If Japan allows its fleet to be sunk too early without inflicting equal or greater Allied naval losses, this usually results in a loss.
- If Japan allows its air force to take heavy losses too early, this might result in a loss, it can depend on what happens with the navy. You need to keep the air force together so that it can strike any emerging Allied fleets in tandem with the air force.
The German player only has one real direction in which to vector their forces: Russia. Japan has several, which has already been pointed out. An unwise Japanese player is going to expand out in every possible direction, which leads to an initial high income but spreads its forces out, allowing them to be attacked and defeated piecemeal, especially if the Allied player is willing to fight battles they know they will lose in earlier turns to create a winning battle for one of the countries that plays afterward. This basically works akin to blowing up a balloon too fast, the Allies can pop it, if they have been careful to preserve enough of their starting forces.
The wiser Japanese players move a little more slowly and keep their fleets together. With the Air Base in Kiangsi (I hope that’s the right K province) and the vast majority of the Japanese fleet parked off Malaya or the Philippines, no Allied fleet is going to make a move on the DEI or SZ6 unless they can be sure of surviving the Japanese counter-attack. This is going to take round after round of spending, and if Japan continues to make modest increases to the navy, the Allies won’t be able to keep up for a long time. The game should pretty much be over in Europe by then. Japan can abandon China completely and focus on holding the DEI and still provide an Axis victory, since the Chinese are stuck there (it is harder, however). Holding the DEI is worth +19 to Japan and -9 to India, they need to prioritize holding it in a manner that doesn’t fritter away their naval advantage.
At the start of the game India and ANZAC are total pushovers, those precious air units are the only thing keeping them from being routed. Just seizing Malaya and holding it is a loss of -10 to Allied income. If Japan can’t handle holding every one of the DEI islands, they can focus on Borneo. With Borneo, Malaya, and Hong Kong in Japanese hands (very easy to do) India is down -15 of its income. Park a few ships (preferably subs, once you sink the starting UK and French DDs, which you probably did already if they were used as blockers) off Calcutta and they will have no appreciable income, meaning you won’t even really have to fight them.
ANZAC is in slightly better shape since it has 2 NOs and is far enough away that it is inefficient for Japan to try and send ships down there to convoy away its money. It is hampered by having no access to a major IC and its starting minor IC is only in range of Java once you start making TTs (than can also be a pro, since it takes Japan longer to get to it). ANZAC is the only player in the Pacific that can seriously harass Japan long-term since it would take Japan the longest to utterly crush it. Still, it isn’t hard for Japan to minimize their threat by forcing them to fight for their Outer Island Defense NO or even doing spoiler attacks, dropping an odd Infantry or two into West/North Australia to distract. ANZAC has to make constant choices between buying ground units to beat off a sudden invasion or building up navy to be ready to hit once Japan overextends. If Japan makes the mistake of leaving too little presence in the DEI, then ANZAC is going to start cranking out ships. They need to be forced to invest in ground and TTs as long as possible.
I don’t think losing Yunnan J1 is a game over for Japan. In order for the Allies to really capitalize on it, the UK would have to DoW on UK1/2, which I still think is a terrible idea (although I’m open minded, I might be convinced otherwise). If Japan has been keeping their forces together the Allies will find very few targets in an early DoW, and to me the sacrifice of +20 income for the US for 1 - 2 turns isn’t worth it. Given that 10+ planes are going to be sitting in China, I don’t think the Allies can move enough in there that they won’t just be wiped out J2. Japan can then just say thank you for having the chance to kill these units sooner rather than later.
Another footnote to Japan, I’m very surprised that I don’t see the J3/4 India crush in more league games. I don’t see how the UK-Europe economy can handle keeping Italy down and doing anything to rescue India.
Now, having just said all this Japan is awesome stuff, I don’t actually think the Axis should be expected to win in the Pacific board. With optimal play by all around I would expect the Axis to win on the Europe board every time. Since Japan is potentially much more powerful than Germany (it will hit 70+ income faster than Germany does, even when both sides do well), the USA is almost required to spend everything in the Pacific in order to stave off defeat. Thus, Japan will probably end up suffering more since the Allies have to choice but to hammer them. Another comment said this but I wholeheartedly agree: all of Japan’s Pacific foes are so weak that they will crumble much faster than the Allies will in Europe. Japan’s real mistake comes from trying to crush all these foes at the same time too quickly.
Moving on to Europe-
- If Germany spends too much on naval, this can result in a loss.
- If Germany doesn’t help Italy, this can result in a loss.
The Axis powers in Europe are basically on a shot clock. If they miss their big chance and allow the game to continue, then the Allies have an opportunity to win. But just like in basketball, if they keep calm and just focus on what is important, they shouldn’t miss the shot. The main mistakes I’m seeing on the German side is sending too few ground units after Russia. A lot of German players are dribbling out subs or other naval units to be annoying to the Allies, but there is no need for it. Any time the Allies pose a serious problem at sea, just make a single large buy of navy. If you hold Normandy you can pop a DD right into the Channel to block a fleet that might be trying to go Gibraltar - Germany or Gibraltar - Norway.
The German air force should absolutely be used to help Italy as much as possible (unless you went G1). If you’re just taking a massed stack of units over to Moscow, the Russians are going to just retreat every time anyway, so there is little for the Luftwaffe to do over there. Wipe out all the Allied ships in the Med, leave somebody behind in Italy to scramble if needed, and possibly land others to defend the Italian stack in North Africa if needed. There is plenty of time to redeploy them to Russia later for the final attack, or to send some to Germany if you need to guard against an Allied landing, etc.
At best, it takes the Allies 4 turns from the time they start to prepare an invasion force (from scratch) to the time they finally hit the beach. If the USA can’t do full spending in the Atlantic because it’s worried about Japan, it will be even longer. I think this is the most dangerous part of the G1 attack, since it leaves so many Allied warships on the table, the Allies can shave a turn off their invasion schedule. But again, if Japan is doing the right things, you should still have time.
I haven’t seen anything in my own games that would lead me to offer conclusions on how much of the Mediterranean territories should be split between Germany and Italy, I’ve seen both extremes. But if Italy takes all of it, then Germany is very limited in how they can aid the Italians directly, and all of that income is subject to Convoy damage anyway if the Allies are allowed to get the upper hand at sea. My leaning is that Germany should probably get as much of this income as possible since they want everything to send after Russia.
Europe is a lot harder to evaluate since I think Germany can make a lot less obvious blunders than Japan can. But if it seems like Germany isn’t prioritizing ground units, the Axis are undervaluing an early seizure of Cairo, or Germany isn’t helping Italy get their NOs, then the Axis (may) be heading to a loss. The Axis can lose, but it’s their game to lose.
this just in -
Eggman has begun to write a treatise rivaling that of the venerable “cow”. it’s gonna be a page turner!
