2013 - AAG 40 League

[gamerman01]

@Karl7:

Has anyone ever checked the Marti Dice server that its actually spewing out random dice?

Is there even a way to do it?

I would start by having it roll a lot of dice.  Like set up 100 artillery against 100 infantry and keep rolling it over and over.  Make sure there’s an even distribution of 1,2,3,4,5,6
Not sure how to test for strings of numbers, though.  Like how to tell if you get an inordinate number of sequences like 2,2,2,2,3,2,2,2 or something.  Search the internet, I guess.

After 40+ games this league, I’m picking up strange patterns in the dice, like subs on defense hitting way more than they should, among others.

I’m pretty sure the subs in my games have been hitting on defense LESS than 1/6 of the time, so I guess I’m seeing the other side of it.  Your sample size is probably too small.
MARTI doesn’t know it’s rolling for subs or whether it’s rolling for attacking infantry or bombers or what, so I think it’s in your head.

Don’t forget - VERY WEIRD things happen with real dice too.

There just seems to way to many extreme results than my experience says there should be.

AND, I say this as someone whose had it go for me and against me!

If someone could check it, it would relieve my suspicion.

Well, since you and your opponent are using the same server, it’s fair for both, right?
I mean, you definitely wouldn’t want 75% accuracy with AA guns like Jenn claimed happened, but I don’t think anyone’s complaining that there are more 6’s than 1’s or any other number.
The odd combinations in strings (All tanks missing, all tanks hitting, etc.) is a concern of some players, perhaps, and you don’t want non-random dice messing with your game, but the fact remains that both players are equally susceptible and so it should even out….

I will do some tests and see what I think…

[Jennifer]

Well, keep in mind my statement of 75-80% (I could find the spreadsheet but I’d have to find the computer it’s on first and see if the darn thing would even LOAD windows 98 anymore!) was for a VERY early edition of the program.  TripleA like ONE point NOTHING or something similar.  I don’t even think it worked for forum play, may have been play by email only at the time, dunno.  Honestly, I always thought it looked too much like Hasbro’s games and that never made me look favorably on it.

For the record, it was very similar to flames of Europe dicey.  That thing spat out weird numbers all the time, but only with AA Guns….must have been the @1 on defense or something.  Could there be a correlation between FOE and TripleA?  I have no idea…don’t really care tbh, but I don’t know.

I know our dicey is good, and I know frood’s is good.  All others I don’t trust. :P

[boldfresh]

that’s funny cuz i don’t trust the forum dice.  :lol:

[DizzKneeLand33]

Okay, I’ll bite….

How do you know that the dice server here is good (and Frood) versus any other dice server?  What tests did you perform so that we can compare those with TripleA?

Otherwise, it’s in your head people.  I have rolled at least one 6 each and every defensive roll in real life risk games (as a child in the 70’s) at least 10 times in a row in at least 20 games.  If you do that math on that, I wonder how many games I would have to play to “normalize” the results…

You are only rolling the numbers 1 through 6.  Of course you are going to spot “patterns”…

After all, if you look at a random set of letters, you will also see patterns, and those only repeat every 26 times, not just 6.

As Gamer said, real life dice are every bit as screwy as the TripleA dice server…

[boldfresh]

@DizzKneeLand33:

Okay, I’ll bite….

How do you know that the dice server here is good (and Frood) versus any other dice server?  What tests did you perform so that we can compare those with TripleA?

Otherwise, it’s in your head people.  I have rolled at least one 6 each and every defensive roll in real life risk games (as a child in the 70’s) at least 10 times in a row in at least 20 games.  If you do that math on that, I wonder how many games I would have to play to “normalize” the results…

You are only rolling the numbers 1 through 6.  Of course you are going to spot “patterns”…

After all, if you look at a random set of letters, you will also see patterns, and those only repeat every 26 times, not just 6.

As Gamer said, real life dice are every bit as screwy as the TripleA dice server…

i totally agree.  remember that one defensive roll i had in our last live game Gamer?  what did i roll, like 44 dice at 2 and missed every singly one of them?

[gamerman01]

Yes, Dizz and Bold
We see really crazy stuff with electronic dice, but real dice are crazy.

I just ran several tests with the tripleawarclub dice server attacking 50 infantry and 50 tanks with 50 infantry and 50 tanks.

Sometimes there were strings of 7 or 10 or 12 dice in a row that would hit or miss, but after running through the whole battle several times, I must say the dice looked entirely normal and random to me.

I think we are susceptible to getting things in our heads.
Strings happen.  I had 5/6 planes shot down by AA using the forum roller and it was devastating because it was my entire fledgling UK air force.  But the exact same thing could definitely happen with real dice.  It’s called a “Yahtzee” on the first roll, and you don’t have to play too much Yahtzee to see that happen.

Karl, you’re just a hot and cold player - deal with it.  :mrgreen:

[boldfresh]

I’m just a COLD player that once in a while gets AVERAGE dice.  It’s a miracle i EVER win  :wink: :-P

[gamerman01]

Bold, you get good dice at times like anybody else, but you discount it and forget about it because you figure you were OWED it for all your bad dice.

I lost a big 95%er against you in Z56 where I had to retreat loaded transports, and you very unexpectedly then had the units to sink them after the dicing too.

When you’ve played dozens and dozens of A&A games, it is extremely unlikely that you would be very far off the average.

The poor results we get are more painful and much more memorable than all the good results we get.  We’re like “oh, that was nice”, and then move on to the next battle.  Meanwhile, it’s driving your opponent crazy.

