Axis victory

[Jennifer]

@Cow:

you do a bombing run on UK? what escorts do you have?

5 Escorts, 2 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers

I have never seen anyone scramble their interceptors against this, especially as Germany would love nothing more than to throw 9@1 against your 5@1 and trade you a TB or Fighter for two or yours!

---

Noll,

I thought you meant like the old Magic-84 win of Classic where the allies HAD to surrender at a certain economic point.  Yes, you can always get the other side to surrender before you win.

[fanofbond]

First off I play Alpha 3 and In alpha 3 Japan can take India on turn 5 every time.

With the regular Alpha 3 rules Germany can take London with greater than 90% odds every time no matter what the allies can get there.  Then once Germany takes London they can push Russia back onto their Russian TTs two turns later at the latest, and that will end up hurting Russia more than it will help.  It is an Axis victory every game.

Italy can take as much as they want if the US goes for the Pacific.  On turn 5 they are pushing on India/Russia from the South.

[Jennifer]

I find waiting until round 5 to take India is too hard.  Maybe I am not seeing something.  Round 3 capture of India is pretty simple really, especially juicy if you can grab the 3 Australian planes too - gotta love it when my opponents give me freebies!

[Cow]

you assume you lose only 1 unit out of 9 that flew in. I will take your assumption and round down.

and then

with the AA gun you have 72% odds with those given units on UK. if uk gets 1 or 2 more inf or if you lost 1 air unit anywhere else prior to the battle, the battle is a coinflip and you have 45-55%.

[Jennifer]

I assume if you scramble 5 interceptors that each hit on a 1 that you only got 1 hit, yes.  5/6 < 100% so you are almost certainly NOT getting a second hit.
I assume my 9 aircraft (that each hit on a 1) gets 1 or 2 hits (9/6 = 150%)
I assume your AA Gun which gets 3 or 4 shots at 1 (depending on if I lost a TB to your interceptors) gets no hits or 1 hit

Since that’s 8 shots for the defense (3 AA Gun, 5 Fighters) I assume a total of 1 Aircraft lost and, for worst case scenario, I only kill 1 of your aircraft

[Cow]

there is no scrambling. period, the industrial complex fires at the attackers.

Why don’t you show me the save of G1 at end of turn after placement and G2. Why show me after G3? That’s fail.

Plus you haven’t played someone who flew 5 bombers into london and shoved everything in there. If you don’t calculate AA guns of course germany has better odds, he has 2 extra air units on average, I mean come on. You don’t even give me a fair shake which is why talking to you is like talking to a wall.

[Jennifer]

For those taht cannot open Battlemap:

Germany:

• W. Germany: 3 AA Guns, 2 Infantry, 2 Fighters, 2 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers
• W. France: Infantry, Artillery, Armor
• France: 2 Artillery, 2 Mechanized Infantry, 5 Armor
• Holland: 3 AA Guns, 2 Fighters, 2 Tactical Bombers
• Norway: 3 Infantry
• Finland: 5 Infantry
• Bulgaria: 5 Infantry
• Romania: Infantry
• Poland: 3 Infantry
• Germany: 11 Infantry, 5 Artillery
• Yugoslavia: 7 Infantry, 3 Armor
• SZ 112: Aircraft Carrier, Fighter, Tactical Bomber, Damaged Battleship, Cruiser, 3 Transports
• SZ 109: 2 Submarines
• SZ 106: 1 Submarine

[Jennifer]

@Cow:

there is no scrambling. period, the industrial complex fires at the attackers.

Then you get 4 shots, how are you assuming you get 2 hits?

[Cow]

so you are showing me a save of a dice game where everything went your way, got it. UK puts everything in there. +5 bombers. Then you strategic air raid. lose 1 air unit. 343=10 or 434=11 damage. uk saved 1 ipc from round 1. buys said units. you have 71% with everything goin your way. got it.

[Cow]

also US transports can move out or is it warship… hmm. UK can also block the bombardment with a cruiser.

[Cow]

nvm i am silly, but uk can block the bombardment from germany. which makes the odds a coin flip.

[Jennifer]

Here, Round 1, 2 and 3

I kinda just did something with Russia and Italy etc.  I did the British escape attempt everyone seems fond of and I did your American bombers.  Nothing else, since nothing you can buy on round 2 will be in range to attack me on round 3.

Russia/Italy are realistic, but they could be altered slightly this way or that based on personal preferences.  I assumed 9 infantry, artillery, armor each round - it could be mech or fighters or anything really.

