I totally agree that the presentation is subjective, and that there are other ways to present things ; this is why I repeated a couple of times that it was :)
I also totally agree that you made a “safe” opening by not taking all battles possible, which reduced the odds of you loosing one of the opening battle.
Just to explain why I stopped to G1 and J1 : indeed there was the loss of the italian fighter which was an unlucky result ; in the same way russian attacks went globally quite well until now. But on an other hand my calculator say that in average sz12 should have let you with 2,32 units, you got an almost perfect G3, and the Egypt battle was also a very good result fo the axis. So I assumed that outside from G1 and J1, results were not in favor of the allies, so that skipping them was not too much of subjectivity.
More generally, as already said or read several times on this forum, I think that the results of G1 and J1 is the main factor of “who might win”. And axis winning all the opening battle is not a “normal” result : you made a safe opening, but still, in average you should be diced one every two games. Somehow, when I see people after loosing (for instance) sz2 “now it’s game over”… well I would answer that when taking the axis side, you should believe that you can win after the loss of one of your opening battles.
But this is more a general comment about AA50-41 that I’m doing here. I just made this comment because the discussion started about odds. No need to apologize for speaking of that, none offense was taken. I appreciate the discussion, and just recall such points without any bad thoughts about this game or anything on the sort. And once again I do not pretend to be right here ; such discussions are mainly subjectives, and what you say also totally make sense.
Once again, you deserve the situation on the board. I’m definitely not saying that this is due to dice. You indeed got a good opening, but after that I’ve made a very bad turn 2 in Europa. I did not adapt well enough to the early dices, which is the main reason on the situation on the map (this and you making none mistake obviously - including choosing a safe J1 as you mentioned).
I believe that this game is something like 99% over. As it is a final, I will take time to think on the board and see if I can have an idea to do something clever. Of course, that should slow my play, since I’ll need time to think longer.
Thanks Yoshi, take the time you need
ok… let’s loose this game :)
Russia 3:
Purchase
6inf (18)
4tnk (20)
Combat Moves:
Bel (2inf, 1art)
2inf, 1art Russia
2inf Archangel
Ukraine (2inf, 1art)
4inf Caucasus
1tnk Russia
Buryatia (2inf)
7inf Stc
Dice…
Bel rd1
A: 4inf, 1art
Rolls: 3@1 2@2; Total Hits: 03@1: (4, 5, 2)2@2: (3, 4)
D: 2inf, 1art
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 13@2: (2, 3, 4)
Bel rd2
A: 3inf, 1art
Rolls: 2@1 2@2; Total Hits: 02@1: (3, 3)2@2: (4, 5)
D: 2inf, 1art
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 23@2: (1, 2, 6)
Bel holds without loss, 1inf, 1art retreat to Russia.
Buryatia rd1
A: 7inf
Rolls: 7@1; Total Hits: 17@1: (3, 1, 4, 2, 3, 4, 3)
D: 2inf
Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 12@2: (1, 3)
Buryatia rd2
A: 6inf
Rolls: 6@1; Total Hits: 26@1: (6, 1, 6, 1, 6, 6)
D: 1inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)
Buryatia liberated, 1inf lost.
Ukraine rd1
A: 4inf, 1tnk
Rolls: 4@1 1@3; Total Hits: 04@1: (3, 5, 3, 4)1@3: (5)
D: 2inf, 1art
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 23@2: (2, 4, 1)
Well I think that will do it ; will take some time for a last look at the board before giving my resignation.
rough dice
Results:
Ukraine holds without loss, 2inf, 1tnk retreat to Russia.
Bel holds without loss, 1inf, 1art retreat to Russia.
Buryatia liberated, 1inf lost.
