Axis victory

[Jennifer]

Again, I’m giving you the absolute most likely out comes.

Between the two destroyers in SZs 106 and 109, you cannot possibily expect both to hit.  You can expect neither to hit as that will happen much more often than having both hit.  So it’s pretty safe to say there will be 3 submarines remaining out of the 4 that attacked there.

There are no destroyers left for England (in the Atlantic) so there are no attacks on submarines, you ARE taking Convoy, it’s only a matter of how much.  The argument was made that each submarine averages 2 damage, so 3 submarines ~ 6 damage.

Odds are very slim you hit a bomber on SBR (17% * 17% + 17%, about 20%) so it’s pretty safe to assume you won’t hit any of them - I gave you one anyway, but that’s not very likely an outcome.  Same for the AB, 20% so again, odds are slim you are hitting either tactical bomber as well.  Most likely, you’re actually 21 Infantry, 6 Fighters, 6 Strategic Bombers and 4 AA Guns against 13 Infantry, 4 Artillery, 9 Armor, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers, Cruiser and Battleship, not the severely reduced numbers I gave you assuming England’s defense was well above par.  Even if you roll the AA Guns as both AA Guns and extra defending Bombers (so give them a defensive punch to boot) your odds are generally less than 10% you survive and I just cost you 5 American Strategic Bombers to boot.

Of course, if you introduce bids, things might change.  I don’t play with bids because Larry has failed to give us a game that is close enough to balanced to make bids worthwhile.   As it stands I think the allies need 15 IPC bid but have 24 IPC removed on round 6 to balance things out again (and what is removed and added as to go to England/America).  Basically, they get 5 infantry for England to drop the odds to a coin flip and then on round 6 they lose 3 destroyers so as to keep from being unbalanced again when America’s at full force.

[Jennifer]

@Cow:

oh yeah they took away the airbase on gib didn’t they. Gib is not even necessary then. still have to get those 2 air units over to UK securely.

Yes.  Your options are Gibraltar or Morocco

Germany has 3 Transports, 3 Infantry, 2 Artillery, Armor, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers, Cruiser and Battleship that can hit either (assuming Italy took Algeria so there is a valid landing zone.)

[Cow]

yeah but that means you are moving out and the new transports you bought are guarded by 3 fighters only unless you buy another carrier or something.

morrocco is the sweetest deal because it has an inf on it already.

Either way 5 bombers on UK can make a battle you should win become a coin flip. Round 4 germany taking UK is always a garauntee, which is why I think UK should start out with an extra inf or two, but given the game is dice sometimes g1 is crazy and it loses pretty much nothing and sometimes g1 has more losses than usual.

It really depends, 5 bombers landing on UK makes G3 vs UK rough. I mean would you rather the sure thing or a gamble? Which is the whole point I been trying to drive. even if it is turns 90% to 70% that 20% increase in odds germany fails to take UK… is really crazy when it happens. If it turns it into a coin flip even better. Plus 5 bombers for USA who is out of position from the main theater of war is nothing especially if it leads to germany losing more armor and air than usual, because that is less the ruskies have to worry over. It has a more immediate effect on the europe game.

[wheatbeer]

Cow,

Germany will still go for it with those odds and if it starts to look too dicey it can disengage it’s air force after the US bombers are taken as casualties (after which transports will simply swing back the next turn).  Worst case scenario, London falls one turn later and the US is still down 60 IPC worth of material.  I think Germany will recover against Russia before the US recovers against Japan.

[Jennifer]

I agree with Wheat, I’d still go for London.

Yes, hitting Morocco and killing those planes means the transports dont have surface ship protection, but if they are in SZ 113 the only thing you can hit them with is a strategic bomber unless you pop 16 IPC for an Aircraft Carrier in which case you lost 6 infantry from your defense then it’s 3 fighters defending against 2 fighters, strategic bomber which is 30% for the attacker, 50% for the defender or basically 70% defender (since I dont have to win, I just have to stop you from winning) and 30% for the attacker.

