Part Two - The Opening Soviet Round
The most likely scenarios of territories being attacked by the USSR on round 1 will be listed below. The first ones are usually the best to employ this strat. The first set of brackets indicate the odds for the Soviets to win ALL of these battles. Any unexpected Soviet defeats on the territories of WRus, Belo and Ukr will strongly benefit this strategy. Afterwards it examines the situation on West Russia on the detail: first is the number of Soviet attackers, then the average losses and the available German units that can attack WRus. Finally, and the most important, the 3 most probable outcomes (around 60% of all rolls) regarding the number of Soviet units left on WRus and the German odds for each outcome with all the German units that can reach the territory. All the odds are calculated with the Soviet AA Gun, but the gun isn’t counted for the total of Soviet units.
The second deciding factor are the actual combat results. If Germany kills less units than the average while defending on SU1 then most likely you should choose another strat. If it kills more than average then Germany can not use all of its airforce on the WRus attack, liberating them for other secondary targets (more on that later). Above all, you should ALWAYS calculate the results by yourself to check before attacking since the list below can’t possibly cover all possible situations.
The last issue to look for is the type of dice that is being used, regular or Low Luck (LL). LL will restrict the Soviet combat losses and can possibly remove some options to attack West Russia but at the same time it removes the uncertainty regarding the AA Gun by limiting the planes losses to 1, making it less of a gamble. Regular dice offers the possibility of a bigger range of results during combat on SU1 but it also increases the uncertainty regarding the AA shots at the start of the G1 attack on West Russia.
1) West Russia, Ukraine and Norway (35%/56%)
Soviet Attack on WRus: 6 INF, 1 ART
SU1 Average Soviet losses: 3-5 INF
G1 WRus German attack force: (3 INF, 1 ARM, 4 FTR, 1 BMR)
West Russia Odds:
- 4 R units - 100%/100%
- 3 R units - 100%/100%
- 2 R units - 100%/100%
- This is one of the worst openings that the USSR can make because of the odds and it will leave all of its starting forces dispersed and vulnerable to German counterattacks.
- Usually this attack is rare to happen, unless your opponent decides to try something new.
2) West Russia and Norway (86%/100%)
Soviet Attack: 9 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM
SU1 Losses: 2-3 INF
G1 Attack: 16 units (6 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM, 5 FTR, 1 BMR)
- 13 R units - 87%/100%
- 12 R units - 94%/100%
- 11 R units - 99%/100%
- This is the 2nd best choice for Germany, with the possible bonus of killing a Soviet FTR on Karelia.
- Usually this opening is made by the Soviet player with the propose of saving the Allied fleet on SZ2 by killing the German FTR on Norway.
3) West Russia and Belorussia (96%/100%)
Soviet Attack: 9 INF, 2 ART, 4 ARM
SU1 Losses: 2 INF
G1 Attack: 14 units (3 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM, 6 FTR, 1 BMR)
- 14 R units - 66%/84%
- 13 R units - 75%/97%
- 12 R units - 86%/100%
- Usually the USSR will either bring less units than mentioned above to defend Caucasus or leave only 1-2 INF on Caucasus.
- On both cases you should definitely hit WRus if there’s 12 or less units AND take Caucasus with an amphibious landing.
- With regular dice, it will definitely depend on the results.
4) West Russia and Ukraine (90%/100%)
Soviet Attack: see below
SU1 Losses: 3 INF
G1 attack force: 11 units (3 INF, 1 ARM, 5 FTR, 1 BMR)
a) Russia attacks with 9 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM
- 9 R units - 70%/97%
- 8 R units - 82%/100%
- 7 R units - 91%/100%
b) Russia attacks with 9 INF, 1 ART, 2 ARM
- 10 R units - 45%/37%
- 9 R units - 62%/84%
- 8 R units - 80%/N/A
- Option b) is safer for the Soviets but there are still some opportunities, depending on SU1 losses and dice. This option is very usual to see with LL dice.
