For buying 4 TT, I see the opening G1 we used as the base.
If 3 sb go in on sz109 to kill the DD there, scrambling in sz110 would mean UK wins 88% with 2 planes, and Germany is down 5 planes. G2 Sealion is out.
Using the standard opening, Germany will have (this is the max):
5 inf, 2 art, 3 tanks, 5 fht, 5 tac, 1 bmb, 1 CA, 1 BB
vs
14 inf, 1 tank, 5 fht, 1 AA
Success 68%
Odds are a little low. 2/3 games success. 1/2 games if UK hits sz112.
If the trn is destroyed, you would think German chances would improve. Is that the result you wrote us? 75% for Germany if that trn is removed? Shouldn’t that be more of a priority? Anyone?
Odds jump to 86% if the TT is dead.
But where are we pulling the sb from? That makes a big difference for scrambling.
If we pull from sz111, Germany wins 52% with 1 plane
odds now are 66% with the loss of 2 aircraft. That’s assuming the Canadian TT is lost. Worse if Germany lost all 3.
sz110 NEEDS 2 sb, 3 fht, 2 tac as a minimum.
I don’t think I understand -
G2 Sealion w/ Canadian transport surviving:
5 Inf, 2 Art, 3 Arm, 4 Fig, 5 Tac, 1 Strat, 1 BB, 1 CA vs 14 Inf, 1 Arm, 5 Fig, AA gun
is only 41.8% for Germany.
Germany must put at least 1 Fig in 110 to protect the meager 1 BB, 1 CA from scrambles. Probably should put 1 Fig, 1 Tac, but I’m just saying.
G2 Sealion w/ Canadian transport destroyed (I’m ignoring the fact that it’s nearly impossible to do this and conserve your air, and keep your fleet safe, but again, just hypothetically):
5 Inf, 2 Art, 3 Arm, 4 Fig, 5 Tac, 1 Strat, 1 BB, 1 CA vs 13 Inf, 5 Fig, AA gun
is only about 70% for Germany.
That’s if this impossible situation happens. It can literally not get more ideal than that.
Or I’m missing something?
Germany must put at least 1 Fig in 110 to protect the meager 1 BB, 1 CA from scrambles. Probably should put 1 Fig, 1 Tac, but I’m just saying.
I did not consider that.
OK, let’s fast forward to UK2. 5 fht, 1 tac (maybe 1 CA, 1 DD?) vs 1 BB, 1 CA, 3 fht.
UK1 against the 4 TT buy?
UK would have the CA from 91, I don’t see Germany being able to hit it on G2.
And if the Canadian ships aren’t hit, I also have that DD to use from Gibraltar.
Without DD -
5 Fig, 1 Tac, 1 CA vs 1 BB, 1 CA, 3 Fig
is 71% for UK.
With DD -
5 Fig, 1 Tac, 1 DD, 1 CA vs 1 BB, 1 CA, 3 Fig
is 90% UK.
That’s pretty convincing to me.
Oops, forgot about blocking with the DD. Forget that last part, I guess.
We have 2 DDs to use, if the one from 106 survives, which it shouldn’t
Ah, so we’re not going with James’s move of hitting 109 with three subs. Sorry about that.
No. My reason for I outlined in post 183.
If that is the case, why does UK not just hit 112 with its remaining DD, CA and 4 Fig?
That’s 55% UK.
Better odds to hit on UK2. That being said, I think you are forced to hit UK1, though. I’m just looking to see what it would look like if Germany went for G3 with this - and the answer is Germany can’t.
Ah, I see now.
I’m pretty convinced that this 4 TT buy doesn’t really pan out.
Not getting a carrier for protecting the fleet makes Germany bend over backward with risks to its air.
And regarding your I2 -
Why not take Gibraltar?
Without doing that, UK can crush the German fleet with combined fleet and air possessions while Germany sits in 111 after G3.
Also - it seems like the 3 Inf, 1 Arm in Syria would be safe in Iraq after hitting those 2 British Inf.
Certainly would speed up Italy’s growth.
Without having taken Greece or Gibraltar, Italy is missing out on another very obtainable NO.
