11L LL(+19) v Gamerman01(x) '41 no tech

[LuckyLindy]

You and Yoshi, probably the two best players on the site, are also getting the best dice against me.  Although to be fair it seems like everyone is getting pretty great dice against me right now.  Evidently I have severely offended the dice gods. 
:lol:

[gamerman01]

The dice were a little better than average for you toward the beginning.

I’ve witnessed players getting long strings of bad dice many times before over the past 3 1/2 years on this site.  Be careful.  After a little while it gets in their heads, and then they get paranoid, and overlook all the times that they do get good luck.  We all notice the times we get bad luck more than the times we get good luck, but most of us are OK with that until we get long strings of noticeably bad luck.  Also, we tend to be more sensitive toward bad luck against someone who’s hard to beat, because each instance creates increasing problems for us.

I thought maybe Yoshi was getting better dice than me, but when I went through turn by turn and tabulated results, I found that we had even dice.  I just remember that his G1 and J1 went without any significant losses (very bad for Allies) and of course remember my R2 disaster of trading 13 units for 4 (which I believe cost me the game - if I go on to lose).  But I easily forget when he attacked my bomber on the Solomons with 2 infantry and lost, and that I have had significantly better SBR results than he has so far.  It’s our nature to remember the bad dice (for us) and forget a lot of the good/amazing dice.

I could tell you about the time I raided the American fleet in Z56 with 98% odds to win, and lost.  I had to retreat 2 loaded transports that were going to hit naked bombers on WUS after the win, and those 2 loaded transports were subsequently slaughtered.

I could tell you about the time I was behind in a game (lost Moscow) and attacked Poland with my fledgling UK and ran an SBR of Germany.  I lost (pretty sure it was) 4 out of 5 aircraft to AA.  That was all 5 of the aircraft I had, and all of my repeating offense.

Or the time(s) when my Japan has been dice raped in the first few rounds and crippled (not counting this game)
Or the time I lost a cruiser in Z50 on J1 (hehe - you know about that one)
And many more, if I sit and think about it…

I actually won the first two games above, because I was much more experienced/skilled than my opponent and could overcome them.  But against a really good player, as you said, you can’t afford to have a little more bad dice than your opponent.  I prefer to play opponents who I can still beat with a little bad dice…  Because it sucks to lose just because of dice.

I could list 5 players I have played who became “snakebit” by dice, and then grew paranoid.  Please don’t let it happen to you.

I invite you to go through this entire game and assess the luck.  To do it objectively, come up with an objective system for grading dice results before starting to review.  I typically measure AA misses vs. hits, and the hit rate of defending 2’s…  If measuring offensive dice, rule out meaningless rolls of course.

Like everyone, I’m biased toward myself, so I remember the times I suffered bad luck early in this game.  I think it was some of the bad luck that got me into the big jam I was in after about 7 rounds, but I don’t know that an objective reviewer would agree.

Don’t worry, you haven’t been talking about dice to the point that it has become annoying.  But you’re getting there…  :-)  I don’t play with people who obsess about dice.  It gets old, fast.

It has been a real pleasure playing you, and I hope to play many more in the coming year(s).  Japan coming soon.  I see you are not going to let me get that fleet started.  I’ll have to do something else.

Cheers

[gamerman01]

@LuckyLindy:

In A and A you just have to laugh at the dice sometimes.

Or any dice game….
Last year I was playing Lord of the Rings Risk with my 13 y/o girl, and I have way more experience playing Risk than she does.  Neither of us had played this version very many times yet (is a very fun game, btw).  Anyway, she had a better strategy than me, and was invading my biggest stronghold in route to taking over much of Mordor and crippling me severely.  We rolled round after round of dice (we each had at least 30 armies or so) and I’m sure you’ve seen this if you’ve played much Risk, but she just could not win.  I learned from my daughter that night.  Of course, I’m the guy who wins all the games he plays (unless they’re PURE luck  :-D), and here she had a good shot at beating me in a strategy game but the dice wouldn’t allow it.  I was very impressed by her reaction.  I told her several times that she can’t help what the dice do, but she really took it well.  She had a “maybe next time” outlook.  Mind you, it takes like 30-45 minutes to set this game up, and from the beginning, the dice just destroyed her plans.  And she loves Lord of the Rings (and her elves), and she hates it when the Orcs win.

Man, I hate losing to dice, or when they destroy my strategies…  But we sure like it when the dice destroy our opponent’s strategies, or bless ours…  I always say, the dice can make you look like a genius or an idiot.  It’s one of the things we all love about this game - until we perceive that they’ve turned against us…

Anyway, sorry I wrote so much - I enjoy talking A&A

[LuckyLindy]

Sorry I didn’t mean to complain was just laughing really that the dice really are taking a crazy toll in many of my games right now.  Hard for me to believe but several other players have commented the same.  I know its just a rough patch, as can happen when dice are involved.  But man, it sure has been crazy lately.  I do think the dice in this game have been pretty on par probably not affecting the game too much either way overall.  The same can not be said in my games with Yoshi unfortunately :-(

[LuckyLindy]

Yeah I think it is probably best if I do not let you build more Japanese fleet.  :wink:

[gamerman01]

@LuckyLindy:

Sorry I didn’t mean to complain was just laughing really that the dice really are taking a crazy toll in many of my games right now.  Hard for me to believe but several other players have commented the same.  I know its just a rough patch, as can happen when dice are involved.  But man, it sure has been crazy lately.  I do think the dice in this game have been pretty on par probably not affecting the game too much either way overall.  The same can not be said in my games with Yoshi unfortunately :-(

Agreed!
Sounds like it!
You are to be commended for voluntarily taking him on  :-)

[gamerman01]

J21 with 55, buy INF, 2 ARM, 3 SS, 2 BMB

Combat moves -
StC - ARM (Man) 6 BMB (Fuk)
Kwa - 18 FTR (Fuk)

StCRolls: 1@3 6@4; Total Hits: 51@3: (4)6@4: (1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 3)Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 01@3: (6)
KwaRolls: 18@3; Total Hits: 818@3: (4, 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 6, 5, 3, 1, 5, 4, 5, 5, 5, 1, 1)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[gamerman01]

Cashing in on LL’s crappy luck streak….

