It’s also worth remembering that one sub on one cruiser is a coin flip, because the cruiser only rolls its attack if the sub misses.
Final word?
There’s two obvious options
(a) Do Tobruk instead of Taranto
(b) Let the SZ96 fleet live.
(a) Is quite weak
(b) I seem even more hurt by this attack failing than opting out of Taranto.
Does anyone have any reasonable plays for this scenario?
In addition to forces above I’ll send the strategic bomber from England and fighters if their still around from the scramble for your fleet. If you send the fighters from England you have to commit your carrier. Lose those fighters 1st if you feel you might retreat. This gives you two additional fighters and a bomber.