Let’s collect ourselves here! And have some fun. I prefer the Allies, but I am flexible.
G40 League House Rule project
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I was going to guess 10 percent of the time you get diced. But I see Gamerman came to the same conclusion in a few more words.
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Question:
I often ask myself how many wins/losses could you attribute statistically to pure luck. I assume the more games you play the more likely you will reach the statistical averages of rolls over time. But as you do that you will obviously encounter the outlier luck instances. So it seems per X games you play you could safely predict N/X games would be the outlier games where you either get killed or win by luck. Of course strategy would mitigate against luck (but how much?). I assume (I once had a basic understanding of statistics) that the given the relative combat values per number of units generally on the board, the most common roll is about 2.5 chance out of 6? So if the average number of average rolls per game is Z, spread over X games, you would could predict the likely number of outliers that would skew the game?
I was wondering if anyone has run any of the numbers on this.
Am I making any sense here?
you lost me at N/X, I don’t think N has been defined. I say Jeff and Gamer are about right with 10% but they are both good players and good players are usually better at controlling outliers. Outliers are based on variance (statistically speaking) and I will often choose to make fewer stronger attacks in order to decrease the variance of the outcome (the amount dice will hurt me). Similarly If I feel I am winning a game I may decide not to attack a fleet that I have a 60-70% chance to win against because naval battles have a high variance based on value of units lost. If the battle goes bad and my opponent ends up winning this may hurt more than if I just wait, however; if I’m in a close game with an equally good opponent then I would take the 60-70% chance with good odds to come out ahead in unit value.
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Similarly If I feel I am winning a game I may decide not to attack a fleet that I have a 60-70% chance to win against because naval battles have a high variance based on value of units lost. If the battle goes bad and my opponent ends up winning this may hurt more than if I just wait, however; if I’m in a close game with an equally good opponent then I would take the 60-70% chance with good odds to come out ahead in unit value.
This is one of the characteristics of a highly successful A&A player.
I’m thrilled that 2 very successful players have weighed in on the issue.
Could you tell I was enjoying answering that question, Jeff? :-D
I want to reiterate that the roughly 10% of games that the dice steal exists when there a fairly significant disparity in player ability/effectiveness.
I think if you have 2 equally skilled players (so there is little to no skill/experience variance), then the difference in dice luck in a particular game may OFTEN tip the scales (be a deciding factor). So it could be much higher than 10% of games, depending on how good you and your opponents are. -
Oh, and that’s exactly what Tyzoq is saying. If you are close to equal skill level (or you perceive that you have a 50/50 chance of winning the game), then you would rationally enter into battles where you have the upper hand, even if it’s small. Then the dice will enter in and will often bless you or screw you.
In other words, the dice will decide a significant percentage of tight games. If most of the games you play are “dog fights” and could go either way, the dice will often decide them. If you are significantly better or significantly worse than your opponent, even with extreme luck to the worse player the outcome will remain unchanged 8-)
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Whatever, we have another RESULT!
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2.5 chance out of 6? What?
sorry if I was being obtuse, I just had a brain fart last night on this. I was just thinking what is average combat value you roll in a game. I would think it would be around 2, given that the most common unit rolled is a infantry on defense. But I figured it might be higher given the prevalence of armor and ftrs.
10% eh? Sounds like that’s probably right. But is it 10% both for wins and loses due to luck or 5% both ways for a 10% total?
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10% eh? Sounds like that’s probably right. But is it 10% both for wins and loses due to luck or 5% both ways for a 10% total?
It varies so much by player, and how stiff your competition is .
With players of equal skill, I think it will be much higher than 10%.
Re-read what I wrote and ponder it a little more… This question you just asked tells me you didn’t understand half of what I tried to say… :-) -
I want to reiterate that the roughly 10% of games that the dice steal exists when there a fairly significant disparity in player ability/effectiveness.
I think if you have 2 equally skilled players (so there is little to no skill/experience variance), then the difference in dice luck in a particular game may OFTEN tip the scales (be a deciding factor). So it could be much higher than 10% of games, depending on how good you and your opponents are. -
Tyzoq - what was the situation in the game with Fortress? I see you were only in the middle of round 2 - were you winning or losing? Or was it pretty much undecided at that point? I’d like to avoid counting incomplete games in my rankings if nothing was really proved yet…
Thanks
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I can’t look at it until I get home, but I felt I had a better position having won in sea zones 110, 111, and 106 only losing 2 subs on G1 then on G2 Germany sank the rest of the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean losing only 2 fighters (this was set up by Italy taking territory for Germans to land) … China lost their fighter but did get to build artillery on turn 1… but like you said it was only round 2 anything could happen from there on, Japan was barely even involved in the war yet.
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Thanks again
Hmm, I want to award a win and loss when deserved, but yeah, not sure that one went far enough for my purposes. Let me know if you remember more after looking at it, and I’ll consider whatever else you tell me. Sounds like you had a good start going, but maybe too early (for my purposes) to declare a winner or loser.
I hope we haven’t lost Fortress…
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How many games are lost due to extreme dice?
That is easy, it is exactly 16.66666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666667%
of the time.I would have written 16 2/3% but I like to envision a vinculum?
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This question you just asked tells me you didn’t understand half of what I tried to say…
Sorry Gamerman, I was in a rush when I looked through your posts. Good responses though to my semi coherent message. :lol:
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I’m glad you liked the responses - it was fun to think about
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This thread is just for fun, and has no bearing on League regular season or playoff play.
These rankings are unofficial, and subjective.…
To reiterate, this ranking thread is for fun, and nothing else. Enjoy.
This is a quote of the first post on this thread.
We have a lot of “newer” players to the site who are enjoying league play of the 2nd edition Global 1940 game. These are indeed good and exciting times to be an A&A player.
Some of these newcomers are understandably a bit confused about this particular thread.
Please read the first two posts of this thread if you haven’t already. :-)
It has been suggested that I add this fact to the spreadsheet itself. This is a brilliant suggestion, and that’s exactly what I’ll do.
Happy gaming, and don’t forget about AA50 :-)
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Now, speaking of disappearing opponents, it’s time to ask about the games that I have highlighted in orange.
You see, in the past I highlighted games that were in progress. Well, no one has ever posted a result for these games. Maybe both players disappeared! Does anyone know the status of these games? (Many of these were started a few months ago, but would have carried into the 2013 season because they were started somewhat late in the 2012 season)Odonis v. Wheatbeer
Most Holy v. Wheatbeer
Most Holy v. Zhukov
Wheatbeer v. Zhukov
Kabloom v. ZhukovHmm… I see a pattern.
Did we lose Wheatbeer, Most Holy, and Zhukov, at least for several months? -
I can’t look at it until I get home, but I felt I had a better position having won in sea zones 110, 111, and 106 only losing 2 subs on G1 then on G2 Germany sank the rest of the Royal Navy in the Mediterranean losing only 2 fighters (this was set up by Italy taking territory for Germans to land) … China lost their fighter but did get to build artillery on turn 1… but like you said it was only round 2 anything could happen from there on, Japan was barely even involved in the war yet.
If you think you had, say, a 60%+ chance of winning, I want to count this result. Just let me know.
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