NCM:
2inf Euk -> Russia
1inf Urals -> Russia
1SS sz12 -> sz23
1bmb Australia -> Caucasus
4inf, 1art Norway -> Finland
Place Units:
2tnk, 4inf Russia
2tnk, 2inf Caucasus
Collect $28+5=33
well… it’s really because that’s a final that I will look at your J3 before giving up… just in case I would see a way to have a chance without Russia. But this just moved from 99% lost to 101% lost…
J3
3 inf 5 ftr
-chi 2 inf
nin 2 inf
sik 2 inf
fic 1 ftr
-ind 2 inf 1 rtl
bur 1 inf
mad 2 inf
ngu 2 inf 1 rtl 1 arm
z32 1 ftr
chi
a
Rolls: 4@1 1@3; Total Hits: 04@1: (3, 2, 3, 4)1@3: (4)
d
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)
a
Rolls: 4@1 1@3; Total Hits: 14@1: (6, 1, 4, 2)1@3: (5)
d
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)
shoot i forgot to roll for the second chi inf. i’ll roll two now to catch up
Rolls: 2@1; Total Hits: 02@1: (4, 5)
a
Rolls: 4@1 1@3; Total Hits: 14@1: (1, 5, 4, 2)1@3: (6)
d
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)
chi twol
ind
a
Rolls: 4@1 2@2 2@3; Total Hits: 34@1: (4, 1, 4, 4)2@2: (4, 1)2@3: (3, 5)
d
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 33@2: (1, 2, 2)
they go out w bang. ind twlo 3 inf
ncm
chi-nin 1 ftr
ind-z35 1 ftr
z32-z35 1 ac
z62-z61 fleet
z48-z61 fleet
jpn-kia 1 arm 1 rtl
kwa-kia 2 inf
fuk-kia 1 inf
place
jpn 3 inf 5 ftr
57
Yeah that’s enough, you won. Good game and congrat’z for the title :).
Thanks Yoshi, good game! Would have been nice if the dice had been more even and we could go more rounds.
Strategy wise, if I might comment and get your thoughts too… While round 1 favored the axis (I agree that every other game one ought to expect to get diced in an opening battle, didn’t happen this time), in my humble opinion there were a few related decisions that cost the Allies the game.
First, while the sub bid and R1 bmb build takes out a few free trannies, given G1 was solid I think the bmb was a risky buy without R1 land units in the bid. Second, Russia’s difficulties were compounded by the all-Pacific USA1 strategy which made it impossible for the key USA swing power to help out in the crucial Euro theater which was already looking tough by USA1 (and about to get tougher). Third was the killer z12 UK naval mistake where whether I came out a fighter ahead or behind wouldn’t have mattered as the navy was sunk and the ability to shuck land units delayed (which would not have been a problem had USA naval assets been there to reinforce). While that was I think a miscalculation mistake, strategically once the USA navy wasn’t in the Atlantic, had the UK navy gone the more conservative Northern route to bolster and take back Karelia (maybe using air to take out the Italian navy) it’s possible the Pacific USA strat would have had time to work. I think you knew that with my G2 (and G3 though not needed) bmb build and z8 ss move that I was itching to take out the UK navy in z12 as the lack of any Russian land pressure would allow me to trade replaceable air with harder to replace UK navy. Finally, I think the all Pacific USA1 route is generally speaking pretty risky, as it requires your opponent to make mistakes in order to work out well and in my opinion is easy for a carefully played Japan to defend against.
Of course, with bad dice it may have still ended up the same, but perhaps taken 10 rounds.
I’m sure I over simplified the above, as I don’t have that much experience w AA50 (tried to learn AA50 as quickly as possible through test games I played in the 2011 leagues, of which I made many mistakes).
RD
I strongly believe that an all against Japan can work, even if it might not be wise in any game. I’m not sure that it could not work here… hesitated some time before going for it. Should have waited US2 maybe; like I sometimes do. But I thought J1 was too good to have a chance to be countered after waiting. And I guess I dislike boring KGF too much to go for it (did that only once here ^^ ).
But obviously sz12 was just a killer… computed it once in a hurry at 55% for you, then stayed with my calculation in mind, and did not check again later on. After loosing Egypt, so badly, I just fought “that game is almost dead, a 40% of taking air while keeping a BB is good for me” ; obvioulsy not a less than 15%… I should have gone to Norway instead, and preserve russian troops closer to the fight.
But well played or not, not sure if I had a chance with these dices… at least I should have had time so that dices might have been better later on.
Conclusion : playing too fast is not good sometimes :p
I agree that an all out vs Japan can be effective, and I’m sure you’ve had good success with it, but it probably works beat with a coordinated effort by the allies and not just the USA right? I would think a certain amount of over extension by Japan and/or an inferior or soon to be inferior economic position vs the USA is also important. Otherwise you need the Japs to delay their response (as you can’t exactly sneak up on them with pacific builds) or make a mistake. IC placement is also a key factor. In our case, once i saw you build all pacific i built accordingly immediately for Japan and was confident I could contain USA efforts. It just seems to me that the turn order for the allies in 41 on the pacific is just really difficult.
