Best UK defense for Sealion 3 or 4 collaboration

[JimmyHat]

hmmm, I would think on average UK will lose an aircraft to AA fire over scotland, probably a ftr.  In your strafe on Scotland it looks like you left 3 armor remaining?  Thats a pretty good strafe.  What combat units does Germany have remaining on the mainland ready for transport?  Does Germany even have the troops to supply a second force?  From memory they should be sitting on a few arty guns and maybe a mech or 2.  I think we should finish this option before switching to either the 4 trn buy G1 or the Max trn buy G1 and G2 that Jen is suggesting.  Each of those options should end up with separate needs for UK’s defense.

I also don’t like how this scenario involves not killing the UK trn off Canada G1.  I do this every time, I’d rather leave a CA off Gib alive than a trn off Canada as the Germans.

[jim010]

I did have AA guns on when I ran the numbers, so the kills are an average.

HOWEVER, the number of kills is variable.  AND you could actually win and be stuck in Scotland.

However, faced with a G4, I would hit and run every time.

I also don’t like how this scenario involves not killing the UK trn off Canada G1.  I do this every time, I’d rather leave a CA off Gib alive than a trn off Canada as the Germans.

We did hit it.  60%, however, it will survive, so you need to assume it is there.

[jim010]

If that transport is nailed, then odds jump to 76%.

1/3 games you will have a 3/4 chance of succes on G3.

[jim010]

For buying 4 TT, I see the opening G1 we used as the base.

If 3 sb go in on sz109 to kill the DD there, scrambling in sz110 would mean UK wins 88% with 2 planes, and Germany is down 5 planes.  G2 Sealion is out.

Using the standard opening, Germany will have (this is the max):

5 inf, 2 art, 3 tanks, 5 fht, 5 tac, 1 bmb, 1 CA, 1 BB

vs

14 inf, 1 tank, 5 fht, 1 AA

Success 68%

Odds are a little low.  2/3 games success.  1/2 games if UK hits sz112.

[JimmyHat]

If the trn is destroyed, you would think German chances would improve.  Is that the result you wrote us?  75% for Germany if that trn is removed?  Shouldn’t that be more of a priority?  Anyone?

[jim010]

Odds jump to 86% if the TT is dead.

But where are we pulling the sb from?  That makes a big difference for scrambling.

[jim010]

If we pull from sz111, Germany wins 52% with 1 plane

odds now are 66% with the loss of 2 aircraft.  That’s assuming the Canadian TT is lost.  Worse if Germany lost all 3.

sz110 NEEDS 2 sb, 3 fht, 2 tac as a minimum.

[Alsch91]

I don’t think I understand -

G2 Sealion w/ Canadian transport surviving:

5 Inf, 2 Art, 3 Arm, 4 Fig, 5 Tac, 1 Strat, 1 BB, 1 CA vs 14 Inf, 1 Arm, 5 Fig, AA gun

is only 41.8% for Germany.

Germany must put at least 1 Fig in 110 to protect the meager 1 BB, 1 CA from scrambles.  Probably should put 1 Fig, 1 Tac, but I’m just saying.

G2 Sealion w/ Canadian transport destroyed (I’m ignoring the fact that it’s nearly impossible to do this and conserve your air, and keep your fleet safe, but again, just hypothetically):

5 Inf, 2 Art, 3 Arm, 4 Fig, 5 Tac, 1 Strat, 1 BB, 1 CA vs 13 Inf, 5 Fig, AA gun

is only about 70% for Germany.
That’s if this impossible situation happens.  It can literally not get more ideal than that.
Or I’m missing something?

[jim010]

Germany must put at least 1 Fig in 110 to protect the meager 1 BB, 1 CA from scrambles.  Probably should put 1 Fig, 1 Tac, but I’m just saying.

I did not consider that.

OK, let’s fast forward to UK2.  5 fht, 1 tac (maybe 1 CA, 1 DD?) vs 1 BB, 1 CA, 3 fht.

[jim010]

UK1 against the 4 TT buy?

SeaUK1NCM.AAM

[Alsch91]

UK would have the CA from 91, I don’t see Germany being able to hit it on G2.
And if the Canadian ships aren’t hit, I also have that DD to use from Gibraltar.

Without DD -
5 Fig, 1 Tac, 1 CA vs 1 BB, 1 CA, 3 Fig
is 71% for UK.

With DD -
5 Fig, 1 Tac, 1 DD, 1 CA vs 1 BB, 1 CA, 3 Fig
is 90% UK.

That’s pretty convincing to me.
Oops, forgot about blocking with the DD.  Forget that last part, I guess.

[jim010]

We have 2 DDs to use, if the one from 106 survives, which it shouldn’t

[Alsch91]

Ah, so we’re not going with James’s move of hitting 109 with three subs.  Sorry about that.

[jim010]

No.  My reason for I outlined in post 183.

[Alsch91]

If that is the case, why does UK not just hit 112 with its remaining DD, CA and 4 Fig?
That’s 55% UK.

[jim010]

Better odds to hit on UK2.  That being said, I think you are forced to hit UK1, though.  I’m just looking to see what it would look like if Germany went for G3 with this - and the answer is Germany can’t.

[Alsch91]

Ah, I see now.

I’m pretty convinced that this 4 TT buy doesn’t really pan out.
Not getting a carrier for protecting the fleet makes Germany bend over backward with risks to its air.

[Alsch91]

And regarding your I2 -

Why not take Gibraltar?

Without doing that, UK can crush the German fleet with combined fleet and air possessions while Germany sits in 111 after G3.

Also - it seems like the 3 Inf, 1 Arm in Syria would be safe in Iraq after hitting those 2 British Inf.
Certainly would speed up Italy’s growth.

Without having taken Greece or Gibraltar, Italy is missing out on another very obtainable NO.
Not of consequence to Sealion, but still quite beneficial.

Couple small issues with Italy’s movements,
but the only one of consequence I see is not nabbing Gibraltar.

[jim010]

I was mostly concerned with what can be done to directly influence Sealion.

By all means take Gib instead.  I see Italy as having options in a full UK defense.

I only wanted to see if we can defend London, and we can.

[jim010]

I will point out that the tournament bid as it is now would change this.