???????????? (Axis) vs Corriganhp (Allies)- Alpha3- no tech

[questioneer]

@corriganbp:

I’m not sure whether I would have scrambled or not.  In a future game, I might scramble and I might have in this one.  It depends on whether or not I believe that I can hold London with what I have vs. whether I know that I am going to lose London and what to do as much damage as possible to the German fleet.

I was a bit surprised that you didn’t provide air cover for your fleet.  I am used to seeing that invasion with air cover, going in with the boats alone and all planes committed to the land is somewhat risky - even if you have better than 50% odds, it’s a high risk that your transport stack is going to be taken out with nothing to show for it, not even any material damage to London.

So even when it’s less than 50%, it’s worth it because the result is so lopsided to the allies.

True, for some strange reason on the last combat move I didn’t leave my planes on the carrier- don’t know why I did that- I definitely slipped on that one.

Funny thing is that you didn’t catch it til later on G3- 2 turns later.  You could have left the carrier and force me to bring in escorts to ensure I land.  I declare escorts (2-3 planes to ensure my troops land) then you declare nothing, let me take out the AC and now I would have less fighters to use on the land assault- makes a very dicey success rate now -like 55% or below versus 77% according to the AABattleCalc.

[corriganbp]

I am not sure why leaving planes on the carrier are relevant or not, you can fly planes to 110 in anticipation of a possible scramble even if those planes weren’t stationed on a carrier to begin with.

The problem with the cv, dmg or undmg’d is that you an then use the sub as cannon fodder, and that pretty much wipes out the usefulness of leaving it in tact.

Plus if I had kept the cv, the Italians would have shot down at least 1 ftr, and more likely 2 or more.

[corriganbp]

given that you can use your sub as cannon fodder against the cv, 1 bmb would be all that you would have needed to protect the fleet.

And if you had shot down 2 fighters, sea lion odds are at 77%, for a net improvment over what actually happened.  Even if you had only shot down 1 (assuming that you had retreated your italian bomber) and I damaged the cv, then the odds are just slightly improved for you, but now with 1 bomber flying over the fleet and the ability to lose the sub as cannon fodder, your fleet is guaranteed protection against the scramble.

[questioneer]

@corriganbp:

By the time you had finished Italy it was too late for me to ask for the cv back.

yes, you would have to fly escorts for the flight to prevent a naval disaster, and that is actually pretty normal for a sea lion invasion, and yes, I would not have scrambled because you provided the escorts, however if you don’t provide escorts, I need to scramble once in a while to keep you honest.

Actually after Italy’s turn is the right time to point out the mistakes- but hey, I’ve done that a couple of times.  One time I caught something a whole round later.  I was playing too many games at the same time so I didn’t catch it fast enough.  Now I only play 3-4 at a time at most.  A lot of times when you play by forum there is “trust” factor otherwise you have to list out all the NCMs and crap and get anal to ensure everything is right.  Tournaments are pretty competitive here and everyone really has to dot their i’s and cross their t’s.  It can get chippy at times- still fun though.

[corriganbp]

I want to get this issue of whether or not keeping the cv was the “right” move.

Let’s walk thru it step by step (one or both of us may walk away learning something by this exercise),

if we turned the tables and you were the allies, if you had to assign 2 hits, would you have lost 2 ftrs, or dmg the cv and lost 1 ftr?

[questioneer]

@corriganbp:

I am not sure why leaving planes on the carrier are relevant or not, you can fly planes to 110 in anticipation of a possible scramble even if those planes weren’t stationed on a carrier to begin with.

The problem with the cv, dmg or undmg’d is that you an then use the sub as cannon fodder, and that pretty much wipes out the usefulness of leaving it in tact.

Plus if I had kept the cv, the Italians would have shot down at least 1 ftr, and more likely 2 or more.

Ah right on planes on CV.  Maybe I would have shot down at least one ftr but the fact that you keep the CV…

1BB, 1SS, 1CV (no fire)
vs
1CV, 6ftrs, 1tac

I wasn’t even planning on using the CZ b/c I needed it to block the US from reaching Gibr- this was hinted in the Italian DD moving out to the Atlantic to block.  The fact is that you can force me to think and "commit " planes to the sea battle that would then not be used for the land battle then bettering your odds for survival greatly.

