Spring 1942 - Case Blue Axis Strategy

[Hobbes]

Part Two - The Opening Soviet Round

The most likely scenarios of territories being attacked by the USSR on round 1 will be listed below. The first ones are usually the best to employ this strat. The first set of brackets indicate the odds for the Soviets to win ALL of these battles. Any unexpected Soviet defeats on the territories of WRus, Belo and Ukr will strongly benefit this strategy. Afterwards it examines the situation on West Russia on the detail: first is the number of Soviet attackers, then the average losses and the available German units that can attack WRus. Finally, and the most important, the 3 most probable outcomes (around 60% of all rolls) regarding the number of Soviet units left on WRus and the German odds for each outcome with all the German units that can reach the territory. All the odds are calculated with the Soviet AA Gun, but the gun isn’t counted for the total of Soviet units.

The second deciding factor are the actual combat results. If Germany kills less units than the average while defending on SU1 then most likely you should choose another strat. If it kills more than average then Germany can not use all of its airforce on the WRus attack, liberating them for other secondary targets (more on that later). Above all, you should ALWAYS calculate the results by yourself to check before attacking since the list below can’t possibly cover all possible situations.

The last issue to look for is the type of dice that is being used, regular or Low Luck (LL). LL will restrict the Soviet combat losses and can possibly remove some options to attack West Russia but at the same time it removes the uncertainty regarding the AA Gun by limiting the planes losses to 1, making it less of a gamble. Regular dice offers the possibility of a bigger range of results during combat on SU1 but it also increases the uncertainty regarding the AA shots at the start of the G1 attack on West Russia.

1) West Russia, Ukraine and Norway (35%/56%)
Soviet Attack on WRus: 6 INF, 1 ART
SU1 Average Soviet losses: 3-5 INF
G1 WRus German attack force: (3 INF, 1 ARM, 4 FTR, 1 BMR)
West Russia Odds:

• 4 R units - 100%/100%
• 3 R units - 100%/100%
• 2 R units - 100%/100%
• This is one of the worst openings that the USSR can make because of the odds and it will leave all of its starting forces dispersed and vulnerable to German counterattacks.
• Usually this attack is rare to happen, unless your opponent decides to try something new.

2) West Russia and Norway (86%/100%)
Soviet Attack: 9 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM
SU1 Losses: 2-3 INF
G1 Attack: 16 units (6 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM, 5 FTR, 1 BMR)

• 13 R units - 87%/100%
• 12 R units - 94%/100%
• 11 R units - 99%/100%
• This is the 2nd best choice for Germany, with the possible bonus of killing a Soviet FTR on Karelia.
• Usually this opening is made by the Soviet player with the propose of saving the Allied fleet on SZ2 by killing the German FTR on Norway.

3) West Russia and Belorussia (96%/100%)
Soviet Attack: 9 INF, 2 ART, 4 ARM
SU1 Losses: 2 INF
G1 Attack: 14 units (3 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM, 6 FTR, 1 BMR)

• 14 R units - 66%/84%
• 13 R units - 75%/97%
• 12 R units - 86%/100%
• Usually the USSR will either bring less units than mentioned above to defend Caucasus or leave only 1-2 INF on Caucasus.
• On both cases you should definitely hit WRus if there’s 12 or less units AND take Caucasus with an amphibious landing.
• With regular dice, it will definitely depend on the results.

4) West Russia and Ukraine (90%/100%)
Soviet Attack: see below
SU1 Losses: 3 INF
G1 attack force: 11 units (3 INF, 1 ARM, 5 FTR, 1 BMR)
a) Russia attacks with 9 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM

• 9 R units - 70%/97%
• 8 R units - 82%/100%
• 7 R units - 91%/100%
  b) Russia attacks with 9 INF, 1 ART, 2 ARM
• 10 R units - 45%/37%
• 9 R units - 62%/84%
• 8 R units - 80%/N/A
• Option b) is safer for the Soviets but there are still some opportunities, depending on SU1 losses and dice. This option is very usual to see with LL dice.

5) West Russia, Ukraine and Belorussia (57%/90%)
Soviet Attack: 6 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM
SU1 Losses: 3-4 INF
G1 attack force: 7 units (1 ARM, 5 FTR, 1 BMR)

• 6 R units - 73%/96%
• 5 R units - 87%/100%
• 4 R units - 95%/100%
• This option depends on dice: with regular dice, it’s almost suicide for the Soviets; with LL it can be a very good Soviet opening, since it clears all territories adjacent to WRus.
• When playing with LL Germany will have to sacrifice nearly all of the Luftwaffe, which can be too costly, unless the Soviet attack on Ukraine fails to conquer it, allowing the German ARM on the Balkans to reach West Russia.
• With regular dice, the odds are that something will go wrong in 1 of the attacks.

