Tinydictator: First Blood (Axis)

[Pakitho]

(45 I mean)

[tinydictator]

45 for Russia is not bad either, but having Finland for 1 or 2 turns is not going to save your bolshevik ass. Btw I do not need to get to Moscow as long as I keep London and Egypt.

Oh and you get thoroughly convoy raided in Korea:
Rolls: 7@3; Total Hits: 37@3: (3, 3, 5, 6, 4, 3, 6)

JAPAN 3:

Build (41):
1 Trn (7)
2 Inf (6)
1 sub (6)
1 Ftr (10)
1 Minor IC (12)

BB sz33 repairs

Combat move:

to sz26: 1 Trn [load 1 Inf, 1 Tank (Jap)] (sz6); 1 Trn [load 2 Inf (Car)], 1 BB (sz33)
to Hawaii: 3 Inf, 1 Tank, shore bombardment 2 BB, 1 Crs (NB that the Ftr on the AC does not attack)
to sz54: 1 sub (sz33); 1 Ftr (sz46); 1 Bmb (Wak)
to sz56: 1 sub (sz46); 1 DD (sz33)
to sz43: 1 sub (sz35)
to sz47: 1 Trn [load 1 Inf (Car)] (sz46)
to NBr: 1 Inf
to sz45: 1 Trn [load 2 Inf (Guam)] (sz21); 1 Trn [load 1 Inf, 1 Art (Phil)] (sz35); 1 Crs (sz46)
to DGu: 3 Inf, Art; 1 Ftr (Car); 1 Tac (sz46)
to Sze: 4 Inf, 3 Art (Kwe); 1 Mech (Hun)
to Yun: 1 Inf (Kwe); 2 Inf, 1 Art, 2 Ftr, 2 Tac, 1 Bmb (Kwa); 1 Ftr, 1 Tac (Anh)
to Cha: 2 Inf (Jeh); 1 Ftr (Man)

Hawaii: 3 Inf, 1 Tank, 1 Crs, 2 BB vs 1 AA, 3 Inf
Rolls: 3@1 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 13@1: (1, 5, 6)2@3: (5, 4)2@4: (6, 5)
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 13@2: (2, 3, 6)

sz54: 1 sub, 1 Ftr, 1 Bmb vs 1 DD
Rolls: 1@2 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 21@2: (2)1@3: (5)1@4: (4)
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (5)

DGu: 3 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Crs, 1 Ftr, 1 Tac vs 1 Ftr
Rolls: 2@1 2@2 2@3 1@4; Total Hits: 02@1: (6, 3)2@2: (3, 3)2@3: (4, 4)1@4: (6)
Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 11@4: (3)

sz56: 1 sub, 1 DD vs 1 sub (first roll is the sub = first strike)
Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 12@2: (1, 6)
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (6)

Cha: 2 Inf, 1 Ftr vs 1 Inf
Rolls: 2@1 1@3; Total Hits: 02@1: (3, 5)1@3: (5)
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (1)

Sze: 4 Inf, 1 Mech, 3 Art vs 1 Inf
Rolls: 2@1 6@2; Total Hits: 12@1: (2, 5)6@2: (2, 6, 5, 6, 4, 4)
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (5)

Yun: 3 Inf, 1 Art, 3 Ftr, 3 Tac, 1 Bmb vs 1 AA, 8 Inf
AA:Rolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 13@1: (5, 1, 4)

[tinydictator]

Wow, that is some sorry dice-rolling! I roll with 16 in DGu and hit NONE, and I roll with 17 in Hawaii and hit one…

I assume you take the hit in Hawaii on the AA.

Cha retreats.

1 Ftr gets shot down in Yun. I’ll need to know your OOL for Yun.

Round 2:

Hawaii: 2 Inf, 1 Tank vs 3 Inf
Rolls: 2@1 1@3; Total Hits: 02@1: (5, 3)1@3: (5)
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 23@2: (2, 5, 1)

DGu: 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Ftr, 1 Tac vs 1 Ftr
Rolls: 1@1 2@2 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 31@1: (5)2@2: (4, 1)1@3: (2)1@4: (3)
Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 11@4: (2)

Yun: 3 Inf, 1 Art, 2 Ftr, 3 Tac, 1 Bmb vs 1 AA, 8 Inf
Rolls: 2@1 2@2 3@3 3@4; Total Hits: 52@1: (4, 6)2@2: (6, 1)3@3: (1, 1, 1)3@4: (6, 6, 2)
Rolls: 8@2; Total Hits: 48@2: (3, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 2, 4)

[tinydictator]

THIS BATTLE IN HAWAII IS A BAD JOKE!!!