So you’re down 5 aircraft (2 from Africa, 2 from England, bomber from England), 6 Infantry (cost of the aircraft carrier), 2 Infantry (cost from CRD by submarines), you have 11 to 13 damage on your industrial complex and your airbase had to be repaired which cost you 4 more (or 2 infantry).

Total:  4 Fighters, 1 Strategic Bomber, 7-9 Infantry

At this rate, I’ll take London with a vegetable pealer and a wad of chewing gum!

[Gargantua]

All of these WEAK players lack the Vision on how to use their allied forces to WIN Cow.  Don’t ever lose sight of that.

[Jennifer]

@Gargantua:

All of these WEAK players lack the Vision on how to use their allied forces to WIN Cow.  Don’t ever lose sight of that.

Says the man who hasn’t put up any dice in an attempt to both thwart the fall of London AND win the game. :P

[ronrye]

@Cmdr:

Last time I checked it’s still by map - COW.

Allies:  Take Tokyo or Berlin
Axis: Take 8 European Victory Cities or 6 Pacific Victory Cities

---

If I am going Pacific, it’s because Sea Lion did not happen first of all.  Secondly, I’m going hard Pacific with 80% or more going for warships.  I want 4 transports and assorted ground units (5 infantry, 2 artillery, armor) on them and I need units for holding Alaska as well probably.

I’m happiest with 4 battleships and 4 carriers, (dds, cas, sss etc as well of course) but don’t care how that combo comes together.

Where did you get those rule conditions? I thought the Allies won by holding the 3 axis capitals for a complete round

[Jennifer]

Out of the Box Manual:

Allies win by controlling Tokyo, Japan for one full round of play
or
Allies win by controlling Berlin, Germany and Rome, Italy for one full round of play

[ronrye]

Uhhhh, well I can’t say what’s in the oob rules, because I don’t have europe, but don’t you play by Alpha 3 rules and victory conditions?

[knp7765]

@Cmdr:

Out of the Box Manual:

Allies win by controlling Tokyo, Japan for one full round of play
or
Allies win by controlling Berlin, Germany and Rome, Italy for one full round of play

I have to correct you here Jen.  I’ve got the OOB Manual for Europe 40 which also has the Global 40 rules.  On Page 31 under How the War Is Won, it states:
"The Allies win the game by controlling the territories of Germany, Southern Italy, and Japan for a complete round of play, as long as they control an Allied capital (Washington, London, Paris, or Moscow).

So you see, all the Axis capitals have to be in Allied hands, not just on one board or the other.  Only the Axis have split victory conditions and that is only in Alpha+3.  In OOB, the Axis simply had to control any 14 Victory Cities for a complete round of play, as long as they control an Axis Capital (Berlin, Rome or Tokyo).

[Jennifer]

@ronrye:

Uhhhh, well I can’t say what’s in the oob rules, because I don’t have europe, but don’t you play by Alpha 3 rules and victory conditions?

Personally?  I play by when the axis cry uncle the game is over.  I’ve never seen an Axis capitol both taken AND held before the Axis surrender.

[ronrye]

@Cmdr:

@ronrye:

Uhhhh, well I can’t say what’s in the oob rules, because I don’t have europe, but don’t you play by Alpha 3 rules and victory conditions?

Personally?  I play by when the axis cry uncle the game is over.  I’ve never seen an Axis capitol both taken AND held before the Axis surrender.

Right, the axis know when they can’t win, but according to your victory conditions, the Allies could win by taking Japan even if the Axis are about to win on the Europe board. (Although it is true that it’s almost impossible for Japan to be taken.) Another problem with that (of course, it would be rare) is that both the Allies and Axis could win according to those rules–if US takes Japan the same round the Axis control 8 VCs.

[Cow]

All of these WEAK players lack the Vision on how to use their allied forces to WIN Cow.  Don’t ever lose sight of that.

I agree.