Fuk - 18 FTR (Kwa)
Man - 6 BMB (StC)
Z13 - All (Z15)
Z46 - SS (Z41)
Z51 - SS (Z60) SS (Z61) SS (Z62) SS (Z36) SS (Z50) SS (Z45)

Place INF, 2 ARM (Man)
Place 2 BMB (Jpn)
Place 3 SS (Z62)
Collect 37, 37 on hand

11L_LL(19)_v_Gamerman01_1941_21c.AAM

[LuckyLindy]

Britain turn 21

Purchase

37 IPC

3 repair to GBR
submarine
2 ac

Combat Moves

CNG (tank) v 5 fighters (SUD)
EGY (infantry, 9 tanks, AA gun) v 3 infantry, 11 fighters (LIB), tank (ALG), 5 fighters, bomber (SUD)
BRY (empty) v tank (FAR) blitz back to FAR
STC (tank) v tank, 8 fighters (YAK)

dice

CNG
A - 5 fighters
Rolls: 5@3; Total Hits: 25@3: (4, 3, 5, 1, 5)
D - tank
Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 11@3: (1)

[LuckyLindy]

SUD taken with 4 fighters, not controlled

STC
A - tank, 8 fighters
Rolls: 9@3; Total Hits: 39@3: (2, 4, 4, 5, 1, 5, 2, 5, 6)
D - tank
Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 01@3: (5)

[LuckyLindy]

STC taken with tank, 8 fighters

EGY AA gun

16 fighters
Rolls: 16@1; Total Hits: 316@1: (6, 6, 3, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 2, 4, 3, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3)

bomber
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 11@1: (1)

[LuckyLindy]

the unlucky streak that never ends just continues to deepen!  :lol:

EGY round 1
A - 3 infantry, tank, 13 fighters
Rolls: 3@1 14@3; Total Hits: 93@1: (1, 1, 1)14@3: (5, 5, 3, 1, 3, 6, 1, 2, 4, 2, 5, 4, 5, 6)
D - infantry, 9 tank

[LuckyLindy]

D
Rolls: 1@2 9@3; Total Hits: 61@2: (4)9@3: (3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 6, 3, 6, 5)

[LuckyLindy]

You can’t make this stuff up!

EGY round 2
A - tank, 10 fighters
Rolls: 11@3; Total Hits: 411@3: (6, 5, 6, 2, 1, 6, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1)
D - tank
Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 11@3: (2)

[LuckyLindy]

EGY taken with tank, 9 fighters

Noncombat Moves

3 transports, battleship from Z12 to Z7
2 fighters from ALG to Z7
2 fighters from LIB to Z12
9 fighters from EGY to LIB
4 fighters from CNG to SUD
tank from YAK to FAR
8 fighters from STC to FAR
3 infantry from ALG to LIB

Mobilize

submarine, 2 ac in Z7

Income

29 + 5 NO = 34

Was hoping the unlucky streak would end this morning but it only got deeper!  :lol: :lol: :lol:  This could be an unlucky streak to “go down in history”?

11L_LL(19)_v_Gamerman01_1941_21d.AAM

[gamerman01]

You’re starting to sound a lot like an old friend of mine…

What about the triple 1’s on attacking infantry in Egypt - reducing my defense on round 2?
I know, my defense was above average too so it cancelled it out, but still…  would have been worse if the 3 infantry had missed.

Glad that UK air force is finally diminishing

[gamerman01]

@LuckyLindy:

Was hoping the unlucky streak would end this morning but it only got deeper!   :lol: :lol: :lol:  This could be an unlucky streak to “go down in history”?

Probably!
But I don’t know about your luck in all your other games (sounds like it’s been really bad for a long time).
Keep pushing through it!  There’s no such thing as luck following a player!  Each roll is an independent event!  No one’s out to get you!  Don’t stop playing!

[LuckyLindy]

I will not stop playing do not worry - it is just a streak that is bound to end!!  I am looking forward to our third game I think I have understood a few things from this one that should be a big help.

Cheers

[LuckyLindy]

In my estimation this last round or so has greatly reduced my chances in this game, beginning with the similar mostly air attack you made on EGY with the Germans that went quite well in contrast to the one we just witnessed.

It now appears pretty clear the axis will prevail.  :-)

Cheers

[gamerman01]

OK, well let me know when you’re ready to quit…  In the meantime I’ll just enjoy making G more and more powerful  :-)
I’ve been very comfortable with this game from the time I was comfortable I would not lose Sumatra or Japan.  From my experience, there was no way I was going to lose after that.  My only fear was America producing 4 or 8 units a turn and easily transporting them all to the mainland…  Taking me long enough to make it convincing without all that…

Glad you’re not overly discouraged on the luck.  Just keep trying to look at the dice from an objective eye