Actually Jim I like the first option - going for the middle east as well.
Realistically UK can’t do anything to any Italian fleet possessions on UK2, and if they stay in the Med Italy will wreck them. Italy has more air and it can finally get to 92, and UK loses its air cover as it left.
Italy’s position seems just as strong as if its fleet were united.
Just remember that Italy no longer controls Cyprus. Not that it matters much for our purposes here.
Not sure if Italy would influence anything in terms of Sealion other than to provise a UK target, so I’ll leave as is for now.
Italy’s final move (much variability on what you can do)
And now G3 Sealion:
13 inf, 5 art, 8 tanks, 5 fht, 5 tac, 1 bmb, 1 CA, 1 BB
vs
24 inf, 1 art, 4 tanks, 6 fht, 1 tac, 1 AA
I get 56% success.
Sealion G3 defeated.
Have you run the numbers iwth 15 German transports for use on G3?
4 Round 1
10 Round 2
1 Starting
?
If UK scrambled G1, then:
13 inf, 5 art, 8 tanks, 2 fht, 5 tac, 1 bmb, 1 CA, 1 BB
vs
24 inf, 1 art, 4 tanks, 3 fht, 1 tac
success 72% - but if UK did scramble, then you take Scotland anyway and guarantee Sealion G3.
Moral of the story, don’t scramble.
@Cmdr:
Have you run the numbers iwth 15 German transports for use on G3?
4 Round 1
10 Round 2
1 Starting?
I recall you stated 13 max …
I say we go back now and look at James G2 Sealion. If it works, he broke the game.
@Cmdr:
Have you run the numbers iwth 15 German transports for use on G3?
4 Round 1
10 Round 2
1 Starting?
I recall you stated 13 max …
Yes, except Germany has 30 IPC on Round 1 which is 4 Transports + 2 Saved and if they get W. France and France (plus everything else they have odds of doing) they should have 70 the next round + 2 Saved = 72 IPC which is 10 Transports + 2 Saved.
So I was incorrect, the MAXIMUM number of transports England faces is 15, not 13. Since Germany may elect not to purchase the aircraft carrier.
for those that want to land in Scotland:
23 inf, 1 art, 4 tanks, 5 fht, 1 tac
vs
12 inf, 5 art, 8 tanks, 1 AA
for 3 rounds
UK loses 20 units
Germany loses 22 units
(this would be better for UK if Germany lands with only inf)
UK will have in London 13 inf, 1 art 4 tanks, 6 fht, 1 tac
VERY expensive for Germany. They should still win it, but … wow.
For James 4 TT buy, UK must not have both the DD in sz109 and the CA in sz91.
hmmm, I would think on average UK will lose an aircraft to AA fire over scotland, probably a ftr. In your strafe on Scotland it looks like you left 3 armor remaining? Thats a pretty good strafe. What combat units does Germany have remaining on the mainland ready for transport? Does Germany even have the troops to supply a second force? From memory they should be sitting on a few arty guns and maybe a mech or 2. I think we should finish this option before switching to either the 4 trn buy G1 or the Max trn buy G1 and G2 that Jen is suggesting. Each of those options should end up with separate needs for UK’s defense.
I also don’t like how this scenario involves not killing the UK trn off Canada G1. I do this every time, I’d rather leave a CA off Gib alive than a trn off Canada as the Germans.
I did have AA guns on when I ran the numbers, so the kills are an average.
HOWEVER, the number of kills is variable. AND you could actually win and be stuck in Scotland.
However, faced with a G4, I would hit and run every time.
I also don’t like how this scenario involves not killing the UK trn off Canada G1. I do this every time, I’d rather leave a CA off Gib alive than a trn off Canada as the Germans.
We did hit it. 60%, however, it will survive, so you need to assume it is there.
If that transport is nailed, then odds jump to 76%.
1/3 games you will have a 3/4 chance of succes on G3.
For buying 4 TT, I see the opening G1 we used as the base.
If 3 sb go in on sz109 to kill the DD there, scrambling in sz110 would mean UK wins 88% with 2 planes, and Germany is down 5 planes. G2 Sealion is out.
Using the standard opening, Germany will have (this is the max):
5 inf, 2 art, 3 tanks, 5 fht, 5 tac, 1 bmb, 1 CA, 1 BB
vs
14 inf, 1 tank, 5 fht, 1 AA
Success 68%
Odds are a little low. 2/3 games success. 1/2 games if UK hits sz112.
If the trn is destroyed, you would think German chances would improve. Is that the result you wrote us? 75% for Germany if that trn is removed? Shouldn’t that be more of a priority? Anyone?
Odds jump to 86% if the TT is dead.
But where are we pulling the sb from? That makes a big difference for scrambling.
If we pull from sz111, Germany wins 52% with 1 plane
odds now are 66% with the loss of 2 aircraft. That’s assuming the Canadian TT is lost. Worse if Germany lost all 3.
sz110 NEEDS 2 sb, 3 fht, 2 tac as a minimum.
I don’t think I understand -
G2 Sealion w/ Canadian transport surviving:
5 Inf, 2 Art, 3 Arm, 4 Fig, 5 Tac, 1 Strat, 1 BB, 1 CA vs 14 Inf, 1 Arm, 5 Fig, AA gun
is only 41.8% for Germany.
Germany must put at least 1 Fig in 110 to protect the meager 1 BB, 1 CA from scrambles. Probably should put 1 Fig, 1 Tac, but I’m just saying.
G2 Sealion w/ Canadian transport destroyed (I’m ignoring the fact that it’s nearly impossible to do this and conserve your air, and keep your fleet safe, but again, just hypothetically):
5 Inf, 2 Art, 3 Arm, 4 Fig, 5 Tac, 1 Strat, 1 BB, 1 CA vs 13 Inf, 5 Fig, AA gun
is only about 70% for Germany.
That’s if this impossible situation happens. It can literally not get more ideal than that.
Or I’m missing something?
