Part 1
Outline
Goals:
Conditions/Requirements
Why Should I Attack West Russia on G1?
Very good question. Let’s assume you’ve calculated some 80% odds of success but you’re wondering if there’s a more logical reason to sacrifice the Luftwaffe other than to have a risky and fast game. Here are 2 answers for it: it gives Germany numerical superiority over the Soviets and keeps the strategic initiative on the Axis side.
German Superiority
Here’s the starting forces of both powers that can reach the Eastern front (defined as the territories from E. Eur/Balkans to Russia/Caucasus) during combat/non-combat on round 1:
This gives Germany a starting ground advantage in TUV of 1.36:1, or a 1/3 advantage. However, this advantage is not quite as it seems since its forces are dispersed throughout several territories and the Soviets can build new units on the theatre, while all new German builds have to travel from Germany/S. Europe.
Also, during the opening round the Soviets should reduce this advantage up to 12 IPCs - on a Ukraine + West Russia attack the Soviets should kill 6 INF, 2 ART, 2 ARM (36 IPC) while losing 6 INF, 1 ART, 1-2 ARM (27-32 IPC) and at the end the Soviets will add 24 IPCs worth of new builds, which means that Germany will face instead a situation of a 1:1 on the Eastern front at the start of G1, with 73 IPC to the USSR’s 74-79.
If both Germany/USSR switch to swapping Karelia/Belo/WRus, the Soviets will build about 26-29 IPCs worth of income on round 2, while Germany usually sending 7-11 IPCs out of their G1 build of 40 to Africa/W. Eur and you have a stalemate regarding the relative ground strength of both powers at the end of round 2. The usual way for the Axis to break this stalemate is to advance a German stack into Karelia/Ukraine and secure it with Japanese fighters.
However, if Germany destroys the West Russia stack while retake the other territories lost to the Soviets on SU1, then this situation changes. Soviet ground losses climb up to 64 IPCs while Germans will lose 41 IPCs, plus planes. Which drastically changes the ground situation on the theatre, since now Germany will have 61 or slightly less IPCs while the Red Army, even with the new builds will only have around 44. With a G1 buy of 5 INF, 5 ARM the German TUV can go up to 84 IPC because the newly built armor can reach Ukraine/Karelia, giving it a 2:1 ratio for the Germans at the start of round 2, even better than the starting 1.36.
All of this above is the best case scenario for… the Soviets - it assumes they only built ground units on R1 and sent the 6 INF on Evenki/Novo/Kazakh towards Russia/Caucasus, otherwise the Soviet TUV would be even lower. It also doesn’t take into account other potential German moves such as taking Caucasus on G1, or using the transports on SZ5/14 to bring as many INF units as possible from W. Eur/S. Eur/Libya to the Eastern front, so the advantage could go higher (or lower, always remember that dice can change everything).
Regarding income, Germany will have earned 42 (46 with Caucasus) IPCs to the Soviet Union’s 26-29 on the first round. But on round 2 the USSR will only be able to retake WRus and Caucasus/Ukraine, so at the best it will earn 27 IPCs, assuming it has control of West Russia, Ukraine and Buryatia. Prevent the Soviets from getting Ukraine and Buryatia’s IPCs and the Axis ensure that Germany is earning twice as the USSR at the end of round 2. Which roughly means that Germany can match Soviet production AND deploy it quickly to the Eastern front by building 5 ARM each round, plus whatever spare infantry it can find.
But if the attack on West Russia suffers from ‘catastrophic dice failure’ and Germany is unable to destroy the stack, then since it’s the beginning of the game, you can always concede and start again. Having odds of 80-90% isn’t enough on ensure victory with regular dice - one thing are odds, the other actual dice results.
Axis Strategic Initiative
A German takeover of West Russia on R1 forces the Soviets to choose between 2 options - retake West Russia or abandon the Caucasus. If the Axis keeps the pressure on WRus then most of Russia’s army will have to be employed to trade that territory with the Germans and be destroyed on the exchange. The only way for the USSR to recover its balance is to stack West Russia again against a German attack.
But can it? On the scenario described ahead, the Red Army will start round 2 with 5 INF, 1 ARM on Russia and 3 INF, 3 ARM on Caucasus and single German units on WRus and Ukraine. If it sends 2 INF to Ukraine and the rest for West Russia then at a best case scenario it will have 6 INF and 4 ARM defending it. But the Germans should have 6 INF, 2 ARM on Karelia and 3 ARM on E. Eur that can hit WRus, plus the remaining Luftwaffe. And if that Soviet stack on WRus is gone at round 2, all that Russia has now to defend itself is new builds from round 3 onwards, unless it withdrew completely the Far East infantry.
