Sealion Stats- Cliff Notes

[jim010]

I still maintain what I have said in other threads, though, that Sealion can be stopped.

[Axisplaya]

@jim010:

I would also point out that if you scramble, that makes landing in scotland on turn 2 with 6 units worth it, as you’ll no longer have the planes to hit my fleet protecting my 3 TTs in sz111 used for landing in Scotland, nor can you now hit my newly built TTs in sz113.

Those extra 6 ground units really scew the odds in Germany’s favour.

In fact, not really…
I didn’t do it in our E40 game since i wanted to try the 5ss strat, but on UK2, you can attack the 6 units in Sco with 2 units from Que , 3 or 4units from Uk and 4 planes. The idea is to do just 1 round of combat and then retreat to Uk. Unless Germany gets very lucky in this battle, this negates partially the Germany’s good odds you were talking about.

[questioneer]

Jim- now that I’ve had time and experience to look at the options for both sides in the first 3 rounds and crunch the numbers- I wholeheartedly agree- though if any combination of 2 out of the 3 points I’ve given earlier doesn’t happen- as Germany I’d think you’d have to pull the trigger.

AxisPlaya- for this reason I bring 3ftr, 3tac and 2SS sometimes to ensure the win in z110 and discourage the scramble.

[jim010]

That also plays into Germany’s hands, though, as you are pulling units from the defense of London to do it, and I will still end up with some extra units attacking from Scotland.  And heaven forbid I hit more than 2 and shoot a plane (you will already be short from scrambling.)

My point is, scrambling is risky, and will usually give Germany more options, and UK less.

Besides, your odds of stopping Sealion are better if you don’t scramble.

[jim010]

@questioneer:

Jim- now that I’ve had time and experience to look at the options for both sides in the first 3 rounds and crunch the numbers- I wholeheartedly agree- though if any combination of 2 out of the 3 points I’ve given earlier doesn’t happen- as Germany I’d think you’d have to pull the trigger.

AxisPlaya- for this reason I bring 3ftr, 3tac and 2SS sometimes to ensure the win in z110 and discourage the scramble.

The only draw back on this, is that you are now only sending 1 fht to Southern Italy for defense of the Italian fleet, rather than 1 fht and 1 tac.

[Gargantua]

Have you tried that strategy I posted about a month ago?  If so did you make any modifications?

Daedulus, I did,  but there are VERY effective counters.  We were also theorizing unde a rule miscalculation, the rule now being that you can’t unload from German transports unless they are at war already.

With that strategy there is also no point in building a complex G1, IMO.

for this reason I bring 3ftr, 3tac and 2SS sometimes to ensure the win in z110 and discourage the scramble.

Jim, Axis, have you guys considered what happens when you don’t send 5 planes + 2 subs to that sz, JUST to kill a battleship/cruiser?  You should sus those options…. they make for an amazing G1.

[JimmyHat]

Indeed, I hit the bb dd off scotland(only 1 ftr can scramble) and the dd trn off Canada.  Now UK is at the mercy of my sub stacks and is down 1 trn for the def of UK.

I think with a minimal investment by US(1 CV 1 dd 1 tac or ftr) and the UK doing everything in its power to save its capital it is possible to defend a G3.  But if Germ wants UK they can still take it G4.

[jim010]

Jim, Axis, have you guys considered what happens when you don’t send 5 planes + 2 subs to that sz, JUST to kill a battleship/cruiser?  You should sus those options…. they make for an amazing G1.

I’ve toyed with this one.  I’ll try it at some point, but I just have a hard time letting that BB go.

I think with a minimal investment by US(1 CV 1 dd 1 tac or ftr) and the UK doing everything in its power to save its capital it is possible to defend a G3.  But if Germ wants UK they can still take it G4.

I’ve toyed with this too.  The counter I use is a hit and fade to Scotland.  Hit for 2 rounds and back off back to London.  Risky for UK, but it is the only thing I’ve come up with to counter it.  Risky because once I hit so well with the UK that I killed all the germans and got stuck there.

[questioneer]

yeah i’m with you on your comments jim- I can’t let that BB go- UK can make serious move to revive that navy quickly.

Strafe on Scotland?  Hmmm…interesting.

[Gargantua]

That’s the thing.

If you guys are like me - and I think you are, you are always looking to move every piece you have on the board.

Tell me… what are you german aircraft and subs doing G2?  Not a whole lot of much… If you skinned your knees with just ground units in paris, and killed off the BB.

You talk about the BB “going away”  there’s no where for it to “go away” to.  Save inside the Med, where it’s still just a FAT target.  Trust me, you get it G2…

It’s all about the fall of Normandy, and if you have some luck, winning a 50/50 draw in southern france.

