Operation Sealion? Really?

[suprise attack]

The last two weekends I was Germany and Sealion worked both times. The first one my dice went south when I turned against Russia, the second one my opponents didn’t have the rolls and I was able to win
  Turn 1  1 Carrier, 1 Destroyer, 1Sub
  Turn 2  8 Transports
  Turn 3  Inf, Art, Arm, and try to replace any aircraft lost and possibly a Sub

Turn 1  Take the French Capital and hit Sea zones 112 with BB and CR and a plane or two.  S.Z. 111 with a Sub or two ( 118 &124).  110 I’ll send 6 planes ( 3 Tact’s & 3 Fighters) I also send the sub from 108. S.Z. 106 with a Sub or two, I will sometimes send a Sub down to S.Z. if I don’t send two at 106.  I hope they scramble on the 110 battle because with 7 attacks I can sink everything there and with some luck eliminate Fighters that they will need for defense of their Capital.  With the ALPHA+3 Germany has more planes (stat. bombers) that could help out.

I also bring my Italian Airforce up to take out any British Navy that they may deploy in 110.

Young Grasshopper has a good opening first 3 turn sealion stat posted in this thread just go look for it
  Pray to the dice gods or wear your lucky shirt,shoes,sweater, or whatever

Good luck and keep on rollin

Depending on what U.K. does determines how many Transports you’ll need to buy

[spiderman251]

Can fighters scramble from the UK? I was under the impression that fighters could only scramble from and island. An island being a territory within a sea zone. I don’t believe that the UK qualifies.

[kcdzim]

@spiderman251:

Can fighters scramble from the UK? I was under the impression that fighters could only scramble from and island. An island being a territory within a sea zone. I don’t believe that the UK qualifies.

per OOB rules, the UK territories do not count as islands and cannot scramble.  Per Alpha rules, airbases have been revised such that any airbase can scramble to adjacent seazones.

[Jercules]

A variation on sealion I’d suggest is to make bomber buys G1, and strat. bomb London on G1 and G2.

It sets up an interesting scenario; you can pass on the immediate Sealion, going Barbarossa and using those bombers to strat. bomb Russian IC’s, while at the same time keeping an eye on London… often times, the UK player is so excited to build IC’s in the middle east, or navy in Canada, that they neglect to pay off the damage, and even with a modest income the Germans can plop seven transports at once at any time (even better if you discretely build one or two in the meantime).

Of course, against a perfect opponent such nefariousness is not possible, but nobody is perfect.

[Guest]

How about 2 bombers, 1 sub.  If UK builds all infantry, you stick the sub in z125 to block the Murmansk NO and the bombers help you kill Russians.  If London is weak, you convoy raid and bomb London, then use them in the sea lion attack itself.

[jim010]

How do you  defend sz112 from an attack on UK1?

[Guest]

You don’t.  Leave the surface ships in z113 or use them to attack z110 or z111 (assuming the the new setup).

[jim010]

In the new set up, the CAs are still in sz112.  You can’t get out.

So you skip sz112.  Interesting.  What does France and UK do with those ships?

[Alsch91]

In Krieghund’s most recent proposed changes, the 112 CAs are moved -

French ship to 110
UK ship to 111.

Along with a few other changes.
None of those changes are official at all yet.

[jim010]

I’m aware of those changes, but is Larry even considering them, or is this Krieghund unofficially trying to make up for his boss’s mistakes that he himself won’t correct?

[suprise attack]

I like ALPHA+2 so far it has been the most challenging for the Axis. The 3 or 3.5 (I have both coppied on cardboard)  take too much away ( Brit’s in France, air & naval bases over the entire board) and seem to make easier for the Axis to get powerfull early in the game, and with a little luck the Allies cant catch up in time
I forgot to say seazone 91 I send one sub about half the time, and seazone 111 a sub and a couple planes ( stat. bomber, a fighter or two and a tact. or two)  I change it a little each time seazone 112 a BB and Crusier and a plane or two and deploy my CV DD and sub there
I say take the best of each one to make an ALPHA+16  give Germ. the extra Strat & Inf in Norway, Great Britian gets the tact, keep the BB for Russia etc.
If it aint broke dont fix it

[Alsch91]

@jim010:

I’m aware of those changes, but is Larry even considering them, or is this Krieghund unofficially trying to make up for his boss’s mistakes that he himself won’t correct?

I can’t really say either way.  It seems to me like it’s just Krieg doign this, but I can’t speak for him.

Surprise Attack -

I agree with you.  I think Alpha 2 was quite a bit more balanced and had more interesting options for both sides, and many choices that had to be made.

[Jennifer]

My question is, has anyone checked how Krieg’s alterations adjusts the percentages?

Anyway, there’s literally no way for England to stop Sea Lion in Alpha 3, well, short of getting 21x 1’s on the dice!  The question is, what do you do after it falls?  Some have claimed the ridiculous tactic of buying all fleet for Russia on round 1 so the Russians can soften up the Germans for an American attack on Germany the round London dies (with the Americans in SZ 102).  Without the Russians, there’s not a snowball’s chance in hades of sinking the German fleet - but with the Russian fleet, perhaps Moscow becomes a juicier target?  It’s certainly possible to win a Barbarossa game, and if Russia goes full navy, shouldnt those odds improve?  Moscow, Stalingrad and Leningrad are 3 Victory Cities, London is one, and let’s not forget shifting priorties to Moscow grants Germany 70 IPC extra ground and air units for the attack (since they do not buy transports.)