Our bias has a lot to do with our perception of our own/our opponent’s luck.

[gamerman01]

With a quick internet search, I may have found a study on this topic that would be very enlightening.

I will read it to make sure it’s valuable, before sending it to you or posting it here.

[boldfresh]

heh, gamer did you see the  :wink: and  :-P after my comment?  :-)

[gamerman01]

Yes, but they were pretty much meaningless to me

I am not researching this entirely on your account.  It’s also for Karl and all the other whiners out there.
At a glance, I do believe the study I found is just what I was hoping to find….
You know there’s got to be a ton of material on this topic, what with all the gambling games out there.
No doubt you have already read some books on the topic.  I haven’t yet.

[Jennifer]

I know Frood is good because he was (sounds like he’s dead, hope not!) a well educated statistician who could also program.  So the RNG had no detectible pattern, at least not that I know of, and it was used so frequently by so many that if there was a glitch it would have been found.  It was the official dicey for a few leagues and tournaments here, back when NCSCSwitch was league/tournament moderator, and it evolved because Flames of Europe was unpredictable at best, outright wrong at worst.

Later we got an inhouse dicey - because Djensen said so darn it.  Since I never work for inferior organizations, nor do I volunteer for said organizations, and since the organizations are not inferior then they only use superior technologies and therefore, by a very B@ST@RDIZED route of induction (which is mostly propaganda), our dicey is the best ever!  (Oh, and I don’t really know of many complaints about our dicey.)

[Karl7]

@Gamerman01:

Yes, but they were pretty much meaningless to me

I am not researching this entirely on your account.  It’s also for Karl and all the other whiners out there.
At a glance, I do believe the study I found is just what I was hoping to find….
You know there’s got to be a ton of material on this topic, what with all the gambling games out there.
No doubt you have already read some books on the topic.  I haven’t yet.

I am a whiner!!?!?!

ha ha…. yes I am!  Yuck!

Look, I know I am probably just imagining it, but… that Sub always hitting thing seems true enough… but you are right.  My sample size s probably too small for just me to make any conclusions.

That’s why I opened the discussion to see if it’s just me. Probably is.  I recently lost a 90%+ battle against Dizz… and it was for London!

A BTW Gamerman, remember that attack I made against you with Germany with 30+ units and got ZERO hits…  :-P :-P :-P :-P

[boldfresh]

@gamer - yeah, there’s a movie coming out soon that depicts the cheating that occurred in the internet poker world - should be fun to watch.  Runner, Runner with Affleck and Timberlake.

Regarding this issue of the number generator for the MARTI dice, i think the dice are the same for both parties UNLESS someone is able to cheat the system in some way - and i would not care even if they could since there is no cash at stake.  I don’t have a super fragile ego like some players who just cannot bring themselves to play opponents in Tier 1.   hmmmmm

[gamerman01]

@Karl7:

A BTW Gamerman, remember that attack I made against you with Germany with 30+ units and got ZERO hits….  :-P :-P :-P :-P

No, because it wasn’t bad luck for me!  You just prove my point
Wasn’t it a last ditch desperation attack anyway?  Or am I thinking of the wrong game/person?

[boldfresh]

@Karl7:

@Gamerman01:

Yes, but they were pretty much meaningless to me

I am not researching this entirely on your account.� It’s also for Karl and all the other whiners out there.
At a glance, I do believe the study I found is just what I was hoping to find….
You know there’s got to be a ton of material on this topic, what with all the gambling games out there.
No doubt you have already read some books on the topic.� I haven’t yet.

I am a whiner!!?!?!

ha ha…. yes I am!� Yuck!

Look, I know I am probably just imagining it, but… that Sub always hitting thing seems true enough… but you are right.� My sample size s probably too small for just me to make any conclusions.�

That’s why I opened the discussion to see if it’s just me. Probably is.� I recently lost a 90%+ battle against Dizz… and it was for London!

A BTW Gamerman, remember that attack I made against you with Germany with 30+ units and got ZERO hits…� :-P :-P :-P :-P

karl - there is no doubt that you and I get screwed by the dice FAR more often than most.  the funny thing is, when you and I meet, your dice CRUSH ME.  so what does that say?   :lol:

[gamerman01]

Yeah, I would want to watch that movie.

[Jennifer]

@Boldfresh:

karl - there is no doubt that you and I get screwed by the dice FAR more often than most.  the funny thing is, when you and I meet, your dice CRUSH ME.  so what does that say?   :lol:

It tells me that you need to start serving Fanta and not Crush!  Besides, it’s far easier to get Fanta out of a carpet than Crush!  (And now I’ll turn the MOM button off, kay?)

So, Bold, where’s all this energy coming from?

[seth4god]

@Gamerman01:

Here’s the list and I probably left something out, believe it or not.
I have raised all of these issues with Veqryn in the past 5 months.  He says all of them are considered and/or on his to do list, but no promises on how soon he’ll get to some of them, and we do not agree about the level of importance of some of these issues.

China is supposed to be able to DOW against Euro Axis if they (axis) are in possession of a terr that China could move into. Rarely happens, but its possible. Triplea however does not seem to give the Chinese this ability.

http://www.wizards.com/avalonhill/rules/A&A_Europe_1940_2ndEd_Rulebook_LR.pdf
PG 38

Political Situation: China begins the game at war with Japan. China can�t declare war on a European Axis power
unless one of those powers first either declares war on China or moves units into a territory into which Chinese units
are allowed to move. A state of war between China and one Axis power won�t affect its relations with the other Axis
powers.

[gamerman01]

Added to list.

Triple A problems.doc