6) West Russia (100%/100%)
Soviet Attack: 12 INF, 2 ART, 4 ARM
SU1 Losses: 2 INF
G1 attack force: (6 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM, 6 FTR, 1 BMR)

• 17 R units - 46%/36%
• 16 R units - 58%/85%
• 15 R units - 82%/N/A
• This is the safest Soviet opening, since it allows them to mass all of their starting army on WRus.
• It also makes the Caucasus vulnerable to attack, if the Soviets leave only 8 units there (4 new builds, 2 INF from Kazakh, 2 FTRs), so the Soviets will either have to hold back some units, raising the odds for Germany, or retreat from Caucasus.

The Soviet Buy & Non-Combat Move

On the previous part it is mentioned that another important factor is the initial Soviet purchase. Any planes or SUBs bought by the Soviets will even drop lower the TUV difference, the same happening with Russia moving the any/all 6 INF from Kazakh/Novo/Evenki to somewhere else other than Russia/Caucasus. Russia moving the 6 INF on Buryatia is also an enticement since they usually can be destroyed by Japan on J1, even if the UK lands a fighter there.

Round 1 - Germany

Purchases

• 5 INF and 5 ARM. This ratio of infantry/armor should also be the same buy on round 2.
• Another possibility is the 8 ARM buy, for maximum pressure on Russia on round 3 - this purchase is common but it will leave Germany shorthanded on infantry against early Allied landings on Europe.

Combat/Non-Combat Movement

Eastern Front

• Attack West Russia and retake any other territories lost to the Soviets.

As for secondary objectives they depends on how much forces can be spared from the main attack on West Russia to distract the UK from assisting the USSR by having to sink the German Med fleet and getting rid of the German units on Africa. The longer those forces are kept alive the better, but the objective is the Soviet Union - they are considered expendable from the beginning of the game.

SZ14 Fleet

• Attack SZ13 and invade Gibraltar with 1 INF.
• Amphibious attack on Caucasus.
• Reinforce Libya/Ukraine on non-combat and/or attack the UK CA or DD with the German BB.
• Invade Trans-Jordan to prevent UK fleet to sail into the Med.
• Attack SZ15 and Egypt, if 1 FTR from Balkans/Ukraine can be spared.

SZ8 SUB

• Attack SZ1
• Attack SZ2 (if FTR + BMR available)

Other Moves

• Move the INF + ART from Algeria to Libya to attack Egypt on G2.

Round 1 - Japan

Purchases

• 1 DD and 3 TRN or 3 TRN, 1 ARM and 1 INF

Combat Moves

• Buryatia. The objective is to destroy the 6 Soviet INF, if they have been moved there. Japan can break a stack of 6 INF + 1 FTR on Buryatia with 1 BB, 1 CA, 4 FTRs, 1 BMR, 3 INF and 1 ARM. Very important - keep the armour alive, by sacrificing a fighter if necessary.
• China - to kill the US FTR

All other attacks (SZ52) are secondary to those 2 ones, but Japan should not leave any naval units within range of the Allies, specially the UK. Usually the carrier off the Carolines joins the rest of the fleet at SZ60, along with 2 FTRs. It is more important to ignore the UK if they decided to go after Borneo or Indochina - those are distractions meant for Japan to divert its attention from Buryatia and they also divert units away from Africa/Middle East to Germany’s benefit.

Finally Part 3 will focus on Allied responses to this strat.

[jiman79]

Hobbes - great strategy discussion once again.
Why is it named Case Blue :?  well nevermind

Basically what you are saying is that Germany can (almost regardsless of R1 opening) take WR, if G is willing to invest enough?
You are also saying that Russia has to make a decent buy like 5 inf art arm or 3 inf, 3 arm in order to get enough boots on the ground and be able to retake territories, right?

By doing this Germany is also choosing not to do several things, and will most likely loose Africa and allow a UK navy to establish fast (depending on the loss of G air).
As I see it Germany only have ~1 round of purchases to send east along with the starting units, before all focus must be on defending UK/US invasions.

Do you think the game is “off balance” favoring axis with this aggressive German opening?
Do you find this axis strategy superior to the fortress of Europe or more as a nice second option, in case of bad allied play/dice?

[Hobbes]

@jiman79:

Hobbes - great strategy discussion once again.
Why is it named Case Blue :?  well nevermind

Case Blue was the name of the German strategic plan to conquer the Caucasus on 1942 :)

Basically what you are saying is that Germany can (almost regardsless of R1 opening) take WR, if G is willing to invest enough?
You are also saying that Russia has to make a decent buy like 5 inf art arm or 3 inf, 3 arm in order to get enough boots on the ground and be able to retake territories, right?

