Lemming (Allies) v Wheatbeer (Axis) g40 a2

[wheatbeer]

France can’t impact Germany so I am going to post G6 for the sake of expediency.

G6

Buy (51/51)
17 inf

CM:

POL
2 inf, 1 art ger

EPL
22 inf, 2 mech, 14 art, 6 tank hun
1 inf, 3 art rom
1 fig sita

[wheatbeer]

POL

A 2 inf, 1 art

Rolls: 1@1 2@2; Total Hits: 01@1: (6)2@2: (5, 5)

D 1 inf

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[wheatbeer]

POL r2

A 2 inf, 1 art

Rolls: 1@1 2@2; Total Hits: 11@1: (4)2@2: (3, 2)

D 1 inf

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (5)

[wheatbeer]

pol twol

EPL

aa fire

Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (4)

[wheatbeer]

EPL

A 23 inf, 2 mech, 17 art, 6 tank, 1 fig

Rolls: 8@1 34@2 7@3; Total Hits: 258@1: (1, 5, 6, 1, 6, 6, 2, 3)34@2: (1, 6, 2, 1, 2, 1, 6, 2, 3, 3, 1, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2, 2, 5, 4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 1, 4, 1, 1, 3, 1, 3, 5, 1, 2, 1)7@3: (2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 4)

D 28 inf, 11 art, 7 tank, 1 tact, 1 fig

Rolls: 39@2 8@3 1@4; Total Hits: 1539@2: (5, 6, 1, 2, 4, 3, 3, 2, 6, 4, 3, 6, 5, 3, 3, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 5, 1, 2, 5, 2, 4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 6, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 6, 3)8@3: (3, 3, 5, 2, 2, 2, 4, 1)1@4: (5)

[wheatbeer]

Did not expect that.  I need to think.

[wheatbeer]

I guess I’ll push on.

EPL r2

A 8 inf, 2 mech, 17 art, 6 tank, 1 fig

Rolls: 27@2 7@3; Total Hits: 1027@2: (1, 2, 4, 6, 5, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 2, 2, 4, 1, 3, 1, 5, 4, 3, 6, 1, 1, 5)7@3: (2, 5, 3, 6, 6, 5, 4)

D 3 inf, 11 art, 7 tank, 1 tact, 1 fig

Rolls: 14@2 8@3 1@4; Total Hits: 1014@2: (5, 3, 6, 3, 6, 5, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 2, 6, 6)8@3: (3, 2, 6, 2, 6, 3, 2, 6)1@4: (4)

[wheatbeer]

EPL r3

A 17 art, 6 tank, 1 fig

Rolls: 17@2 7@3; Total Hits: 817@2: (2, 5, 5, 2, 5, 3, 2, 3, 5, 6, 2, 2, 6, 1, 3, 2, 5)7@3: (6, 2, 5, 4, 6, 6, 4)

D 4 art, 7 tank, 1 tact, 1 fig

Rolls: 4@2 8@3 1@4; Total Hits: 74@2: (1, 6, 6, 2)8@3: (6, 5, 3, 2, 4, 2, 3, 2)1@4: (5)

[wheatbeer]

EPL r4

A 10 art, 6 tank, 1 fig

Rolls: 10@2 7@3; Total Hits: 910@2: (6, 2, 4, 3, 6, 1, 1, 2, 1, 5)7@3: (5, 5, 1, 5, 1, 1, 2)

D 3 tank, 1 tact, 1 fig

Rolls: 4@3 1@4; Total Hits: 14@3: (5, 5, 4, 6)1@4: (2)

[wheatbeer]

epl twlo 23 inf, 2 mech, 8 art

[wheatbeer]

NCM:

1 fig epl >> hun
1 aa gun hun >> epl
2 mech sita >> fra
2 carrier, 1 fig, 2 tact SZ98 >> SZ92
2 trans SZ98 >> SZ97
1 fig SZ98 >> sita
1 sub SZ95 >> SZ98
2 inf nita >> fra
4 inf wgr >> ger
4 inf, 3 art ger >> pol

Mobilize:
7 inf wgr
10 inf ger

Collect 44 IPC

lemming v wheat g6.AAM

[Lemming]

Think I can concede. The luck was just not realistic

[wheatbeer]

If you want me to reroll, I’m willing to do that rather than simply end the game.

But I have to point out that there was 5.4% chance of Germany doing that well or better and a 38.8% chance of Germany winning the battle overall (unless the odds calculator at frood.net is in error).

I am not denying I was lucky, but it wasn’t that improbable either.

[wheatbeer]

• the end result being 5.4% chance or better

After running round 1 probability, Germany’s hits on Round 1 alone being so effective was only a 0.8% chance.

Let me know whether you want a reroll or what.

[Lemming]

I’m not trying to worm my way out. I had a guy just quit on me after bad dice roll in fights he should never have tried, so I know it’s frustrating.

My calculator says your average IPC loss 169, mine 149, with a 40% chance you win vs a 60% chance I win.
By low-luck, you should have 81+342+73=97/6=16 MOD 1 hits
I should have 392+83+14=106/6=17 MOD 4 hits.
A difference of 10 more hits is way too huge in the first roll of a a near 50 dice per side battle.
I’m ok if you actually win, just not with 9 Art, 6 tanks and 1 fighter left  :-)

The kind of naval battle off Egypt earlier when my Med fleet was wiped out, or the crazy roll in Fin last round, I can certainly accept as part and parcel of the game. It’s high stakes and calculated risk, but with 50 dice a side and plenty of inf to soak the hits, you would think luck will even out. There’s no way I can change my strat to address this kind of extremes, unless you double my IPCs. It would be unplayable.

It’s a shame to end. I fought off a NZ kill but your Japs are ruling the Pacific. I’m just making Normandy but your Africa is rock solid, eastern front v balanced until this. Certainly a great game.

In my ftf games our house rule is not allowed to even try such mega fights with low margins, unless we are about to stop the game anyway. Just leaves a bad taste in everyone’s mouth otherwise.

I’ll leave it to you, we continue with low luck if you still want to roll for this? Unfair to make you swallow a lousy result too. I know you’re trying a hit and run, but normally I only do it when I have overwhelmingly superior hitting power which you do not. Your call.

[wheatbeer]

I just wanted to weaken EPL enough that it could not take POL and perhaps dissuade it from entering Romania again.

Low like is hitting power divided by 6 then rolling the remainder right?

[wheatbeer]

So MOD 4 means you’d roll 4@1 or 1@4?

[Lemming]

1@4.
Really if you are uncomfortable it’s cool too.

[wheatbeer]

I don’t mind using low luck for this battle given that I already risked significant losses.  I don’t want to use low luck for the whole game though.

So I will roll for EPL r1 remainders

A

Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (3)

D

Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 01@4: (6)

[wheatbeer]

leaves us with

Germany

2 mech, 6 inf, 17 art, 6 tank, 1 fig

USSR

12 inf, 11 art, 7 tank, 1 tact, 1 fig