Assuming I lost 2 planes (as I did, since you had 1 shot at 5 or less) and my calculator is a bit screwy, so let’s pretend my shore bombardments only hit one defender (since my luck seems to trend that way). I chose 1 fighter, 1 tactical bomber as the planes lost. Given my druthers, I would just lose two fighters since the TBs can be paired with tanks.
Now, it cannot really handle tactical bombers well, but here’s what I have:
3.5 rounds of combat on average.
Most likely outcome: 1 Armor, 4 Aircraft remaining.
Odds of success: 100%
To counter the fact it cannot handle tactical bombers (having to be paired iwth a fighter or armor, you know.) Let’s run it again with -1 bomber and see what happens:
4.4 rounds of combat on average.
Most likely outcome: 1 armor, 1 strategic bomber
Odds of success: 68.3%
What I take that to mean is that virtually everytime this battle is run, Germany wins with at least 1 ground unit left to take the capitol.
Straight up odds, from a different, less trust-worthy calculator (but it can do TBs correctly) I get (ADS): 84.4% odds, but that calculator is going to assume the Strategic Bomber is the last unit lost.
All in all, despite your being able to time it perfectly to kill 5 units and then land and retreat into London again, the battle for England seems to always be a losing proposition for England. I don’t know why, but despite ones best hopes and dreams and plans, Germany always seems to get it if they go for early in the game.