UK1 against the 4 TT buy?
UK would have the CA from 91, I don’t see Germany being able to hit it on G2.
And if the Canadian ships aren’t hit, I also have that DD to use from Gibraltar.
Without DD -
5 Fig, 1 Tac, 1 CA vs 1 BB, 1 CA, 3 Fig
is 71% for UK.
With DD -
5 Fig, 1 Tac, 1 DD, 1 CA vs 1 BB, 1 CA, 3 Fig
is 90% UK.
That’s pretty convincing to me.
Oops, forgot about blocking with the DD. Forget that last part, I guess.
We have 2 DDs to use, if the one from 106 survives, which it shouldn’t
Ah, so we’re not going with James’s move of hitting 109 with three subs. Sorry about that.
No. My reason for I outlined in post 183.
If that is the case, why does UK not just hit 112 with its remaining DD, CA and 4 Fig?
That’s 55% UK.
Better odds to hit on UK2. That being said, I think you are forced to hit UK1, though. I’m just looking to see what it would look like if Germany went for G3 with this - and the answer is Germany can’t.
Ah, I see now.
I’m pretty convinced that this 4 TT buy doesn’t really pan out.
Not getting a carrier for protecting the fleet makes Germany bend over backward with risks to its air.
And regarding your I2 -
Why not take Gibraltar?
Without doing that, UK can crush the German fleet with combined fleet and air possessions while Germany sits in 111 after G3.
Also - it seems like the 3 Inf, 1 Arm in Syria would be safe in Iraq after hitting those 2 British Inf.
Certainly would speed up Italy’s growth.
Without having taken Greece or Gibraltar, Italy is missing out on another very obtainable NO.
Not of consequence to Sealion, but still quite beneficial.
Couple small issues with Italy’s movements,
but the only one of consequence I see is not nabbing Gibraltar.
I was mostly concerned with what can be done to directly influence Sealion.
By all means take Gib instead. I see Italy as having options in a full UK defense.
I only wanted to see if we can defend London, and we can.
I will point out that the tournament bid as it is now would change this.
for those that want to land in Scotland:
23 inf, 1 art, 4 tanks, 5 fht, 1 tac
vs
12 inf, 5 art, 8 tanks, 1 AA
for 3 rounds
UK loses 20 units
Germany loses 22 units(this would be better for UK if Germany lands with only inf)
UK will have in London 13 inf, 1 art 4 tanks, 6 fht, 1 tac
VERY expensive for Germany. They should still win it, but … wow.
This is from a few pages back, but I realized the numbers were wrong.
UK london forces can be the same, but Germ is using 13 trns in this scenario, and therefore its best defense for Scotland will be 13 inf, 4 art, 8 arm aa gun.
I think these end up with the same numbers, which look really rough for UK especially considering they should probably lose a plane to the aa gun. UK has to shoot through 13 inf before getting to offensive units, and because they are strafing we know Germ will be left with aa gun and 1+arm remaining.
The other thing is placement of the remaining UK naval assets. I think in retrospect it would be better to put the UK trns in 110 with the CV and CA. This gives UK the best chance of surviving a G3 attack on that fleet. I wonder should there be 2 ftrs on the carrier too?
UK london forces can be the same, but Germ is using 13 trns in this scenario, and therefore its best defense for Scotland will be 13 inf, 4 art, 8 arm aa gun.
I think these end up with the same numbers, which look really rough for UK especially considering they should probably lose a plane to the aa gun. UK has to shoot through 13 inf before getting to offensive units, and because they are strafing we know Germ will be left with aa gun and 1+arm remaining.
The other thing is placement of the remaining UK naval assets. I think in retrospect it would be better to put the UK trns in 110 with the CV and CA. This gives UK the best chance of surviving a G3 attack on that fleet. I wonder should there be 2 ftrs on the carrier too?
The numbers I gave 20 units and 22 units is an average of running the battle 10 000 for 3 rounds only. As for shooting down 1 plane, I did have the AA gun on, but forgot to deduct it. Add 1 more UK inf and subtract 1 plane.
Germany will need to have enough to overcome the remaining units on G4, which can be done, but not much left in Europe.
If Germany has less than 13 TTs, G4 will be a disaster.
If Germany has less than 13 TTs, G4 will be a disaster.
