G40 League House Rule project

[gamerman01]

Updated

2012 League standings.xls

[gamerman01]

Updated

2012 League standings.xls

[gamerman01]

Test

#1 Yoshi               7-0 100% 13 1.86
#2 Tyzoq               7-0 100% 11 1.57
#3 Darth Maximus 10-2 83% 14 1.17
#4 Gamerman01 5-1 83% 6 1.00
#5 Dizz               3-1 75% 4 1.00
#6 CdnRanger 2-1 67% 2 0.67
#7 SouL        6-2 75% 5 0.63
#8 JWW        8-4 67% 6 0.50
#9 Blood & Guts 15-9 63% 4 0.17
#10 U-505      3-3 50% -1 -0.17
#11 BoldFresh 4-7 36% -3 -0.27
#12 LuckyLindy 4-9 31% -6 -0.46
#13 dJensen               5-9 36% -7 -0.50
#14 Billy        3-11 21% -14 -1.00
Gargantua 0-1 0% -1 -1.00
Battling Maxo 0-1 0% -1 -1.00
#15 Mojo      1-2 33% -3 -1.00
#16 Amon Sul 1-4 20% -6 -1.20
#17 Nix          1-3 25% -6 -1.50
#18 cts17      0-3 0% -6 -2.00
Zhukov44 0-1 0% -2 -2.00
Cmdr Jennifer 0-1 0% -2 -2.00
#19 Botider               0-3 0% -7 -2.33
#20 Desert Journalist 0-6 0% -15 -2.50
Karl7        0-1 0% -3 -3.00

[gamerman01]

Updated

2012 League standings.xls

[gamerman01]

Updated

The Axis have been extremely successful in the 2012 league.  With an average bid of 8-9, the Axis are 56-27, a .675 win pct.

Major League Baseball finishes the regular season tomorrow.  Here are the records of the division leaders:
New York Yankees - .584
Baltimore Orioles - .578
Detroit Tigers - .540
Texas Rangers - .581
Oakland Athletics - .575
Washington Nationals - .602
Cincinnati Reds - .602
San Francisco Giants - .581

This is how big the Axis advantage in 1941 is.  Even giving away an 8-9 bid of the Allies’ choice, you have a better chance of winning with the Axis than the New York Yankees have against the Toronto Blue Jays (.447).

It’s riskier to bet on the Atlanta Braves (.578) beating the Chicago Cubs (.373) (lost 9 out of last 10) than to count on the Axis (.675) beating the Allies (.325) with an 8-9 bid in the 1941 scenario.
That’s right.  The Axis are better than the Yankees, better than the WS loser Rangers, better than the Braves, better than the World Series champion Cardinals.  The Allies are worse than the Cubs.  Let me say that again.

The Allies are WORSE THAN CUBBIE BLUE!  Just like the Cubs should be spotted a couple of runs each game and play all of their games at home to have a fighting chance, the Allies need more than 8 or 9 for a fair fight, folks!  A lot more!  :-)

Cheers

2012 League standings.xls

[666]

Or it takes a bit more skill & a strong plan to properly play & win as the allies? I am sure, well not that sure  :-D, that Yoshi, Tyzoq & Darth have played the allies this year? Their combined records is 24-2. Their allied win record must also be quite good, no?

[gamerman01]

@JWW:

Or it takes a bit more skill & a strong plan to properly play & win as the allies? I am sure, well not that sure  :-D, that Yoshi, Tyzoq & Darth have played the allies this year? Their combined records is 24-2. Their allied win record must also be quite good, no?

Which means everyone else’s is horrible, because they no doubt have an inordinate number of the allied wins, yes.

In other words, when the allies DO win, it’s probably often because the Allied player has more skill and/or experience than the Axis player!

Shall I count the number of times the Allies have won, when the Allied player is ranked lower in my rankings than the Axis player?  Now that would be interesting!

[gamerman01]

@JWW:

Or it takes a bit more skill & a strong plan to properly play & win as the allies?

