Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll

[corriganbp]

didn’t get any better there

[corriganbp]

40% of your shots at 2 hit that time.

[corriganbp]

and so a battle where I had 90% odds and should have come out 100 ipcs ahead,
by the third round has me down to 30% odds and 72 ipcs more in damage than expected.

I’m pretty sure that’s a 1 in 100 type of victory for you.

At this point, if we play it out it’s just to see how long it takes you to capture the capitals.

[corriganbp]

CRD in 105Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 01@3: (4)

[corriganbp]

I’d say it’s over.

Germany Winter 43-44.AAM

[corriganbp]

109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 80@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 5180@1: (6, 1, 2, 4, 2, 4, 1, 3, 3, 3, 4, 2, 6, 1, 2, 1, 3, 5, 1, 4, 3, 4, 4, 6, 4, 1, 5, 3, 4, 4, 1, 3, 5, 3, 6, 1, 6, 1, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, 4, 4, 4, 2, 1, 1, 5, 6, 5, 6, 4, 1, 4, 2, 1, 6, 1, 4, 6, 2, 3, 1, 5, 5, 4, 5, 4, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 1)62@2: (2, 6, 2, 3, 4, 1, 1, 4, 5, 2, 1, 6, 2, 1, 1, 6, 6, 2, 2, 1, 6, 1, 5, 5, 4, 6, 6, 1, 3, 3, 2, 4, 2, 3, 6, 6, 3, 1, 4, 2, 2, 4, 1, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 4, 4, 4)10@3: (2, 6, 6, 2, 6, 3, 2, 3, 4, 4)5@4: (6, 5, 1, 4, 6)
DefendRolls: 121@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 55121@2: (4, 1, 3, 1, 5, 6, 6, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 6, 2, 2, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 6, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 1, 1, 6, 4, 2, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 2, 2, 1, 6, 2, 1, 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 6, 6, 6, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 5, 2, 2, 5, 2, 6, 6, 6, 3, 1, 6, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 6, 4, 3, 6, 3, 3, 5, 4, 4, 1, 1, 5, 6, 2, 1, 5, 4, 6, 5, 3, 3, 5, 3, 4, 1, 3, 6, 2, 5, 2, 3, 5, 6, 6, 4, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 3, 1, 5)12@3: (2, 3, 5, 6, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1, 3, 5, 4)2@4: (3, 2)

[corriganbp]

still not good but not crazily bad.

[corriganbp]

54 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 25 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 25@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3625@1: (6, 1, 4, 6, 6, 5, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 4, 2, 1, 6, 5, 5, 3, 1, 1, 4, 5, 6, 4)62@2: (1, 2, 5, 3, 4, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 4, 5, 5, 6, 2, 3, 2, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 1, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 5, 6, 6, 5, 1, 3, 4, 5, 2, 5, 1, 4, 2, 1, 1, 5, 6, 3, 1, 2, 5, 3, 2, 5, 5, 5)10@3: (6, 2, 1, 4, 4, 5, 3, 3, 4, 4)5@4: (5, 1, 2, 1, 5)
DefendRolls: 72@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3372@2: (3, 4, 1, 4, 5, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 2, 1, 4, 1, 5, 4, 3, 5, 1, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, 6, 1, 2, 2, 2, 6, 5, 6, 6, 2, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 3, 6, 4, 1, 1, 2, 4, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 1, 4, 5, 1, 5, 6, 2, 6, 6, 1, 5, 6, 2, 3, 5, 6, 1, 3, 4)12@3: (4, 3, 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5, 3, 5, 1, 1)2@4: (6, 4)

[corriganbp]

I’d still say this is going your way, but it’s at least reasonable.

