Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll

[corriganbp]

I have to, I have no choice.

[Noll]

You have 67%, decent odds, but not that high, luck could bless either you on me.

[corriganbp]

how do you come up with 67%, you missing some of my forces?

[corriganbp]

Italy collects 17 + 2 saved = 19 less CRD

CRD in 72 capped at 2Rolls: 2@3; Total Hits: 22@3: (1, 1)

[Noll]

http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&rules=4&aaGuns=true&attInfantry=109&attMechanizedInfantry=2&attArtillery=31&attTank=9&attFighter=2&attBomber=2&defInfantry=74&defMechanizedInfantry=9&defArtillery=38&defTank=11&defFighter=2&defTacticalBomber=1&defBomber=2&defAircraftCarrier=1

[corriganbp]

you missed my 3 tactical bombers in w germany

[Noll]

Oh damn…

Well Russia’s turn is already done, my bad.

[corriganbp]

However, I not only need to win this, I need to get something close to the expected result or better.

[Noll]

90% >>

[corriganbp]

the key is the 100 ipc spread in damages, you’ve been able to turn several battles that looked like they had massacre potential into almost even exchanges, an even exchange will not carry the game for me, now i need the dice to be kind.

[Noll]

and you did the same, many times, but I never pointed it out.

[Noll]

If the calculator is right, you should survive with around
7arm 2fig 3tac 2bmb (if AA doesnt hit)

[corriganbp]

I get 416 ipcs of damage, that will look like

1 ftr = 10
109 inf = 327
20 arts = 80

that leaves me with 9 armor and 13 arts to hold the territory.

[corriganbp]

sorry, 20 combination of arts and mechs hit.

[corriganbp]

Germany – Winter 1943-44
With 49 ipcs,
12 mechs = 48
Save 1 ipc

Germans assassinate hitler, renounce fascism, this is a war to end communism – all Jews and concentration camps are emptied, please God bless our efforts and allow us to liberate Ukraine!

Attack
N Ukraine (2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac) with
E poland,
3 tacs fr w Germany
2 bmbs fr s Italy
2 ftrs fr 115

Aa gunsRolls: 6@1; Total Hits: 16@1: (6, 3, 5, 5, 1, 3)

[corriganbp]

109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 80@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 4480@1: (4, 2, 1, 3, 1, 6, 6, 4, 5, 2, 4, 6, 6, 1, 2, 1, 3, 6, 1, 4, 6, 5, 2, 2, 6, 6, 2, 3, 5, 1, 4, 3, 2, 5, 5, 3, 5, 5, 6, 3, 1, 3, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 6, 4, 6, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 1, 1, 2, 1, 5, 4, 2, 3, 3, 4, 1, 1, 4, 4, 2, 6, 6, 1, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1)62@2: (1, 6, 4, 5, 4, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 6, 2, 5, 6, 2, 6, 3, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 5, 3, 5, 2, 4, 1, 3, 6, 4, 5, 2, 4, 5, 6, 2, 1, 2, 6, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 3, 6, 2, 2, 5)10@3: (2, 6, 1, 6, 2, 5, 6, 4, 5, 4)5@4: (3, 1, 1, 1, 1)
DefendRolls: 121@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 61121@2: (2, 2, 3, 1, 6, 4, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 1, 3, 2, 1, 6, 6, 4, 3, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 5, 3, 2, 5, 1, 4, 2, 4, 1, 1, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 3, 6, 3, 4, 6, 1, 6, 2, 6, 6, 5, 1, 4, 5, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 6, 5, 5, 3, 2, 2, 3, 2, 5, 2, 4, 2, 2, 5, 2, 3, 4, 2, 1, 5, 5, 6, 5, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 5, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1)12@3: (4, 4, 2, 5, 2, 4, 2, 5, 5, 3, 3, 4)2@4: (2, 2)

[corriganbp]

I seriously can’t imagine the opening round of that battle going any better for you.

[corriganbp]

45% of your shots at 2 hit.

[corriganbp]

sometimes 90% odds are just not enough, now what to do???

[corriganbp]

Attack
N Ukraine (2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac) with
E poland,
3 tacs fr w Germany
2 bmbs fr s Italy
2 ftrs fr 115

48 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 32 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 19@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2919@1: (4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 4, 3, 3, 6, 4, 5, 6, 2, 5, 6, 3)62@2: (5, 1, 4, 6, 4, 1, 2, 4, 6, 5, 6, 6, 2, 3, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 4, 2, 1, 1, 2, 5, 5, 1, 6, 3, 1, 3, 2, 2, 6, 2, 5, 6, 3, 3, 5, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 1, 3, 3, 6, 1, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 6, 6, 5, 3, 6, 1)10@3: (5, 1, 1, 6, 6, 1, 3, 3, 6, 4)5@4: (5, 4, 1, 4, 2)
DefendRolls: 79@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3679@2: (2, 6, 5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 6, 1, 1, 5, 3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 6, 6, 1, 6, 3, 4, 5, 1, 2, 2, 1, 5, 4, 3, 5, 2, 3, 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4, 6, 5, 2, 3, 6, 1, 3, 1, 6, 3, 2, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 5, 3, 2, 3, 5, 5, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1, 6, 1, 6, 1, 3, 5, 1, 6)12@3: (5, 1, 2, 1, 6, 1, 5, 3, 6, 5, 2, 6)2@4: (3, 5)