Germany1.AAM
Germany2.AAM
Germany3.AAM

[Cow]

UK can’t block bombardment?

[Jennifer]

@Cow:

nvm i am silly, but uk can block the bombardment from germany. which makes the odds a coin flip.

No, because you can clear anything on Round 2, you don’t attack until Round 3.

As you can see, there are 21 infantry, 5 fighters, 1 tactical bomber, 6 strategic bombers hitting England
I assumed 1 Tactical Bomber lost in the SBR, given that they scale with Armor or Fighters, it really does not matter which it was a TB or a SB, especially since there are good odds it won’t be any of them.
One British fighter could not make it, due to Germany being able to slaughter it if it landed in Gib or Mor.  I guess it would have had better defense (by 1) than the TB.  Most players are keeping one in Africa since it defends better.

21 Infantry, 5 Fighters, 1 Tactical Bomber, 6 Strategic Bombers 4 AA Guns
vs
13 Infantry, 4 Artillery, 9 Armor, 5 Fighters, 4 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers, Cruiser, Battleship (keep in mind the ships are not really NEEDED, and if you try to block them it will cost you 8 IPC and thus drop your infantry count to 18, that’s worse than just letting my ships bombard you since they do an average of 1 damage)

LL:

Round 1:
AA Guns:  1.83 hits (say 2 fighters)
Attacker: 13 Inf, 4 Art, 9 Arm, 3 Fig, 4 Tac, 2 Strat, CA, BB: 92 Punch ~ 15.3 hits
Defender: 21 Infantry, 5 Fighters, 1 Tactical Bomber, 6 Strategic Bombers, 4 AA Guns ~ 11.82 hits

Round 2:
Attacker: 1 Infantry, 4 Artillery, 9 Armor, 3 Fighters, 4 Tacticals, 2 Strategics ~ 11.66 hits
Defender: 16 Infantry, 5 Fighters, 1 Tactical ~ 9.16 hits

Round 3:
Attacker: 5 Armor, 3 Fighters, 4 Tacticals, 2 Strategics ~ 8 hits
Defender: 4 Infantry, 5 Fighters, Tactical ~ 5. 16 hits

Round 4:
Attacker: Armor, 3 Fighters, 3 Tacticals, 2 Strategics ~ 5.33 hits
Defender: 2 Fighters ~ 1.33 hits

So in LL, you go from 10% chance to survive, to 0% chance to survive and this is assuming you get insanely lucky with all your AA Gun shots (hit on the SBRs and 2 hits on the attack even though you have odds of only getting a total of 2 hits overall.)

[Jennifer]

@Cow:

UK can’t block bombardment?

No.  Why would they?
Destroyer: Cost 8
3 Infantry: Cost 9

You would shoot yourself in the foot if you purchased a unit to block the bombard because you’d lose 6 defensive punch and 3 defending units.  The CA/BB combined are only going to do, on average, 1 unit’s worth of damage.

England’s already really strapped for cash because they are dealing with a combination of Convoy Damage (6), Bomber Damage (12) for -18 IPC worth of units to put on the board on Round 2.  If they buy a destroyer as well they’re down 26 IPC out of 34 leaving them 8 IPC to buy units with to defend the British Soil

[Cow]

you should win if all uk has is 21 inf.

also why can’t uk block your bombardment with a ship from the med? (I never suggested uk should buy a destroyer, ever) boosted by the naval base?

[Jennifer]

@Cow:

you should win if all uk has is 21 inf.

also why can’t uk block your bombardment with a ship from the med? (I never suggested uk should buy a destroyer, ever) boosted by the naval base?

Because I take Gibraltar on round 2 and lock you into the Med.

[Cow]

uk can cock block you in 94 so you can’t take it. By doing the conservative play killing the one transport inbetween egy fleet and that fleet. using the 98 fleet

[Jennifer]

@Cow:

uk can cock block you in 94 so you can’t take it. By doing the conservative play killing the one transport inbetween egy fleet and that fleet. using the 98 fleet

With what are you blocking?  Keep in mind you need to be able to survive Italy and keep in mind that Italy can take Algeria allowing the Germans to land there.

I’ve seen all of this (except the American bombers) before.  I displayed the most successful method to minimize the amount of units Germany survives with and added the American bombers into the mix already.  I also gave you a free hit on an aircraft that, by all rights, won’t really be there most of the time.

[Cow]

you use sz 98 to kill the italy fleet between it and sz 94.  it is also how you get the tactical bomber on gibraltar without italy being able to bombard it.