L12G4Karl7(Axis)v.Gamerman(Allies)+Tech

[Karl7]

map

L12G40Karl7(Axis)v.Gamerman(Allies)6aGer.AAM

[Karl7]

so, the USSR has a 48% chance of winning Bry.  It’s the game is you win.  If you lose… well…

Basically I’ve given the chance to do something crazy.

[gamerman01]

Yeah, I had already thought about it but realized I have everything to lose and the only thing to gain is a faster win.

Also, I think I have a bit higher odds than that.  But I won’t be attacking it - pretty sure…  Not even for 1 round - I could lose twice as many infantry as you…  Your AA guns can’t help you on attack…

[Karl7]

blah… I need to reposition stuff on my ncm for ger :-P

hold on

[gamerman01]

OK, was just starting to check

[gamerman01]

One error your map had was 2 infantry in Bess (should be 3) and 1 extra in Suk

You did move AA from Bel to Bry without typing
Also 2 fighters from Holland to Wgr

[gamerman01]

I calculate 67.5% on Bry
Tantalizing, but is the wrong move given my positions around the world
If I got unlucky rolls I could be trading 23 infantry for 8 and 3 aa guns in the first round, which would then give you like a 60% chance on Russia when you have no chance if I don’t attack….  So yeah, it’s too risky.  Especially when I have key targets at Arc and Ros I would have to give up, and could lose air to AA.
Tough to resist, but resist I will.

[gamerman01]

But I’ve said too much, since you haven’t locked in non-coms…

Need to go to bed - playing tomorrow

[Karl7]

got those errors

revised ncms

mech goes from wgr to ger
aa from wgr to ger
ftr from sita to ger

place 4inf in ger

[Karl7]

67% eh?  what calculator are you using?  Frood?

[Karl7]

map

L12G40Karl7(Axis)v.Gamerman(Allies)6aGer.AAM

[gamerman01]

No, I use this one that was posted on the site a few years ago.  Doesn’t really have a name.  It’s awesome, but not perfect on the fleet battles when you have destroyers, subs, and air…
And it doesn’t do G40, so I have to make modifications.
For 3 AA defending, I put in 6 bombers and put in 3 less men, so you still have the 6 punch for 3 men in the first round, but you have 6 casualties for 3 men and 3 AA.
2 hit carriers and tacs take a little more imagination.

[gamerman01]

Seems you have 3 extra infantry placed now….  1 too many in Bry, and 2 too many in Suk?

[gamerman01]

I think everything else checks out….
Please confirm Bry and Suk
I have 5 infantry in Suk and 20 in Bry
You have 7 and 21

[Karl7]

hmm, 5 in sukr is right per your map

but, 21 in bry is right by my map

[Karl7]

blah… ok, I see I didn’t take the hit in bry, so 20 inf in bry.

Good catch!    :wink:

[gamerman01]

That explains a lot of the disparity in our success percentages, too.

[Karl7]

1inf?  hm… I use DS kelly for battle calculations.  Not perfect, but easy.

[gamerman01]

Yes, one infantry in a battle like that can change the odds by quite a bit.

[gamerman01]

R6 with 26, buy 6 INF, 2 ART

Combat moves -
Ros - MECH, FTR (Rus)
Arc - 2 MECH, FTR, TAC (Rus)

ArcRolls: 2@1 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 22@1: (1, 6)1@3: (1)1@4: (5)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)