[corriganbp]

21 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 36 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 54@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2554@2: (3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 5, 1, 4, 2, 3, 4, 6, 5, 3, 6, 5, 2, 4, 3, 1, 5, 2, 2, 6, 5, 4, 6, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 4, 4, 5, 4, 1, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 3, 3, 2, 5)10@3: (4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 4)5@4: (2, 3, 1, 1, 2)
DefendRolls: 36@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1636@2: (4, 4, 6, 1, 5, 6, 1, 4, 5, 5, 5, 3, 1, 2, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 4, 2, 6, 4, 5, 1, 1, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 3, 4, 4)12@3: (2, 4, 1, 6, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 6)2@4: (5, 6)

[corriganbp]

5 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 11 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 38@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2038@2: (1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 1, 4, 5, 1, 1, 2, 6, 2, 3, 5, 5, 3, 2, 6, 5, 1, 2, 1, 5, 1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 5, 3, 6, 1, 3, 6, 6, 4, 3)10@3: (5, 4, 4, 6, 4, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6)5@4: (4, 4, 4, 4, 5)
DefendRolls: 11@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 811@2: (5, 2, 6, 6, 1, 5, 6, 6, 2, 5, 6)12@3: (4, 5, 6, 2, 1, 4, 5, 5, 3, 3, 4, 6)2@4: (5, 2)

[corriganbp]

30 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 2 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 30@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2430@2: (1, 5, 5, 1, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 4, 6, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 1, 3, 4, 1, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 3, 6, 3, 1, 1)10@3: (3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 3, 3, 6, 1, 1)5@4: (3, 6, 2, 2, 6)
DefendRolls: 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 12@3: (3, 4)2@4: (6, 5)

[Noll]

I’m sorry Corrigan but this time I’m going to tell you something.

45% hit ratio and 40% hit ratio on a 33% expected result is not luck.

33% is the average expected result.

This means the result can vary from 20% to 50% and this still can’t be considered luck.

A result of a 66%+ hit ratio on an expected hit of 33% could be considered luck.

That’s why in Axis and Allies you need overwhelming forces to conduct a battle that big. And you didn’t had overwhelming forces. In fact the fight guaranteed a win for you with few units surviving (and for few I mean that 20 to 30 units in a battle of this scale are indeed few).

In round#1 you hitted 15times with @1 out of 80, that’s 3 more, so that’s a 40/45% too.

I know if I where Germany I wouldn’t have attacked that stack. (Although it was juicy, but that’s only because I didn’t notice the 3tac.bombers).

Still, remember the battle calculators are not gold. A battle with 300 units involved shouldn’t change from 67% to 90% with 3 more units.

And I’m sad you made that attack, 'cause the game was interesting, and I hate games where you decide everything in 1 battle (like the multi games where Jim tried Russia rush or Anzac rush)

5inf hitted 3 times my bombers.

5inf are expected to hit 1,66 times, they hitted double their expected chance. That’s luck

Then the round after 2 inf hitted 1 time the surviving bomber.

2 inf are expected to hit 0,66, still they hit 1 (+33%), that’s, again, luck, but nobody complained.

[corriganbp]

Taken with 29 arts and 9 tanks, pretty close to expected and basically what I needed.

[Noll]

@corriganbp:

Taken with 29 arts and 9 tanks, pretty close to expected and basically what I needed.

and you where lucky, hitted more than average, and still typed that the fight was on my side.

[corriganbp]

you have to consider the law of large numbers, 45% hits with 2 is exceptionally strange when you are rolling that number of dice.

[Noll]

It can still happen, and it can happen on either side. Actually on a large battle like that a +7% is not that crazy.

Anyway, did you like this module?

[corriganbp]

of course it can happen, but it’s not likely, and there is absolutely no comparison between the outcome of the first vs. the second battle in terms of luck.

The first battle was absolutely flukey.

[Noll]

In battles like that everything is decided round#1, and I’m sure you know it.

[corriganbp]

Expected number of hits with 121 shots at 2 = 121/3 = 40.33.

Variance of the distribution is 121 x (1/3) x (2/3) = 26.89.

St Deviation = sqr (26.89) = 5.19.

You got 48 hits, so that’s 48 - 40.33 = 7.67 or 7.67/5.19 = 1.48 standard deviations above the mean.