Regarding West Russia, yes, although it is a hard decision to make it really depends on the number of units left there. And Russia definitely needs as many ground units as possible - if Germany keeps trading West Russia with Russia then one side will eventually ran out of units.

By doing this Germany is also choosing not to do several things, and will most likely loose Africa and allow a UK navy to establish fast (depending on the loss of G air).
As I see it Germany only have ~1 round of purchases to send east along with the starting units, before all focus must be on defending UK/US invasions.

Possibly 2 rounds. Although another thing I’ve been testing is also to clear W. Eur. of units during the 1st round, which allows for an Allied landing on UK1.

Do you think the game is “off balance” favoring axis with this aggressive German opening?
Do you find this axis strategy superior to the fortress of Europe or more as a nice second option, in case of bad allied play/dice?

This opening already exists on Revised, where there was a strategy that started with putting all of Germany’s bid into Ukraine/Belo/WR/E.Eur and then hitting WRus before the Allies could respond. I think the main issue when choosing is the conditions I listed above. I don’t know yet if it is superior to Fortress Europe, but they are different conceptions.

[Hobbes]

Part 3 - The Allied Response (work in progress)

United Kingdom

• The British simply have too many important targets to hit on UK1: German Baltic fleet, SZ59, SZs15/16, Egypt/Libya, Indochina/Borneo, Algeria, Norway and others. And other that invading Norway/W. Eur or sinking the Med fleet, the rest won’t really divert Germany from the USSR on G2.
• Bottom line, the UK can still clear Africa/Med, hit Japan hard on the Pacific or reinforce Caucasus, but will have to choose on UK1 and usually focus on 1 of those options.
• Landings on Norway take some pressure off the Soviets but will still take a while before the UK can land 8 units.
• Not clearing Africa still leaves Egypt vulnerable to a G2 capture - any option the UK chooses will benefit the Axis on another area.
• The UK has a total of 7 ground units on Africa/Asia that can reach Caucasus by UK2 and defend it against a German attack from G3 onwards. It can make the difference to prevent the loss of Caucasus but it will also leave India and Africa to the Axis.

US: Going Atlantic, Pacific or both?

• Now, at this point the US has some decisions to make. The Soviets were hit badly and the UK is busy on Africa and Asia but it will take another 2 rounds before they are able to land 8 units on Europe.
• But on the Pacific, Japan seems to be fully concentrated on the USSR, the SZ52 fleet may be alive and there even might be a large naval UK force on the Indian Ocean or Indochina/Borneo on UK hands. Sounds tempting for the US to try a Pacific strat or a mixture of both? And that’s exactly what the Axis needs from the Allies.
• If the Allies commit to holding Japan on the Pacific/Asia, those are all units that won’t be helping the Soviets against the Germans. Plus, the Japanese won’t have lost any capital ships and will have 8 ground units ready to land on round 2 and continue attacking land targets on Asia. With the exception of the starting units, the only reinforcements available would have to come with Russia, which is already in dire straits holding off the Germans, so the Japanese should be able to advance through Yakut/Sinkiang and put even more pressure on the Soviets on Novo/Kazakh.
• At sea, the US build-up of naval forces is too slow to really make a difference on the first rounds - the US can land units on Borneo/East Indies by round 3 but those ships will most likely be sunk afterwards and by round 4 Caucasus should have fallen to the Germans, which allows Japan starting dealing with the US.
• If the US goes Atlantic (which would be my option), then Japan simply switches its attention to Moscow, freeing up German units to deal with Allied landings on Europe. This also allows the US to prepare to land 8 ground units on round 3 on W. Europe, something that the Germans will have to worry about.

Soviet Union

[Advosan]

If Fortress Europe is the anti-KGF strat, Case Blue sure looks like the anti-KJF strat.

[Hobbes]

@Advosan:

If Fortress Europe is the anti-KGF strat, Case Blue sure looks like the anti-KJF strat.

It actually came out of recent experience playing online at GTO - I’ve never seen so many people trying KJF or a mix of both or just going overboard with the Russians and getting a sub and a fighter on the initial buy. If the Allied player still decides to go KJF after the German round then it’s almost a sure win, although there are veteran players on GTO forums who claim that Russia can fall as long as the US holds the Pacific islands… I’m still trying to prove/disprove that hypothesis.

[Hobbes]

2nd trial in progress…

Russia bought 1 bomber, attacked Belo and WR, 12 units left in WR, Caucasus abandoned, 4 INF sent to Sinkiang. Entire Luftwaffe used on WRus at the expense of 3 fighters (Low Luck).
UK counters by landing on Archangel and build a South Africa IC. Japan moves fleet to SZ34, within range of the UK but just want I want him to try…
US goes Atlantic… this should be interesting…
Russia attacks WRus, Caucasus, Buryatia and China(!)
Germany sinks Allied fleet off SZ4, takes Caucasus, WRus, Archangel and Egypt. Russia is reduced to 6 INF, 2 ARM and the planes.