Do you take the hit in Yun on the AA or on another Inf? Obviously I retreat now.

Hawaii: 1 Tank vs 3 Inf
Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 11@3: (1)
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 13@2: (3, 2, 5)

[tinydictator]

This is pathetic. Do you know why I did not send the Ftr in the battle? Because I considered that it was clearly unnecessary and I didnt want to expose him to the AA. The only way how this turn could have gone possibly worse is if the DD in sz54 had shot down my sub.

[Pakitho]

:-o I knew my luck was going to change!  :-D All of those guys are getting purple hearts.

Don’t say ‘it couldn’t have gone worse’, you still have the Yunnan fight… I take the hit on the AA.

[Pakitho]

Small consolation: if I had rolled this awesome during Sea Lion, the game would be over…

[tinydictator]

Non-combat move:

1 Ftr (sz54); 1 sub, 1 AC, 1 Ftr, 1 Tac (sz6) -> sz26
1 DD (sz6) -> sz33
1 AC (sz46); 1 Ftr, 1 Tac (DGu) -> sz45
1 Bmb (sz54) -> Car
1 Ftr (Cha) -> Man
2 Ftr, 3 Tac, 1 Bmb (Yun); 1 Inf, 1 AA (Anh); 1 Inf (Kwe) -> Hun

Build:
1 Minor IC in Hon
Jap: 1 Trn, 1 sub, 2 Inf, 1 Ftr

This turn really killed me in the Pacific. I can’t eat as much as I would like to vomit. I lost 2 Inf in DGu, which really hurts and of course Hawaii is nothing but desaster. Instead of shifting 6 IPC from the US to Japan and having an operational port under my ass, I have to creep back somewhere safe now. I guess I should take this as a lesson not even to take tiny chances in battles as important as this one.

The map is attached.

PS: You hit above average in Yunnan too, and your AA got a Fighter. I wouldn’t call that a lucky battle for me.

First Blood (Japan3).AAM
First Blood (Japan3).AAM

[tinydictator]

This is the correct map again.

I guess I indeed have still very good odds winning this game on the Atlantic side of the map. Its nonetheless frustrating to see your entire strategy go bust on an outcome as ridiculous as this.

First Blood (Japan3).AAM

[tinydictator]

small change: The sub from sz6 goes to sz33 and the DD from sz6 goes to sz26.

First Blood (Japan3).AAM

[Pakitho]

I had luck all-round (except the sub), including Yunnan. But the DGU takes the cup, it was pretty incredible.

As for Hawaii, I ran the calculator (now, I’m not using one, or else I wouldn’t have the guts to carry through my attriction strategy) and it were 25% of getting one 1 on the first round. You knew that if that happened and I rolled average (1 hit), it would be same hits, less points for you… You should have gone in with the fig. But even if you did, I still got two inf standing. With the same (admitedly lucky) rolls, even if you had killed another inf in the meantime and took the last hit on the fig, it would still be a 3 v 2 showdown…

I don’t think you were ever going to win in the Pacific, I was feeling quite confident of holding out Sydney (still a few turns before you get there, with our without the DGu inf, and 22+ to spend) and bogging you down in Hawaii with a couple rounds’ spending by the US (which you wouldn’t be able to keep up with without NOs) - but then again I don’t know your strategy…

Another small consolation is that luck evens out, and you want it on your biggest chance - which always was Europe, particularly with the high-flying Italians. I usually prefer my luck in the Russian stepes :wink:

Good night!

[tinydictator]

Hm, I don’t have a caluclator, but if my stochastic skills don’t fail me, that is not correct. My probability to score hits in the shore bombardment round was 1.6% for no hits and 11.5% for 1 hit. That means 86.9% 2+ hits. And even if  I have only one hit and you have one hit (as it happened), it is 2 Inf 1 Tank vs 3 Inf, which usually is also more likely to either mutual annihilation or a win for me, and not you surviving with 2 units:

Even in round 2, I had a 65.3% chance to score 1+ hits (your chance to get 2+ hits was 25.9%). Thus, even if the odds were slightly on your side, the by far most likely outcome was for each of us to have exactly one hit (48.6% for me and 44.4% for you, the remaining outcomes sharing the rest of the probabilities).

If that happens, it is 1 Inf, 1 Tank vs 2 Inf, and then the odds are slightly on my side: 0/1/2 is 41,67%/50%/8,3% for me vs 44,4%/44.4%/11.1% for you.