That’s my point.  You have to be better than your opponent (or luckier, of course) to win with the allies with 8 or 9.  Hence, you are handicapped with a bid of 8 or 9.
What I’m saying is quite simple, JWW.  If you take the Allies with 8 or 9, you’re betting the Cubs can beat the Yankees this time.  (Or that you’re a lot better than your opponent)

But what I suspect is people are still ignorant or in denial that a fair fight requires a higher Allied bid.  Much higher.

[gamerman01]

Analysis complete.  This is amazing.  Thanks JWW for inspiring the research.

[gamerman01]

You can study the data yourself.  I have added it to the far right of the results matrix.  Included is a comment in each cell you can hover over to see which players were involved in the Allied/Axis wins/losses.

Here are my observations, generally moving down the standings from top to bottom:
Several allied wins were due to OBG quitting in the middle of several games.  He was Axis in all of them.

Tyzoq has an impressive 7-0 record, but…… 6 of the wins are with the Axis.  Not as impressive now.  :-) (I don’t know Tyzoq and have never played him.  But just an observation)

Darth does have wins with the Allies.  Two.  One against me where he got very good luck  :-)
Darth is 8-2 with the Axis.  He lost to OBG and… Yoshi.

I beat LL with a bid of 19 (but it was close - although I had poor luck in the early going) and Maxo with a bid of 21.  Both of my wins with Allies were against the #14 player, although I did have small bids.

SouL is 6-1 with Axis.  1-1 with Allies.  One of those allied wins against #14 player.

And you, JWW.  You are 7-0 with the Axis and 2-4 with your precious +9 bid with the Allies.  Dude, if you had never taken the Allies, you would probably be #1 in the league right now  :lol:

[gamerman01]

I would argue a big reason DM is in the top 4 is because he’s riding the Axis.  Just like I did in 2011.  I only had the Allies once.  Probably has a lot to do with my success (although I did win with them in the championship game)

OBG had a dominant record with the Axis before his meltdown.  Also, OBG owns an impressive 6-2 record with the Allies.  Let’s see, who did he beat…
#14, #13, #17, #3, #14, #19.  Yeah, not so impressive there either now.  #3 was Darth - see first sentence above  :-)

Boldfresh and Lucky!  Boys, we all know you’re better than your record shows.  Well guess what.  Your biggest sin, even bigger than having bad dice, was choosing the disadvantaged side.

Bold is a perfect 2-0 with the Axis.  He is a miserable 2-7 with the Allies, partly because he bravely picked matches with Yoshi and then got diced to boot.  Looking over Bold’s losses with the Allies - most of the names are good players.
And Lucky is a respectable 3-3 with the Axis, but… bravely or foolishly took the Allies too many times.  A 1-7 record with the Allies, but ALL against top players!  We certainly can’t accuse Bold or Lucky of padding stats.  These boys took the Allies a lot and they played stiff competition and… well, the record shows it.  :-)

[gamerman01]

Here’s another interesting stat!
dJensen is 4-1 with the Axis, and 0-9 with the Allies!

EB is 3-7 with the Axis, 0-4 with Allies

And TDJ…. don’t know him either but maybe you should throw your nets on the other side of the boat.
Never played as Axis, 0-6 with Allies.  You’d probably have better luck with the other team, man.

[gamerman01]

Here’s the spreadsheet.

What do YOU think?

2012 League standings.xls

[boldfresh]

Some brilliant commentary, had me smiling throughout!  You are right on point sir…  Allied bid should be 12 at least.  I have recently enjoyed fighting for the underdogs and i have paid the price!