[corriganbp]

you would definitely have shot down 1 ftr, you rolled 2 hits!  I couldn’t avoid that!  me personally, if my objective is sea lion, my italian bomber would be worth sacrificing to take a shot at shooting down at least 1 more fighter.

[corriganbp]

the usa isn’t going to gib, it’s going to canada to stage a liberation effort - so I would not have predicted that the cruiser wouldn’t be used, and wait a minute, if the cruiser was going to 104, then it should not have been allowed to bombard.

[questioneer]

@corriganbp:

I want to get this issue of whether or not keeping the cv was the “right” move.

Let’s walk thru it step by step (one or both of us may walk away learning something by this exercise),

if we turned the tables and you were the allies, if you had to assign 2 hits, would you have lost 2 ftrs, or dmg the cv and lost 1 ftr?

1. Ok if I were you I would have taken out a French fighter and damaged the CV

2. Then as Germany you would have come in with 1BB, 1SS, 1CV.  You would NOT come in with the cruiser (which I believe I indicated that in the combat move list- this is why it is important to list out the combat moves but no necessarily the NCMs) b/c that was going to be non-combated into z103 later to block US ships from Gibr for a round.

3. As Germany you would see that in order to make a safe landing you need to overcome 1AC and possibly 5ftrs and a tac (crazy as that scramble sounds) which could destroy your invading fleet- according to the AABattleCalc that nearly a 100% win for UK.

4. Germany would have to declare at least 2,3 maybe 4 escorts to the naval battle to ensure your troops get to the coast.

5. When you declare them, as UK I declare none, forcing you to now commit those planes to take out the CV.  Those same aircraft now can’t help in the invasion- making Sealion very hard for Germany now- probably near 55% or below versus 77% depending how many aircraft they committed.

Germany would have had to do the same thing in z109 with the DD there.  Now I kinda see why some people take out those transports so land units don’t get to UK to beef it up.

[questioneer]

@corriganbp:

the usa isn’t going to gib, it’s going to canada to stage a liberation effort - so I would not have predicted that the cruiser wouldn’t be used, and wait a minute, if the cruiser was going to 104, then it should not have been allowed to bombard.

I don’t believe it did- if it did then that is my fault- however, one 3 hit didn’t seem to make a difference in Sealion this time.  Even with the CZ, as UK I probably would have scramble all aircraft b/c UK still has the odds.

[questioneer]

Ah, nevermind I caught myself- an airbase can only scramble up to 3ftr/tac anyway- that mutes my argument- man, I gotta brush up on these rules. :-(

[corriganbp]

I am limited to a 3 planes in the scramble.

[corriganbp]

so you agree that losing the cv was a decent move?

[questioneer]

LOL- I have to laugh at myself sometimes- all this thinking and overthinking one can do in this game and I forget a detail on a rule- ugghh. :-D

[corriganbp]

it’s very easy to do that.

unlimited scrambles would be one effective way to reduce the sea lion odds.

[questioneer]

@corriganbp:

so you agree that losing the cv was a decent move?

well let’s look at the odds now

att
1CV, 1BB, 1SS

def
3ftr, 1CV-damaged

…actually no the BattleCalc says 83.3% UK advantage still…hmmm interesting- you got the battlecalc app???  Very handy. :wink:

[questioneer]

that b/c the CV can take hits but can’t dish them out

Att only has 2 hitting units
Def 4 hitting units

[questioneer]

Gotta go right now- we’ll talk more later tonight maybe.  Go get the AASim app for your phone- by Skelly- really nice. :-)

[corriganbp]

well let’s look at the odds now

att
1CV, 1BB, 1SS

def
3ftr, 1CV-damaged

wait a minute, given the fact that I’m down 1-2 fighters on land, you wouldn’t have committed a couple of planes to the sea?

[corriganbp]

and why would I assume that you weren’t bringing the cruiser?