Also doing an attack and retreating after USA lost bombers is a much better outcome than UK losing london. UK gets to collect again which is 30ish ipc give or take depending on whatever. So give me a break man. Like the 5 bomber loss is something to sweat. Not like germany won’t lose a few air units to AA guns or anything.

I still think larry harris gimped the united kingdom 2 inf it is supposed to have… in fact whatever happened to an armor on UK?

[Jennifer]

@Cow:

All of these WEAK players lack the Vision on how to use their allied forces to WIN Cow.  Don’t ever lose sight of that.

I agree.

Also doing an attack and retreating after USA lost bombers is a much better outcome than UK losing london. UK gets to collect again which is 30ish ipc give or take depending on whatever. So give me a break man. Like the 5 bomber loss is something to sweat. Not like germany won’t lose a few air units to AA guns or anything.Â

I still think larry harris gimped the united kingdom 2 inf it is supposed to have… in fact whatever happened to an armor on UK?

Your whole American bomber scenario assumes an Early Japan attack, though.  I don’t think you can assume every player who is going to attack England on round 3 is going to start the war on Round 2, especially if they suspect they’re going to lose armor taking England because America put bombers there.

Assuming a normal game, where Germany hits on Round 3, there are no American bombers in England and the odds are over 90% - which has been clearely established after a pretty vigorous debate at Harris Games’ website.

[Cow]

doesn’t assume anything. even if usa is not at war in round 2… not like a bomber buy is useless… not like you can do any combat movements anyway.

besides if war starts round 3. 5 bombers can do some pretty tricky play. like go to africa and sink italy if it gets near egypt or if you feel it in the pacific it can put some pressure on japan naval and keep it from spreading out. sink germany maybe on the off chance he doesn’t have a carrier with 2 fighters bship and cruiser there.

besides japan not entering war round 2 is kind of a good thing for the allies as a whole most of the time.

The round 2 buy can be more bombers to force germany to land guys on scotland instead of UK (unless he wants to lose all his transports).

which is -2 men attacking UK. odds decrease from 90% to about 70% to take down UK.

I’d say that is pretty good. 2 less guys attacking could mean germany suffers more losses on a big battle. could mean 2 fighters get to fire a few extra times on defense. 4 more kills is nothin to shrug at.

[Jennifer]

So you would advocate purchasing 4 bombers on round 1 without regard to what the Axis may or may not do then?

I think this is less than optimal, but then that’s probably due to how we play the game.  I would just worry about not having enough warships to be effective in the Pacific or the Atlantic.  Yes the bombers could get to London later (if it isnt sacked) and conduct bombing runs.

I think you are advocating 5 Strategics, 3 Fighters, Tactical Bomber vs 5 fighters, 1 AC, 1 CA, 1 BB, 3 DD, 13 Transports in SZ 110 right after London falls?  If not, then disregard the following:

Axis:  94.8% Odds of winning
Allies: 3.5% Odds of winning
by: http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html

I don’t think America would do this attack, this is why I am saying that the German fleet is immune from retribution.  Maybe I missed something though?  Assume America cannot get closer than SZ 102 due to not being at war, and cannot land their bombers in England for the same reason.

[jim010]

Another Sealion debate?

We’ve had soo many since the tactic popped up in the summer of 2010.

:roll:

We all know it works quite well barring dice or bad play.  Why start this merry-go-round again?

[Jennifer]

It’s all Sea Lion, Jim!  Common, you’ve known this since Alpha 2, right? lol

Solution:  1 British Economy.  Sea Lion is no longer assured, no more ridiculousness of some pissant India telling the Mighty British Empire it won’t send it’s taxes to London and England can make or break itself!

Possible variant:  Major Complex in India downgraded to Minor Complex.

[jim010]

What do you mean British economy?  1 single collect for UK and India?

I don’t know about that.  With the US pushing their $ in any direction, you don’t see this as being compounded with the UK being able to do the same?

I say just add some useless ground units to UK (AAs, Frenchies or something) to bring the odds down to ~60%.  Then bid for VCs.  My 2 cents.