Now with all the aa50 knowledge it is onward and upward to the new frontier of tripleA global, a whole new world to explore!  :-)  of course cow already has it all figured out but for the rest of us i mean…

[gamerman01]

Thank you - that’s what I was hoping to hear

If you ever need a partner for Global1940 on battlemap let me know  :wink:

[boldfresh]

@Gamerman01:

Thank you - that’s what I was hoping to hear

If you ever need a partner for Global1940 on battlemap let me know  :wink:

hmmm, you don’t see tripleA as the future of Global?  I don’t see consistently having the time to play a Battlemap game on this scale.  :|

[gamerman01]

TripleA probably is the future - I didn’t mean that.  It’s just not my future

There is insignificantly more typing for battlemap than in AA50.  I don’t even notice it.  I spend waaaay more time trying to figure out what to buy and what to do than typing.  But I guess we’re getting off topic.  You can PM me if there is any more discussion…  I don’t want people to miss the findings about Axis v. Allies I made below…  thanks

[Yoshi]

I would add one point to your comments : do people know how to use the bid efficiently ?

When you speak of your 19 and 21 bid for instance, it was including expensive units like a fgt in Buryatia (just memories, I might be wrong). Imagine 1inf in Egypt, and 5 or 6 units on the russian - german front… suddenly Germany has to worry !

As I do not want to play always the same side, I started bidding higher. At this time, the bid (in my games) usually finishes between 9 and 11. I think that if you reach 14 or more, the axis player will need some new strategy to have a chance.

Since I arrived on this forum, I believe that the axis play improved. The allied one too, but not so much. So at this date, yes, allies need a bid help.

I remember playing the allies with a 0 bid on my first games here, including league games in 2010. I would not try that anymore. That makes me believe that the axis play improved.

I stop here, teaching is waiting…

Yoshi

[gamerman01]

How good to hear from the great Yoshi on the topic

I am not saying 19-21 bid is the appropriate amount.
I am saying that 9 is definitely not enough.

I bid 11 for the league championship and won largely because of bad round 1 Axis dice.
I suspect that 12-15 is the appropriate bid for 50/50 success.  I hear other very experienced players (Darth, Bold) saying the same.
I think most of us are quite a ways down the “learning curve” on AA50 for Axis or Allies either one.  I think the 2012 league results are very telling.
And I think you, Yoshi, need to ignore your personal experience because you mow down anything in your path no matter what bid there is.  You destroyed Bold twice and djensen with Axis - 2 times with 11 bids.  You are 4-0 with Allies.  After about 5 of your very short games, you admitted that dice were very much on your side.  :-)

All I’m saying is, you would need to play against yourself several times to find what the appropriate bid is.

But we have a lot of data here from the 2012 league, and it’s pretty clear that if 2 players have comparable skills and experience, the Axis player will almost always win with a bid below 10.  And I am just marvelling at the fact that players not named Yoshi, will again and again accept the Allies at 8 or 9 and lose, lose, lose  :lol:

Have a great day

[Yoshi]

I’ve been reading this thread since the beginning, and downloaded your ranking a few times ;)

There are usefull informations inside :) For an official ranking, the definition of the tiers would need some rules and not being subjective, but such a rule dos not look obvious, and as this is just a FYI ranking, this is imho perfectly fine.

What would you say about OBG score with the allies otherwise ? Looks like a good one, and he is not Yoshi :p

Anyway, what I wanted to add this morning : there are some long term allied strategies that I saw in LL (aka Lucky Lindy) games that I believe to be very interesting. And I did not see them outside from LL’s game. I dunno if this has an impact because the strategy is not common, thus induces a surprise factor that is better than the strategy itself or because this is really something tough to counter. But this would be interesting to see what it could lead to in the future.

AA50 induces quite often long games that we rarely saw in Revised (up to my knowledge). If there is no big cap between two players, you can easily go to 15 rounds or more before having a difference that will call the game. Difficult to define a strategy that will go for so long… and usually, this is the allied work to define the way the game will go. Axis just need to defend and adapt. Much more easier.

I agree that axis has an advantage, and currently a strong one. But you can already do a lot with a 9-11 bid. The highest is the bid, specially a russian ground bid, the safer the axis need to be at the beggining. But if they are too safe, an agressive allied play might take the win.

My experience of the game tells me that everything can change on some tiny details for two opponents of the same level. Some minor choices can change a win into a loss after a couple of turns (if the difference was not too big at this time of course). And usually, such details are choices that are almost unique each time (because of the previous choices / dices). Try to get a reliable strategy from that…