You are playing against a much stronger Italy than I normally am. If everything goes well for me, all its ships are sunk UK2. Here’s what I do:
bid Malta fighter and sz98 sub attack sz97 without the CV but with a fighter and bomber from London. Biggest risk is no enemy hits. move CV and sz109 units to sz92 land 2 british inf or mech inf to Algeria. Optionally add a fighter. If Italy does grab Algeria console yourself with at least nabbing a few Luftwaffe Sometimes I do indeed buy 5 inf and an Egypt factory UK1. Depends on how likely I think a Sea Lion is. Later, use US subs to convoy off Italian income.Onto your points about how early this can happen. In most Balanced Mod games, there is a J3 DOW. If we assume that, earliest this can be executed is US6. If there is a J1 DOW I would leave this strat in the bag for later in the game anyway and it is still only possible US5 because you really need that second transport for it to work. Looking at a game where I did the neutral crush round 12, I think I could have lined it up for round 7 and would have been much better off for it. Round 6 would have been too early and this is a game with a UK1 Egypt factory.
I don’t know about the neutral crush being a guaranteed win if executed well though. It draws in a lot of US money to Europe and you can’t completely ignore Japan. I lost one neutral crush game this way. Other games where I saw the opportunity to crush the neutrals later I felt like I was late to the party.
The neutral crush is especially valuable when Normandy is left French.