[MrMalachiCrunch]

A great piece of work.  I look forward to hearing further updates and trials in action!

[Hobbes]

Well game over, great game. The Allies built an IC on Sinkiang and managed to held it until round 4 or 5 until they were forced to pull back from the Japanese. The Germans took a hold of Caucasus on round 4 and never released it afterwards.

The SA IC didn’t work, neither the US strat of sending troops through Africa. With Germans in control of Caucasus it blocked any attempt to advance. Interesting game though.

[newpaintbrush]

@Hobbes:

there are veteran players on GTO forums who claim that Russia can fall as long as the US holds the Pacific islands… I’m still trying to prove/disprove that hypothesis.

We make some assumptions, ending with Russia falling and US grabbing the Pacific islands.  This has to be round five or six at least.  So what do we know?

1.  We know UK doesn’t have a particularly healthy navy reinforcement to Russia (or at least it shouldn’t), BECAUSE Russia fell.  (If there are loads of UK troops ready to secure Moscow after Germany grabs Moscow for a single turn, then Russia didn’t really “fall”).

2.  Probably Germany controls Africa.

3.  US has at least two carriers, four fighters, and at least two destroyers in the islands south of Japan.  Plus one or two transports, and controls certain 4 IPC islands.

Now here’s the key assumption that I think these GTO vets are making.  I would guess they think the Japanese fleet is destroyed.  If the Jap fleet is destroyed, then US has logistic advantage with amphibious assaults on territories, and probably US and UK can work together to harass European coast/Africa/finish Japan (not all of those, but enough to get a win)

But if the Japanese fleet is NOT destroyed - and it should not be, because Japan can always just run away - Germany can get into the mix.  Then, I think Axis have the advantage.

[Hobbes]

@Bunnies:

@Hobbes:

there are veteran players on GTO forums who claim that Russia can fall as long as the US holds the Pacific islands… I’m still trying to prove/disprove that hypothesis.

We make some assumptions, ending with Russia falling and US grabbing the Pacific islands.  This has to be round five or six at least.  So what do we know?

1.  We know UK doesn’t have a particularly healthy navy reinforcement to Russia (or at least it shouldn’t), BECAUSE Russia fell.  (If there are loads of UK troops ready to secure Moscow after Germany grabs Moscow for a single turn, then Russia didn’t really “fall”).

2.  Probably Germany controls Africa.

3.  US has at least two carriers, four fighters, and at least two destroyers in the islands south of Japan.  Plus one or two transports, and controls certain 4 IPC islands.

Now here’s the key assumption that I think these GTO vets are making.  I would guess they think the Japanese fleet is destroyed.  If the Jap fleet is destroyed, then US has logistic advantage with amphibious assaults on territories, and probably US and UK can work together to harass European coast/Africa/finish Japan (not all of those, but enough to get a win)

But if the Japanese fleet is NOT destroyed - and it should not be, because Japan can always just run away - Germany can get into the mix.  Then, I think Axis have the advantage

Meh, even if the Japanese fleet is destroyed I’m still not convinced, I need to get beaten to change my mind. The more experience you have playing J on KFJ, the more you know how to harass the US fleet, even with Yamato rusting at the bottom of the ocean.

[newpaintbrush]

Probably the GTO vets are also assuming most of the Axis air is already dead too.

[Hobbes]

I’ve faced this strat today against me and I’m glad I realized how to do it because it was very, very, very close. The other player had it all figured out - too bad I also had :)

Russia rolls badly on WRus and loses 5 inf in total, while moving the 6 inf to Buryatia. G buys 8 armor and goes for it. Game got decided on round 3 - the Russians attacked the German stack on Ukraine with everything (didn’t even bother calc - if I lost that was it) and won while the Germans attacked Caucasus (I had moved everything with the UK from India and Africa - 6 inf, 1 arm and 4 fighters and lost. Japan meanwhile was building 2 fighters a turn, in no doubt to protect either WRus or Caucasus but it was pointless when Germany lost those battles.

[newpaintbrush]

Japan needed to go IC/tanks if Germany went G1 8 tank build.

So, Hobbes - you did West Russia/Norway open with Allies, did badly at West Russia, put 6 infantry at Buryatia, and put the UK India fighter on Buryatia on UK1?  What happened with Anglo-Egypt?

[Hobbes]

I attacked WRus and Ukr with Russia. With the UK I sank the SZ16 (had brought the INF and ARM from Libya to Ukr), SZ59 and SZ5 fleets. I then pulled back everything towards Caucasus, even abandoning India to J - the Germans were getting ready to hit it heavy soon, and I think it saved my hide.