Even if the USSR limits itself to sending a few INF to retake West Russia it will still be a drain on Soviet resources and most of their army will be tied up on the defense of Caucasus. Even if its preventing the fall of Caucasus to the Axis, both Germany and Japan will keep the initiative on Europe and Asia as long as they can maintain the pressure on a beaten Soviet Union.
The drawbacks are that it gives the Allies freedom of action on both the Atlantic and the Pacific, and Germany reduces its attention on Africa and allows the UK the ability to choose the direction it wants to use its forces on Asia and Africa, including supporting a KFJ. In other words, it increases the Allies’ opportunities but nearly all of those new options will not deflect Germany from Russia. The Allies now need to decide on either sending everything to stop the Germans on Europe or trying a gamble of their own - setting up a Kill Japan First strategy.
The difference between both the Axis and the Allied gambles are that Germany’s decision will impact the rest of the game immediately, with a fair chance that it will be on the Axis favor. But an Allied KFJ strategy will completely change the rest of the game and the odds are about even or less - any UK moves against Japan will be limited and will give some warning to Japan.
The main factor for Germany’s decision to attack or not is the situation at the end of SU1 - that will be covered on the 2nd Part.
Part Two - The Opening Soviet Round
The most likely scenarios of territories being attacked by the USSR on round 1 will be listed below. The first ones are usually the best to employ this strat. The first set of brackets indicate the odds for the Soviets to win ALL of these battles. Any unexpected Soviet defeats on the territories of WRus, Belo and Ukr will strongly benefit this strategy. Afterwards it examines the situation on West Russia on the detail: first is the number of Soviet attackers, then the average losses and the available German units that can attack WRus. Finally, and the most important, the 3 most probable outcomes (around 60% of all rolls) regarding the number of Soviet units left on WRus and the German odds for each outcome with all the German units that can reach the territory. All the odds are calculated with the Soviet AA Gun, but the gun isn’t counted for the total of Soviet units.
The second deciding factor are the actual combat results. If Germany kills less units than the average while defending on SU1 then most likely you should choose another strat. If it kills more than average then Germany can not use all of its airforce on the WRus attack, liberating them for other secondary targets (more on that later). Above all, you should ALWAYS calculate the results by yourself to check before attacking since the list below can’t possibly cover all possible situations.
The last issue to look for is the type of dice that is being used, regular or Low Luck (LL). LL will restrict the Soviet combat losses and can possibly remove some options to attack West Russia but at the same time it removes the uncertainty regarding the AA Gun by limiting the planes losses to 1, making it less of a gamble. Regular dice offers the possibility of a bigger range of results during combat on SU1 but it also increases the uncertainty regarding the AA shots at the start of the G1 attack on West Russia.
1) West Russia, Ukraine and Norway (35%/56%)
Soviet Attack on WRus: 6 INF, 1 ART
SU1 Average Soviet losses: 3-5 INF
G1 WRus German attack force: (3 INF, 1 ARM, 4 FTR, 1 BMR)
West Russia Odds:
2) West Russia and Norway (86%/100%)
Soviet Attack: 9 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM
SU1 Losses: 2-3 INF
G1 Attack: 16 units (6 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM, 5 FTR, 1 BMR)
3) West Russia and Belorussia (96%/100%)
Soviet Attack: 9 INF, 2 ART, 4 ARM
SU1 Losses: 2 INF
G1 Attack: 14 units (3 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM, 6 FTR, 1 BMR)
4) West Russia and Ukraine (90%/100%)
Soviet Attack: see below
SU1 Losses: 3 INF
G1 attack force: 11 units (3 INF, 1 ARM, 5 FTR, 1 BMR)
a) Russia attacks with 9 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM
5) West Russia, Ukraine and Belorussia (57%/90%)
Soviet Attack: 6 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM
SU1 Losses: 3-4 INF
G1 attack force: 7 units (1 ARM, 5 FTR, 1 BMR)
6) West Russia (100%/100%)
Soviet Attack: 12 INF, 2 ART, 4 ARM
SU1 Losses: 2 INF
G1 attack force: (6 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM, 6 FTR, 1 BMR)
The Soviet Buy & Non-Combat Move
On the previous part it is mentioned that another important factor is the initial Soviet purchase. Any planes or SUBs bought by the Soviets will even drop lower the TUV difference, the same happening with Russia moving the any/all 6 INF from Kazakh/Novo/Evenki to somewhere else other than Russia/Caucasus. Russia moving the 6 INF on Buryatia is also an enticement since they usually can be destroyed by Japan on J1, even if the UK lands a fighter there.