It also entices some players to try and build into their british fleet, or exhaust their planes in an attack against the german one.  Making sea-lion SO much easier, and barely half the investment.  And with the odd ground unit you save, by crushing paris, and taking normandy/ maybe southern france off the list,  YOu end up with more mechanized units on the ground, and a more focused Italian troop.

To boot, this build makes the option for the british to attack the italians, that much more unviable.  In most cases, allowing the Italian fleet to survive.  Then, hell… you got a game.

IT WORKS, try it.  just don’t let it get out of hand :)

[questioneer]

I’ll try it in one of my games

[suprise attack]

Scotland is so good to take because if they come back for it their just making their Capital slimmer and like I like to say why wait for them to build round after round.
  Strafing targets with your planes in most cases its a good thing sometimes ya get burned, when they do it to you and you find the hot dice it can be very rewarding…… it happened last weekend and I annihilated a bunch of planes, I was Russia it was great!!! the dice were my friends

[Chompers2]

@Gargantua:

I’ve improved my German/Italian strategy to the point that if the US doesn’t committ anything to Europe, the allies will lose - and lose bad.

Even if Japan is wiped off the board by US8, which, isn’t likely to happen.  Without intervention of somekind by the US, into the mediterranean or otherwise, the Axis will win in Europe - nye guarunteed.

This can be compounded with a micro Japanese campaign against the Russians in the east - eroding the red income.

Try it on the Europe board.  Take the U.S. right out of the game.  The Allies don’t stand a chance.  Thats also considering Germany gets 2 less IPC’s from the Paris capture, and the reds give a full committment against germany, with no troop draws to japan, and no chance of income erosion in the east.

All theories of a 100% American committment to Japan are hereby debunked.

And just think of the Japanese counter options, if you know the yanks are coming, and you only have to play a delay game…

I Axis have lost some games and won others when the US went Japan first in the games I play with my friend.  We have averaged about a game every 2 weeks since Alpha 2 came out.  The tactic we are having more trouble overcoming is when the USA reduces Italy to no longer being relevant first while flying fighters to Hawaii.  Japan can still take Hawaii but it seems to cost too many resources with a bunch of Infantry and Fighters sitting there.  Once Italy has been wrecked and their are US subs sitting in the Med, it seems very hard for the Axis to win in Europe so the US then bounces to the Pacific.

[Axisplaya]

@Gargantua:

That’s the thing.You talk about the BB “going away”  there’s no where for it to “go away” to.  Save inside the Med, where it’s still just a FAT target.  Trust me, you get it G2…

Well, this is the part i just don’t get…How do you get the UK fleet on G2 after UK gathered all they have in sz92 on UK1 AND left a blocker in sz104.

For all the rest of what you say, i agree. I’ve played this opening a few times, and it’s cool not to be stressed about UK scrambling in sz110, taking out sz111, Paris and Normandy with loads of planes and gambling in Sfr. This opening allow to maximize the effect of combined Tanks + tacs in Fra.

[jim010]

If the BB and CA in sz110 are left alone, UK can hit sz112 with upto 5 fht, 1 DD, 2 CA, 1 BB

I would assume that you would then as Germany need to buy at least 1 more combat ship and forego the 2 TTs?

So that’s:
5 fht, 1 DD, 2 CA, 1 BB vs 1 DD, 5 fht, 1 CV, 1 dmg BB, 1 CA

Germany wins 75%.  If Germany loses the CA, however, the odds drop to 52% in favour of the UK.

You would be short 1 TT in this scenario, which means UK can prevent Sealion anyway.

[jim010]

You talk about the BB “going away”  there’s no where for it to “go away” to.  Save inside the Med, where it’s still just a FAT target.  Trust me, you get it G2…

I think I would do it in a game where I wasn’t serious about Sealion.  Buy 1 CV and 2 sb and then chase it down turn 2.  I’d do that.

[Axisplaya]

@jim010:

I think I would do it in a game where I wasn’t serious about Sealion.  Buy 1 CV and 2 sb and then chase it down turn 2.  I’d do that.

Same question as Gargantua : How would you do that if Uk leaves a blocker in sz104 and gather everything in sz92 ?…
Uk has options then, they can get out of the med, they can go to sz98 and regroup with UK pacific boats…

[jim010]

He would have to block in 110 and in 111 or 119.  Which means he’s splitting his fleet up for me anyway.  He would block the north with a DD, and block 110 with a CA (or build a DD blocker).

By splitting, I think I would still be able to get at his fleet wtih planes and any subs that are not blocked.  Just musing here.

[jim010]

OK, here’s what I would do.  Sea movements only.

gcm.AAM

[jim010]

German NCM Sea only.  Land 2 fht in Sit.

I assumed that there is 1 sb loss in sz91 and mutual kills in sz106.  If both subs are alive - watch out.

gncm.AAM