G40 League House Rule project

[boldfresh]

@Gamerman01:

Updated

Bids have averaged 8 or 9 IPC’s in both 2012 league and 2011 tournament play.

Axis win percentage is 68.4% in the 2011 tournament (13-6)
Axis win percentage is 69.2% in the 2012 league so far (27-12)

That’s 58 game results, and the Axis are consistently winning more than 2 out of 3 games.  I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.  Just factually summarizing the stats for ya

my gut feeling is we will see this normalize closer to 55-60 percent over the rest of this year and the bid average creep up to 9-10.  looking like the right bid is somewhere between 10-12 for evenly matched players.

[gamerman01]

Yes…  thanks for the feedback

I agree that it takes at least 10 or 11 for evenly matched players.  I don’t go lower than 11 anymore unless I feel like taking the Allies and I think that I will still win (that is if I think I’m better than my opponent).  If I am starting the bidding, I’m finding myself starting at 12 or 11 to deny my opponent that bid, and if he takes 11 or 10 I will let him have it.

It’s very interesting to keep track of Axis vs. Allies as the results come in, and it will be interesting to see what the future holds.  It takes dozens of results to even think about drawing any conclusions, so I’m eager to see what the next couple dozen results show.

[gamerman01]

Updated with current matches all highlighted in orange

You can see who is playing who (unfinished games) at a glance

2012 League standings.xls

[gamerman01]

Updated

2012 League standings.xls

[gamerman01]

Updated

2012 League standings.xls

[souL]

If the bomber were disallowed as a bid–I wouldn’t be shocked to see it get up to between 12-14.

[gamerman01]

@souL:

If the bomber were disallowed as a bid–I wouldn’t be shocked to see it get up to between 12-14.Â

I actually don’t mind giving up a bomber bid.  I know about the bomber on Bry to Z51 gimmick, but that has a pretty good chance of failing, too.  If someone has a bid under 15 and they take a bomber, that means no units to Egypt or anywhere else, too.  I think multiple lower cost units in places that are critical and hard to get to are a better bang for your bucks.  I don’t want to get into a big discussion about bids here, though - there are other threads for that….  Just couldn’t resist replying on the bomber bid  :-)
Stats - Bomber vs. destroyer and 2 transports - 57% chance of sinking everything
28.6% chance of sinking destroyer only, and losing the bomber
14.3% chance of sinking NOTHING and losing the bomber

[gamerman01]

Updated with 3 more results

Axis wins in Tournament championship game, giving Axis a 70% winning percentage in the 2011 tournament, with one game to play.

2012 League standings.xls

[gamerman01]

2 more results
2 more Axis wins
Axis are at .696 in league and .700 in tournament play, and that’s with bids

Apparently most people are bidding too low!  Don’t be a hero!  The Allies need help!

2012 League standings.xls

[boldfresh]

to get the allies against mojo i had to go to -1  :-D

[gamerman01]

I know what you mean.
To get Billy to play me I had to agree to 4 as Allies or 15 as Axis

I think with 65+ results these things would even out….  Sometimes better players take Axis, sometimes Allies…
But it is interesting the Axis are persistently winning 70% of games with average bids of 8-9.

[gamerman01]

@Gamerman01:

To get Billy to play me I had to agree to 4 as Allies or 15 as Axis

And he proceeded to lose 6 fighter planes on G1 and J1 - just another example of how first round dice is much, much more deciding than any puny little bid.

[boldfresh]

@Gamerman01:

@Gamerman01:

To get Billy to play me I had to agree to 4 as Allies or 15 as Axis

And he proceeded to lose 6 fighter planes on G1 and J1 - just another example of how first round dice is much, much more deciding than any puny little bid.

he crushed me with dice to write home about.  ALL GAME LONG

[gamerman01]

Yeah, I saw you guys saying that when looking up your game to get the bid from it.

[gamerman01]

Updated

2012 League standings.xls

[DarthMaximus]

@Gamerman01:

@souL:

If the bomber were disallowed as a bid–I wouldn’t be shocked to see it get up to between 12-14.�� �

I actually don’t mind giving up a bomber bid.� � I know about the bomber on Bry to Z51 gimmick, but that has a pretty good chance of failing, too.� � If someone has a bid under 15 and they take a bomber, that means no units to Egypt or anywhere else, too.� � I think multiple lower cost units in places that are critical and hard to get to are a better bang for your bucks.� � I don’t want to get into a big discussion about bids here, though - there are other threads for that….� � Just couldn’t resist replying on the bomber bid� � :-)
Stats - Bomber vs. destroyer and 2 transports - 57% chance of sinking everything
28.6% chance of sinking destroyer only, and losing the bomber
14.3% chance of sinking NOTHING and losing the bomber

I’d love to discuss this (bids in general). Not sure if another thread in AA50 would be worth it???

I’d agree that bids for the Allies have been too low.  And while a bomber in Bry could be initally scary.  I have no doubt placing 3-4 units is better.

G1 can be deadly!  I’ve moved to the much more agressive G1 (regardless of opponent) of hitting Sz 6, Sz 2, Sz 9, and Sz 12 if there are no Russian units bid.  It can be crippling to the Allies.  Germany just has free range to go hard after Moscow if they sink both trns.  At that point Japan can just be extremely conservative and simply stay alive.

And even a failure in Sz 2 or 9 (or both) can be overcome which makes it worth the risk IMO.

[gamerman01]

Yeah, if you set up the thread, just let me know and/or provide a link - that is a great subject for a thread

[DarthMaximus]

Thread started.

I started with bomber bids, but all bid topics are open.

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=27499.0

[gamerman01]

Rankings updated

2012 League standings.xls

[gamerman01]

Updated

Axis v. Allies not updated since OBG’s result was after only 7 rounds and TUV was comparable.  cts17 pulled one of his disappearing acts and OBG rightfully called it early

Note that OBG was Axis  :-)

2012 League standings.xls