Instead, I had no hit, The probability of this result, if I take your 1 hit in round 1 as a given, was 4,78% (my only consolation being that I did not hit the jackpot of scoring no hits at all in two rounds, which was at 0,55%). So yes, I took a chance of about 5% in an important battle when I didn’t needed to. Apparently that was silly.

[Pakitho]

I’m not saying that, all that I am saying is why take a 20%, or even 10% chance, on a decisive battle when you can avoid it? A 10% event will happen once every 10 rolls. After that, a tank and three inf against 3 inf is always risky - the 2 surviving inf are nice, but mutual annihilation favours me too.

The problem is that small battles swing so easily. My rolls weren’t that lucky, I only hit two once. You had 1 when you should have gotten 3, 0 when should have gotten 1, and 1 on a 50%. We’ve seen more incredible stuff - like the D.Gu battle right now. Imagine I had gotten three hits in the first round against your average three? How many times we’ve seen infantry hit three times in a row… The bad luck just hurts more because it was crucial.

However, you were only in the position to make the assault because my previous attack on those units failed utterly… On average the cruiser would be dead by round 2, one extra hit with a sub and you’d add the damaged battleship or make the ac inoperable…

But if you feel strongly about this particular turn of bad luck, we can re-roll all the fights.

[Pakitho]

Let me add that the swing in Hawaii - 3,5 hits on my favour - is huge considering the number of units involved, but as I said I don’t need any surviving inf, just to hold the territory. So a 1,5 swing (like you hitting 2 on your second round) would be enough.

[tinydictator]

no need to re-roll, just some need of bitching.

Obviously I did not calculate this battle in advance as precisely. If someone would have told me “look you have a 10% chance of failure without the Ftr”, I would have send the fighter in. So I fully take the blame.

But still, even though not taking Hawaii is the main desaster, having 2 Infs surviving there adds insult to injury. If it would have been mutual annihilation at last I may have a (better) chance at a later point, which is no rather doubtful. Depending on your moves, of course.

[Pakitho]

I can totally relate to the need of b*tching about bad luck!  :-) It does make a difference though, so feel free to reconsider re-rolling Japan’s turn after my US, China and UK turn.

I just noticed I have one transport missing in W.US, bought it in the first turn and never placed it (I’ll correct to two there).

US 3

Buy (66):

1 inf (3)
2 subs (12)
3 tra (21)
1 dd (8)
2 fig (20)
save 2

Combat:

Sz89: 1 dd, 1 tac, 1 ac (Sz10) - I checked and Sz64 connects to Sz11

1 dd, 1 tac, 1 ac v 1 sub
Rolls: 1@2 1@3; Total Hits: 21@2: (1)1@3: (2)
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 11@1: (1)

[Pakitho]

Hit on the dd.

That sub is a hero, has given me nothing but trouble and, true to form, went down fighting… I take my hat off as he sinks into the cold depths.

NCM:

S.Me: 1 inf, 1 art (C.US)
W.US: 1 fig (land from Sz10)
Sz89: 1 tra (Sz10)
Sz25: 1 dd (Sz10)
Sz10: 1 sub (Sz12)

Build:

W.US: 2 subs, 1 dd (Sz10), 2 figs
E.US: 3 tra

No need to roll for convoy raiding of Hawaii, I’ll take the 1 IPC off.

Collects:

49+20 (69)

[Pakitho]

Place inf in E.US too, and add the two to the income that I saved (71).

China 3:

Buy (16):

5 inf (15)
save 1

Combat:

Kwe: 1 inf (Yun)
Kwa: 1 inf (Yun)
Anh: 1 inf (Hop)
Jeh: 1 inf (Cha)

Jeh
1 inf v 1 inf (first hit)
Rolls: 10@1; Total Hits: 210@1: (2, 1, 6, 4, 1, 6, 4, 6, 3, 2)
Rolls: 10@2; Total Hits: 210@2: (3, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 6, 5, 6, 2)

[Pakitho]

Those Cha chinese communists have been outstanding too…

NCM:

Sik: 1 inf (She)
Hop: 3 inf (Sui), 1 fig (Bur)

Build:

She: 1 inf
Cha: 1 inf
Yun: 3 inf

Collect:

12

[tinydictator]

well I can’t re-roll everytime I have bad luck, can’t I?

Concerning the sub - it was a true hero indeed (one iron cross with oak leafs coming up), but are you sure that sz64 connects to sz11? I always thought it didn’t. If you put the maps together, it is sz28 that connects to sz64.

Concerning your transport, I’m pretty sure that you did place it - it is exactly the transport that is in sz10 right now. Your other two transports got both destroyed when I attacked sz26 in J1 and J2 (as one Pearl Harbour wasn’t enough for you  :wink: ).