Round 1 - Germany
Purchases
Combat/Non-Combat Movement
Eastern Front
As for secondary objectives they depends on how much forces can be spared from the main attack on West Russia to distract the UK from assisting the USSR by having to sink the German Med fleet and getting rid of the German units on Africa. The longer those forces are kept alive the better, but the objective is the Soviet Union - they are considered expendable from the beginning of the game.
SZ14 Fleet
SZ8 SUB
Other Moves
Round 1 - Japan
Purchases
Combat Moves
All other attacks (SZ52) are secondary to those 2 ones, but Japan should not leave any naval units within range of the Allies, specially the UK. Usually the carrier off the Carolines joins the rest of the fleet at SZ60, along with 2 FTRs. It is more important to ignore the UK if they decided to go after Borneo or Indochina - those are distractions meant for Japan to divert its attention from Buryatia and they also divert units away from Africa/Middle East to Germany’s benefit.
Finally Part 3 will focus on Allied responses to this strat.
Hobbes - great strategy discussion once again.
Why is it named Case Blue :? well nevermind
Basically what you are saying is that Germany can (almost regardsless of R1 opening) take WR, if G is willing to invest enough?
You are also saying that Russia has to make a decent buy like 5 inf art arm or 3 inf, 3 arm in order to get enough boots on the ground and be able to retake territories, right?
By doing this Germany is also choosing not to do several things, and will most likely loose Africa and allow a UK navy to establish fast (depending on the loss of G air).
As I see it Germany only have ~1 round of purchases to send east along with the starting units, before all focus must be on defending UK/US invasions.
Do you think the game is “off balance” favoring axis with this aggressive German opening?
Do you find this axis strategy superior to the fortress of Europe or more as a nice second option, in case of bad allied play/dice?
Hobbes - great strategy discussion once again.
Why is it named Case Blue :? well nevermind
Case Blue was the name of the German strategic plan to conquer the Caucasus on 1942 :)
Basically what you are saying is that Germany can (almost regardsless of R1 opening) take WR, if G is willing to invest enough?
You are also saying that Russia has to make a decent buy like 5 inf art arm or 3 inf, 3 arm in order to get enough boots on the ground and be able to retake territories, right?
Regarding West Russia, yes, although it is a hard decision to make it really depends on the number of units left there. And Russia definitely needs as many ground units as possible - if Germany keeps trading West Russia with Russia then one side will eventually ran out of units.
By doing this Germany is also choosing not to do several things, and will most likely loose Africa and allow a UK navy to establish fast (depending on the loss of G air).
As I see it Germany only have ~1 round of purchases to send east along with the starting units, before all focus must be on defending UK/US invasions.
Possibly 2 rounds. Although another thing I’ve been testing is also to clear W. Eur. of units during the 1st round, which allows for an Allied landing on UK1.
Do you think the game is “off balance” favoring axis with this aggressive German opening?
Do you find this axis strategy superior to the fortress of Europe or more as a nice second option, in case of bad allied play/dice?
This opening already exists on Revised, where there was a strategy that started with putting all of Germany’s bid into Ukraine/Belo/WR/E.Eur and then hitting WRus before the Allies could respond. I think the main issue when choosing is the conditions I listed above. I don’t know yet if it is superior to Fortress Europe, but they are different conceptions.
Part 3 - The Allied Response (work in progress)
United Kingdom
US: Going Atlantic, Pacific or both?
Soviet Union
If Fortress Europe is the anti-KGF strat, Case Blue sure looks like the anti-KJF strat.
If Fortress Europe is the anti-KGF strat, Case Blue sure looks like the anti-KJF strat.
It actually came out of recent experience playing online at GTO - I’ve never seen so many people trying KJF or a mix of both or just going overboard with the Russians and getting a sub and a fighter on the initial buy. If the Allied player still decides to go KJF after the German round then it’s almost a sure win, although there are veteran players on GTO forums who claim that Russia can fall as long as the US holds the Pacific islands… I’m still trying to prove/disprove that hypothesis.
2nd trial in progress…
Russia bought 1 bomber, attacked Belo and WR, 12 units left in WR, Caucasus abandoned, 4 INF sent to Sinkiang. Entire Luftwaffe used on WRus at the expense of 3 fighters (Low Luck).
UK counters by landing on Archangel and build a South Africa IC. Japan moves fleet to SZ34, within range of the UK but just want I want him to try…
US goes Atlantic… this should be interesting…
Russia attacks WRus, Caucasus, Buryatia and China(!)