Not of consequence to Sealion, but still quite beneficial.
Couple small issues with Italy’s movements,
but the only one of consequence I see is not nabbing Gibraltar.
I was mostly concerned with what can be done to directly influence Sealion.
By all means take Gib instead. I see Italy as having options in a full UK defense.
I only wanted to see if we can defend London, and we can.
I will point out that the tournament bid as it is now would change this.
for those that want to land in Scotland:
23 inf, 1 art, 4 tanks, 5 fht, 1 tac
vs
12 inf, 5 art, 8 tanks, 1 AA
for 3 rounds
UK loses 20 units
Germany loses 22 units(this would be better for UK if Germany lands with only inf)
UK will have in London 13 inf, 1 art 4 tanks, 6 fht, 1 tac
VERY expensive for Germany. They should still win it, but … wow.
This is from a few pages back, but I realized the numbers were wrong.
UK london forces can be the same, but Germ is using 13 trns in this scenario, and therefore its best defense for Scotland will be 13 inf, 4 art, 8 arm aa gun.
I think these end up with the same numbers, which look really rough for UK especially considering they should probably lose a plane to the aa gun. UK has to shoot through 13 inf before getting to offensive units, and because they are strafing we know Germ will be left with aa gun and 1+arm remaining.
The other thing is placement of the remaining UK naval assets. I think in retrospect it would be better to put the UK trns in 110 with the CV and CA. This gives UK the best chance of surviving a G3 attack on that fleet. I wonder should there be 2 ftrs on the carrier too?
UK london forces can be the same, but Germ is using 13 trns in this scenario, and therefore its best defense for Scotland will be 13 inf, 4 art, 8 arm aa gun.
I think these end up with the same numbers, which look really rough for UK especially considering they should probably lose a plane to the aa gun. UK has to shoot through 13 inf before getting to offensive units, and because they are strafing we know Germ will be left with aa gun and 1+arm remaining.
The other thing is placement of the remaining UK naval assets. I think in retrospect it would be better to put the UK trns in 110 with the CV and CA. This gives UK the best chance of surviving a G3 attack on that fleet. I wonder should there be 2 ftrs on the carrier too?
The numbers I gave 20 units and 22 units is an average of running the battle 10 000 for 3 rounds only. As for shooting down 1 plane, I did have the AA gun on, but forgot to deduct it. Add 1 more UK inf and subtract 1 plane.
Germany will need to have enough to overcome the remaining units on G4, which can be done, but not much left in Europe.
If Germany has less than 13 TTs, G4 will be a disaster.
If Germany has less than 13 TTs, G4 will be a disaster.
That hasn’t been our groups experience. Yesterday (the 4th Sunday of the month when we meetup) The German player had 10 transports, after G4 he secured London with 20+ units. Lost 2 air to aaguns, and the UK player kept air units in there. London battle went 3 combat rounds. I would have done a few things different if I commanded UK assets (like keep elements of my fleet that were alive able to hit German fleet.)
When I play Germany, and perform a G4 I typically also have just 10 transports (this is with the standard opening of a carrier + 2TT).
Format for that outcome was, German fleet in sz112 after round 1. No UK attacks on fleet or Scotland.(perhaps they are necessary)
German fleet in sz 111 after round 2. Land force Scotland = 5 vs 13 land in London
German fleet in sz 111 after round 3. Land force Scotland = 25 vs 25 land in London (if CA TT lives G1)
German fleet in sz 110 after round 4. Land force to hit London = 45 vs 35 land in London Germany has 15+land left after battle.
There are a few things that can be added to London given some choices in the Med. namely 2 more land and 2 more air.
Regardless, a G4 in terms of seizing London hasn’t been a disaster yet. It does have bearing on the Russian front. I am not advocating one way or the other.
Personally, I still enjoy more fulfilling games as a UK player when I pull all assets out of London turn 1 (sacrifice to get USA in the war USA2) as I have 6 air units and a fleet harassing Italy’s intact fleet. This also permits an India DOW on turn 1. If you want details, I am creating another thread for it.