That hasn’t been our groups experience. Yesterday (the 4th Sunday of the month when we meetup) The German player had 10 transports, after G4 he secured London with 20+ units. Lost 2 air to aaguns, and the UK player kept air units in there. London battle went 3 combat rounds. I would have done a few things different if I commanded UK assets (like keep elements of my fleet that were alive able to hit German fleet.)
When I play Germany, and perform a G4 I typically also have just 10 transports (this is with the standard opening of a carrier + 2TT).
Format for that outcome was, German fleet in sz112 after round 1. No UK attacks on fleet or Scotland.(perhaps they are necessary)
German fleet in sz 111 after round 2. Land force Scotland = 5 vs 13 land in London
German fleet in sz 111 after round 3. Land force Scotland = 25 vs 25 land in London (if CA TT lives G1)
German fleet in sz 110 after round 4. Land force to hit London = 45 vs 35 land in London Germany has 15+land left after battle.
There are a few things that can be added to London given some choices in the Med. namely 2 more land and 2 more air.
Regardless, a G4 in terms of seizing London hasn’t been a disaster yet. It does have bearing on the Russian front. I am not advocating one way or the other.
Personally, I still enjoy more fulfilling games as a UK player when I pull all assets out of London turn 1 (sacrifice to get USA in the war USA2) as I have 6 air units and a fleet harassing Italy’s intact fleet. This also permits an India DOW on turn 1. If you want details, I am creating another thread for it.
German fleet in sz 110 after round 4. Land force to hit London = 45 vs 35 land in London Germany has 15+land left after battle.
Looks like UK is not hitting Scotland on its turn as outlined above. With only 10 TTs, Germany has in SCotland 10 inf, 9 tanks, 1 AA at best. Uk hits it with 23 inf, 1 art, 4 tanks, 5 fht, 1 tac.
I would hit it for sure.
Average surviving units after 2 rounds of battle (run 10 000 times):
UK - 20 units
Germany - 3 units
These numbers are assuming Germany lands with its best units possible in Scotland, so it will have had to have bought more for the invasion of London.
Remaining in UK is 19 inf, 4 tanks, 6 planes, 1 AA. You MUST hit and run on UK 3 as outlined. It is the best chance for UK to inflict damage, or even stop Sealion if there are not enough TTs.
Heh, I agree Jim! After running this little thought experiment I believe I can hold London through till G4, at which time I plan on making the fall of London as bloody as possible for Germany. I can’t wait till I get to play Axis again because I’m going to try the G2 Barbarossa invasion.
I think we need to have a collaboration on the summary. What does everyone think is the results of this test? Has a G3 Sealion been defeated? Also Jim could you post a bit more about the G3 Scotland/G4 london attack? If Germ lands with 13 trns in Scotland G3, what is UK’s response and average losses in 1 round of combat?
Personally I think we’ve cracked the Sealion, but I can’t seem to get any hands on experience because my opponent has been going early Barbarossa lately.
If UK is very thorough and pulls everything to London to defend, G3 is just about out of the question.
Germany could still pull it off, but it really won’t be close to worth it.
The G4 attack is unstoppable. Maybe Germany will lose more tanks than he’d like if UK attacks Scotland on UK3, but London will fall, just about guaranteed. And Germany will not lose nearly as much as he would during a G3 attack.
Of course, we ran through this whole thing assuming that the 106 transport survived. If it didn’t, UK will have 2 less Armor, and thus the Scotland attack by UK will be a bit less powerful.
I’d like to see if we could look at the G1 attack in which we hit 110 and not 111. I’m curious how UK could respond.
I was thinking:
2 Subs to 106
2 Subs to 110
1 Sub to 112
This ensures that 106 will fall (statistically), and the German Cruiser will be unscathed, even with crappy dice.
This does leave UK with another DD and BB, but from 111, what can they do?
No matter where they go, they will always be in range of at least 2 of the statistically 3 remaining German subs, along with the German bomber. Another benefit is that more ground forces (artillery mostly) will be preserved in Normandy and France.
Not to say that we should stop discussing our original run-through, but I think that this could use a little looking at.
I actually really like these moves for a G1. I prefer to do less risky attacks so that I have a better chance at preserving strength. I really like the sub to sz112. This gives you another die that the enemy won’t get to defend against and can help save the German fleet from a UK counter.
I think a lot of the template we set up can still be followed in this scenario, but I bet by leaving the UK capital ships alive it still gives Germ a better shot at London.
I think a lot of the template we set up can still be followed in this scenario,
Oh definitely, I agree with that.