[jim010]

Even Alpha 2 there was no way of getting Sealion below 60%.

Russian navy?  Interesting.

My first impulse is to laugh, but maybe there’s something to it?  Where do they build it?  Baltic or Arctic?

[suprise attack]

In the 3 games where Russia has bought into a navy it has only worked once. That was because Germany left their capital empty. That was one of the first games (ALPHA+2)
The cost of even a DD is just that much less that Russia has in land units to stop the Germans.
In one of our most recent games the Russian’s did buy into a navy but I think that was just for show because it was pretty much over. My dice went so far south it wasn’t funny.

[jim010]

So what you’re saying is that I should give into the impulse to laugh.

[Alsch91]

@jim010:

Even Alpha 2 there was no way of getting Sealion below 60%.

Well I think that’s pretty important for game balance.
I don’t think UK should ever be able to completely remove the chance of Sealion.
But that 60% number is a heck of a lot better than the situation in Alpha 3.  Even with a full-defense UK Germany still has nearly unstoppable odds.

[Jennifer]

@jim010:

Russian navy?  Interesting.

My first impulse is to laugh, but maybe there’s something to it?  Where do they build it?  Baltic or Arctic?

To attack the German fleet in SZ 110, it would have to be built north of Novgorod in the Arctic.  The purpose is to make it statistically possible for the Americans to sink the Germans with all the fighter/bombers on their carriers in SZ 102 and their strategic bombers from E. USA (assuming Germany does not take Scotland of course.)

[JamesG]

@jim010:

Russian navy?  Interesting.

My first impulse is to laugh, but maybe there’s something to it?  Where do they build it?  Baltic or Arctic?

One of the main people proposing this is not buying “all navy” on R1.

His proposal, from what I gather, is as follows:

On R1, assuming G1 looks like a possible sealion set up, buy 1DD, 2SS (in the Arctic) and a mix of land units.
UK1 buy ground defense in London.  Claim Eire.  Move most of Med fleet to z92.
US1 buy 3 Bombers, remaining money can be 2DDs or a Carrier, but the US should be preping to have a Carrier in z102 on US2.

If Germany buys the transports for sealion on G2, then
R2 buys 1 Bomber, the rest land units.  Move Arctic fleet out to Altantic in range of z110.
UK2 mass surviving Atlantic and Med fleets in z109 supplement with SS purchases, maybe a DD.  Have some land forces is Scotland and Eire and try to have 2-3 fighters in Scotland.  Move bomber to Iceland.
US2 buy 3 more bombers in East US (total of 7 there now).  Remaining money is 2 DD or a CV for the Pacific.  Move a Carrier (and maybe Pacific BB as well) to z102 with Fighter/Tac.

After a successful G3 sealion, Russia, US, and UK do a three-way attack on the German fleet in z110.
Russia can bring 3 SS, 1 DD, 1 Bomber.
US can bring 7 Bombers, 1 Fighter, 1 Tac.
UK can bring a mix of fleet, some fighters, a Tac, and a Bomber.  The exact mix depends on results of earlier battles and buys.

One of my concerns with this plan is it leaves London so light on ground forces that Germany can afford to divert some transports and air cover to z119 to take Eire and Scotland on G3, depriving the US bombers of a landing zone.  Not sure if this a real concern though, since Germany would have to divert at least 3, maybe more, transports to take both territories and a fair amount of air to cover the possible scramble from Scotland.  And any transports sent to z119 will die on one of R3, US3, or UK3.

The other concern is Germany goes Barbarossa starting in G2 after seeing the R1 buy.  Though in this case it is not like the Russian navy is useless.  It can convoy Norway, forcing DD purchases if Germany wants to clear, and/or provide padding to allied fleets in the Atlantic or Med allowing them to make earlier advances in those areas, and/or serve as a can opener for allied fleets.  Yes, boots on the ground would be more useful for Russia in the face of Barbarossa, but the fleet isn’t useless.  And the US1 purchase can quickly swing to the Pacific if need be after Germany abandons sealion.

[Jennifer]

Here’s my main issue with a Russian fleet buy:  They have to do it on Round 1, but Germany is not committed to Sea Lion on Round 1.

(The above is the nutshell, details below for those who don’t read long posts)

A)  Germany virtually needs to have 5 transports in the middle game so they can land infantry built in Germany on Novgorod.  Buying two transports brings Germany up to 3 transports, which really isn’t much.
B)  Germany virtually needs an aircraft carrier for the entire game anyway (not to mention a few destroyers and a handful of submarines, just to keep the allies honest) so buying it on Round 1 isn’t really much of a waste.
C)  If Russia buys 2 submarines and 1 destroyer (which is the minimal amount I’ve seen suggested for Russia and it only gets more expensive from there) they have to do it on Round 1 (else it cannot hit SZ 110 or SZ 109 on round 3) and costs Russia 20-36 IPC which is 7-12 less infantry for Germany to plow through.
D.  If Russia buys fleet, then Germany can use the 70 IPC they have to spend on round 2 on ground units instead of transports - meaning there’s a whole mess more Germans hitting the Russians a whole lot sooner!

Effectively, you end up with:
1)  7-12 less infantry for Russia which is 7-12 less hits before losing tanks/fighters, and 14-24 less defensive punch - not to mention opportunity costs and other factors of not buying more infantry on round 1.
2)  10 more German infantry, 10 more German Artillery for 20 more hits and 40 more punch attacking the Russians

Of course, I could be missing something.