How is it 80% in 110?, if the UK scrambles, everything is a wash except for 2 subs with surprise strikes. Even if you have that kind of advantage, you’re looking at about 3 rounds minimum to finish them. If I were going to do what you are suggesting, I would sacrafice my battleship in 110 to be sure that I get out with my air units.
What if you attack z111 with air and subs, attack z110 with air plus battleship and sub(s), and you also take Normandy and build an airbase in Holland? You will take 1 hit on the battleship, but protect it with the scramble and repair it with the Normandy naval base next turn. Hitting z111 prevents a strike on your battleship because all they would have is the destroyer from z109, the z91 cruiser, and the precious RAF. The new airbase in Holland will make them think you are going sea lion and if you really are then the Holland airbase will protect your fleet after the invasion. The airbase does kind of the same job as the carrier in z112 used to do (protect battleship and feign sea lion). Hitting z110 prevents those ships meeting up with the others in z92 and bringing out the battleship probably saves a plane.
@Young:
How is it 80% in 110?, if the UK scrambles, everything is a wash except for 2 subs with surprise strikes. Even if you have that kind of advantage, you’re looking at about 3 rounds minimum to finish them. If I were going to do what you are suggesting, I would sacrafice my battleship in 110 to be sure that I get out with my air units.
Do the battle calculations yourself, I will come out with on average three planes while UK will lose everything. In both seazones I have 80% plus victory. I can afford to lose 3 planes knowing that UK has 3 less as well. And as I said, I don’t want to waste a perfectly good Battleship to ensure that England doesn’t Scramble. I would prefer them to sacrifice their planes.
@Vance:
What if you attack z111 with air and subs, attack z110 with air plus battleship and sub(s), and you also take Normandy and build an airbase in Holland?� You will take 1 hit on the battleship, but protect it with the scramble and repair it with the Normandy naval base next turn.� Hitting z111 prevents a strike on your battleship because all they would have is the destroyer from z109 and the precious RAF.� The new airbase in Holland will make them think you are going sea lion and if you really are then the Holland airbase will protect your fleet after the invasion.� The airbase does kind of the same job as the carrier in z112 used to do (protect battleship and feign sea lion).� Hitting z110 prevents those ships meeting up with the others in z92 and bringing out the battleship probably saves a plane.
Interesting, the question is…. How will a $15 air base and a campaign investment on the channel coast translate into success 3 to 4 rounds into the game. Good ideas that ethier serve only the first round, or deserve some later round follow up ideas.
@Young:
How is it 80% in 110?, if the UK scrambles, everything is a wash except for 2 subs with surprise strikes. Even if you have that kind of advantage, you’re looking at about 3 rounds minimum to finish them. If I were going to do what you are suggesting, I would sacrafice my battleship in 110 to be sure that I get out with my air units.
Do the battle calculations yourself, I will come out with on average three planes while UK will lose everything. In both seazones I have 80% plus victory. I can afford to lose 3 planes knowing that UK has 3 less as well. And as I said, I don’t want to waste a perfectly good Battleship to ensure that England doesn’t Scramble. I would prefer them to sacrifice their planes.
Odds calculations are all accurate and good, but all it takes is a angry dice god to decimate my entire air force (the back bone of German success) as early as G1. I may be wrong and your strategy for this new alpha+3.9 setup may become standard, but it makes me nervous at this stage.
@Young:
@Young:
How is it 80% in 110?, if the UK scrambles, everything is a wash except for 2 subs with surprise strikes. Even if you have that kind of advantage, you’re looking at about 3 rounds minimum to finish them. If I were going to do what you are suggesting, I would sacrafice my battleship in 110 to be sure that I get out with my air units.
Do the battle calculations yourself, I will come out with on average three planes while UK will lose everything. In both seazones I have 80% plus victory. I can afford to lose 3 planes knowing that UK has 3 less as well. And as I said, I don’t want to waste a perfectly good Battleship to ensure that England doesn’t Scramble. I would prefer them to sacrifice their planes.
Odds calculations are all accurate and good, but all it takes is a angry dice god to decimate my entire air force (the back bone of German success) as early as G1. I may be wrong and your strategy for this new alpha+3.9 setup may become standard, but it makes me nervous at this stage.
I agree with you that Germany can lose a sizable chunk of its air force early one, which at that points almost obligates a Sea-lion invasion. My personal preferred strategy is to wipe out England’s Navy while strengthening my own, and then moving my air force to help in Russia. This would be easier if England didn’t scramble, but if they did, then I will seize the opportunity and take London.
Seazone 110: 2 fighters from W Germany, 1 tac from W Germany, 1 tac and 2 strats from Germany and 2 subs
I think I would scramble. The odds of Germany winning that work out to 79.2% (dskelly), but more importantly the average losses to Germany come out at 49 IPCs. That would be 2 subs plus 3 or 4 of the planes on average. Plus don’t forget about the 1 in 5 times that all 6 planes are lost - that’s half the Luftwaffe and all the Bombers. Like YG said, bad dice on the first turn and your game would be pretty well screwed. I like the way you would attack z111 though.
For z110 suppose you do what you said above but also roll out the battleship (perhaps with a new airbase to protect it). With that the odds come out to 98.1% with the scramble, and average losses are 32 IPCs (2 subs, 1 fighter). With no scramble (pretty likely) the odds are 100% and the average loss is 5IPCs (1 sub). You don’t get to convoy raid or SBR but you really smoke the Royal Navy. Now if Italy can just take Gibraltar the battleship can go down to z92 on round 2.
With the new setup, Italy can only do what the UK allows them to do, and with the pressure off sealion, it’s put squarely on Italy with the threat of an IC in Egypt UK1. Italy should have been given a tac bomber in northern Italy IMO.