Germany sinks Allied fleet off SZ4, takes Caucasus, WRus, Archangel and Egypt. Russia is reduced to 6 INF, 2 ARM and the planes.
A great piece of work. I look forward to hearing further updates and trials in action!
Well game over, great game. The Allies built an IC on Sinkiang and managed to held it until round 4 or 5 until they were forced to pull back from the Japanese. The Germans took a hold of Caucasus on round 4 and never released it afterwards.
The SA IC didn’t work, neither the US strat of sending troops through Africa. With Germans in control of Caucasus it blocked any attempt to advance. Interesting game though.
there are veteran players on GTO forums who claim that Russia can fall as long as the US holds the Pacific islands… I’m still trying to prove/disprove that hypothesis.
We make some assumptions, ending with Russia falling and US grabbing the Pacific islands. This has to be round five or six at least. So what do we know?
1. We know UK doesn’t have a particularly healthy navy reinforcement to Russia (or at least it shouldn’t), BECAUSE Russia fell. (If there are loads of UK troops ready to secure Moscow after Germany grabs Moscow for a single turn, then Russia didn’t really “fall”).
2. Probably Germany controls Africa.
3. US has at least two carriers, four fighters, and at least two destroyers in the islands south of Japan. Plus one or two transports, and controls certain 4 IPC islands.
Now here’s the key assumption that I think these GTO vets are making. I would guess they think the Japanese fleet is destroyed. If the Jap fleet is destroyed, then US has logistic advantage with amphibious assaults on territories, and probably US and UK can work together to harass European coast/Africa/finish Japan (not all of those, but enough to get a win)
But if the Japanese fleet is NOT destroyed - and it should not be, because Japan can always just run away - Germany can get into the mix. Then, I think Axis have the advantage.
@Bunnies:
there are veteran players on GTO forums who claim that Russia can fall as long as the US holds the Pacific islands… I’m still trying to prove/disprove that hypothesis.
We make some assumptions, ending with Russia falling and US grabbing the Pacific islands. This has to be round five or six at least. So what do we know?
1. We know UK doesn’t have a particularly healthy navy reinforcement to Russia (or at least it shouldn’t), BECAUSE Russia fell. (If there are loads of UK troops ready to secure Moscow after Germany grabs Moscow for a single turn, then Russia didn’t really “fall”).
2. Probably Germany controls Africa.
3. US has at least two carriers, four fighters, and at least two destroyers in the islands south of Japan. Plus one or two transports, and controls certain 4 IPC islands.
Now here’s the key assumption that I think these GTO vets are making. I would guess they think the Japanese fleet is destroyed. If the Jap fleet is destroyed, then US has logistic advantage with amphibious assaults on territories, and probably US and UK can work together to harass European coast/Africa/finish Japan (not all of those, but enough to get a win)
But if the Japanese fleet is NOT destroyed - and it should not be, because Japan can always just run away - Germany can get into the mix. Then, I think Axis have the advantage
Meh, even if the Japanese fleet is destroyed I’m still not convinced, I need to get beaten to change my mind. The more experience you have playing J on KFJ, the more you know how to harass the US fleet, even with Yamato rusting at the bottom of the ocean.
Probably the GTO vets are also assuming most of the Axis air is already dead too.
I’ve faced this strat today against me and I’m glad I realized how to do it because it was very, very, very close. The other player had it all figured out - too bad I also had :)
Russia rolls badly on WRus and loses 5 inf in total, while moving the 6 inf to Buryatia. G buys 8 armor and goes for it. Game got decided on round 3 - the Russians attacked the German stack on Ukraine with everything (didn’t even bother calc - if I lost that was it) and won while the Germans attacked Caucasus (I had moved everything with the UK from India and Africa - 6 inf, 1 arm and 4 fighters and lost. Japan meanwhile was building 2 fighters a turn, in no doubt to protect either WRus or Caucasus but it was pointless when Germany lost those battles.
Japan needed to go IC/tanks if Germany went G1 8 tank build.
So, Hobbes - you did West Russia/Norway open with Allies, did badly at West Russia, put 6 infantry at Buryatia, and put the UK India fighter on Buryatia on UK1? What happened with Anglo-Egypt?
I attacked WRus and Ukr with Russia. With the UK I sank the SZ16 (had brought the INF and ARM from Libya to Ukr), SZ59 and SZ5 fleets. I then pulled back everything towards Caucasus, even abandoning India to J - the Germans were getting ready to hit it heavy soon, and I think it saved my hide.