5) West Russia, Ukraine and Belorussia (57%/90%)
Soviet Attack: 6 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM
SU1 Losses: 3-4 INF
G1 attack force: 7 units (1 ARM, 5 FTR, 1 BMR)
- 6 R units - 73%/96%
- 5 R units - 87%/100%
- 4 R units - 95%/100%
- This option depends on dice: with regular dice, it’s almost suicide for the Soviets; with LL it can be a very good Soviet opening, since it clears all territories adjacent to WRus.
- When playing with LL Germany will have to sacrifice nearly all of the Luftwaffe, which can be too costly, unless the Soviet attack on Ukraine fails to conquer it, allowing the German ARM on the Balkans to reach West Russia.
- With regular dice, the odds are that something will go wrong in 1 of the attacks.
6) West Russia (100%/100%)
Soviet Attack: 12 INF, 2 ART, 4 ARM
SU1 Losses: 2 INF
G1 attack force: (6 INF, 1 ART, 3 ARM, 6 FTR, 1 BMR)
- 17 R units - 46%/36%
- 16 R units - 58%/85%
- 15 R units - 82%/N/A
- This is the safest Soviet opening, since it allows them to mass all of their starting army on WRus.
- It also makes the Caucasus vulnerable to attack, if the Soviets leave only 8 units there (4 new builds, 2 INF from Kazakh, 2 FTRs), so the Soviets will either have to hold back some units, raising the odds for Germany, or retreat from Caucasus.
The Soviet Buy & Non-Combat Move
On the previous part it is mentioned that another important factor is the initial Soviet purchase. Any planes or SUBs bought by the Soviets will even drop lower the TUV difference, the same happening with Russia moving the any/all 6 INF from Kazakh/Novo/Evenki to somewhere else other than Russia/Caucasus. Russia moving the 6 INF on Buryatia is also an enticement since they usually can be destroyed by Japan on J1, even if the UK lands a fighter there.
Round 1 - Germany
Purchases
- 5 INF and 5 ARM. This ratio of infantry/armor should also be the same buy on round 2.
- Another possibility is the 8 ARM buy, for maximum pressure on Russia on round 3 - this purchase is common but it will leave Germany shorthanded on infantry against early Allied landings on Europe.
Combat/Non-Combat Movement
Eastern Front
- Attack West Russia and retake any other territories lost to the Soviets.
As for secondary objectives they depends on how much forces can be spared from the main attack on West Russia to distract the UK from assisting the USSR by having to sink the German Med fleet and getting rid of the German units on Africa. The longer those forces are kept alive the better, but the objective is the Soviet Union - they are considered expendable from the beginning of the game.
SZ14 Fleet
- Attack SZ13 and invade Gibraltar with 1 INF.
- Amphibious attack on Caucasus.
- Reinforce Libya/Ukraine on non-combat and/or attack the UK CA or DD with the German BB.
- Invade Trans-Jordan to prevent UK fleet to sail into the Med.
- Attack SZ15 and Egypt, if 1 FTR from Balkans/Ukraine can be spared.
SZ8 SUB
- Attack SZ1
- Attack SZ2 (if FTR + BMR available)
Other Moves
- Move the INF + ART from Algeria to Libya to attack Egypt on G2.
Round 1 - Japan
Purchases
- 1 DD and 3 TRN or 3 TRN, 1 ARM and 1 INF
Combat Moves
- Buryatia. The objective is to destroy the 6 Soviet INF, if they have been moved there. Japan can break a stack of 6 INF + 1 FTR on Buryatia with 1 BB, 1 CA, 4 FTRs, 1 BMR, 3 INF and 1 ARM. Very important - keep the armour alive, by sacrificing a fighter if necessary.
- China - to kill the US FTR
All other attacks (SZ52) are secondary to those 2 ones, but Japan should not leave any naval units within range of the Allies, specially the UK. Usually the carrier off the Carolines joins the rest of the fleet at SZ60, along with 2 FTRs. It is more important to ignore the UK if they decided to go after Borneo or Indochina - those are distractions meant for Japan to divert its attention from Buryatia and they also divert units away from Africa/Middle East to Germany’s benefit.
Finally Part 3 will focus on Allied responses to this strat.