“A typical representativeness heuristic ispeoples belief in the law of small numbers (Tversky & Kahneman, 1971). With this belief, forinstance, when people are asked to produce a series of coin tosses, they are more likely to producesequences with alternative patterns (e.g. HHT, THH) than homogenous patterns (e.g. HHH, TTT)(Tune, 1964). This experiment implicates that people tend to believe homogenous patterns are lesslikely than alternative ones (Kahneman & Tversky, 1972).”
An excerpt from the research I read.
Some people complain about “strings” of numbers from computer dice rollers like they shouldn’t happen.
Note that the chance of flipping HHH is 1/8, so the chance of HHH or TTT is 1/4 or 25% which of course is not rare.
Or, like I said, rolling a Yahtzee on the first roll does happen from time to time.
To summarize the whole boring research article (which cited about 40 different sources - although that doesn’t mean it’s a good paper necessarily),
Luck is perception, it’s in our heads, and it’s related to reference points that are often subjective.
Helps explain why a lot of people feel like they are usually getting the “short end of the stick”, or a raw deal from the dice generators.
More often than not, it’s in your head. Or it’s a small sample size.
