll does happen from time to time.

To summarize the whole boring research article (which cited about 40 different sources - although that doesn’t mean it’s a good paper necessarily),
Luck is perception, it’s in our heads, and it’s related to reference points that are often subjective.
Helps explain why a lot of people feel like they are usually getting the “short end of the stick”, or a raw deal from the dice generators.
More often than not, it’s in your head.  Or it’s a small sample size.

[boldfresh]

@Gamerman01:

“A typical representativeness heuristic ispeoples belief in the law of small numbers (Tversky & Kahneman, 1971). With this belief, forinstance, when people are asked to produce a series of coin tosses, they are more likely to producesequences with alternative patterns (e.g. HHT, THH) than homogenous patterns (e.g. HHH, TTT)(Tune, 1964). This experiment implicates that people tend to believe homogenous patterns are lesslikely than alternative ones (Kahneman & Tversky, 1972).”

An excerpt from the research I read.
Some people complain about “strings” of numbers from computer dice rollers like they shouldn’t happen.

Note that the chance of flipping HHH is 1/8, so the chance of HHH or TTT is 1/4 or 25% which of course is not rare.

Or, like I said, rolling a Yahtzee on the first roll does happen from time to time.

To summarize the whole boring research article (which cited about 40 different sources - although that doesn’t mean it’s a good paper necessarily),
Luck is perception, it’s in our heads, and it’s related to reference points that are often subjective.
Helps explain why a lot of people feel like they are usually getting the “short end of the stick”, or a raw deal from the dice generators.
More often than not, it’s in your head.  Or it’s a small sample size.

Yes and when you play cow it is not in your head it is completely real.  Lol

[gamerman01]

lol

[Jennifer]

Sorry, Gamerman, but nothing existed before I entered the world, therefore, there was no 1971 and I refute your entire premise and the premise of the article on that basis.  :P  (oh yea, and I won’t read a 5 page proof of a mathematics equation and I LIKE that, why would I read 40 pages on statistics which I hate?)