Jennifer (Axis) vs Krychek (Allies) Game 2 - Theory Test

[Jennifer]

Yes, you can do that, but it won’t change the result, just the degree of the result.  And no, Sea Lion almost always works regardless of what is done to stop it, it is one of the major flaws in this game, so I wasn’t really testing that…

Italy:

Buy(29)

• 2 Transports
• 5 Infantry

Combat Moves:

Infantry from Tobruk to Alexandira
Infantry from S. France to W. France
2 Infantry from Morocco to F. West Africa
Infantry ISO to Kenya

NCM:

5 Infantry, 2 Artillery, MI, ARmor, 2 Fighters, Tactical Bomber to Toburk
2 Transports, 2 Destroyers, 2 Cruisers, Battleship to SZ 96
2 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 2 ARmor, AA Gun to N. Italy
Armor, to Yugoslavia
AA Gun to S. Germany

Build: 5 Infantry in N. Italy
Build: 2 Transports in SZ SZ 93

Collect: 5 N. Africa, 5 Greece, 5 Med, 21 TT = 36 IPC

---

Germany:

Buy(51)

• 7 Infantry
• 6 Armor

Combat Moves:

England:

• Artillery from Scotland
• 2 Infantry from Holland
• 7 iNfnatry, Artillery, 8 ARmor, 3 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 1 Strategic Bomber from W. Germany
• 1 Cruiser Bombardment from SZ 113 (shot from SZ 110)
• 1 Battleship, 1 Cruiser Bombardment from SZ 111 (shot from SZ 110)
  ** DD, 2 CA, BB, AC, 9 TRN, SS to SZ 110

Assuming no scramble, you could get 2 hits damaging the carrier and battleship negating my shore bombardments, but then you lose 3 fighters to protect England with.

AA Gun Fire:
11 Planes = 1 Hit + 1@5
Rolls: 1@5; Total Hits: 01@5: (6)

[Jennifer]

1 Fighter lost to AA Gun fire

Round 1:
Attacker: 7@1 4@2 14@3 7@4 = 7 + 8 + 42 + 28 = 59 = 11 Hits + 1@4
Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 01@4: (5)

Defender: 21@2 + 2@3 + 6@4 = 42 + 6 + 24 = 72 = 12 hits

I should have 100% odds here….we’ll see!

[Jennifer]

Round 2:
Attacker: 11@3 6@4: 9
Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 01@3: (4)
Defender: 10@2 2@3 6@4: 8
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[Jennifer]

Attacker: 4@3 5@4: 5
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (1)
Defender: 1@2 2@3 6@4:5
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)

[Jennifer]

Attacker: 2@3 2@4:2 Hits
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)
Defender: 3@4: 2 Hits

[Jennifer]

Attacker Hits (Arm/S. Bom)
Defender:
Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 11@4: (2)

[Jennifer]

England taken with armor, all other units lost…expensive, but done.

NCM:

2 MI to Hungary
3 Infantry, AA Gun to Hungary
4 Infantry to Hungary
Artillery to W. Germany
Infantry to Finland

Build: 7 Infantry, 3 Armor in Germany
Build: 3 Armor in W. Germany

Collect: 34 IPC London, +5 IPC London NO, +5 IPC Russia NO, +5 IPC Sweeden NO + 47 TT - 2 CRD SZ 109  = 94 IPC

Krychek_v_Jennifer_Game03_03Agermany.AAM

[Krychek]

so you are telling me that I did what was needed to stop germany and you took london because I missed @5 aa fire?

[Krychek]

so yes, actually I’m pretty proud of my moves to removes 5 of your units for 2 of mines.

You did attack with 80% chances of losing, that’s pretty funny. But knowing how lucky you are, I guess you didn’t care?

[Krychek]

AA Fires is flawed in Low luck as well. You can’t possibly get to decide what you lose. I wonder how others do with their AA fires because when I think about it it should remains 11 rolls @1 since each fire fires up at a specific planes and thats why you can’t get to chose which you lost so maybe you lost your bomber. too late for this game but I guess I did the same in the other game and that really needs to be adressed.

[Jennifer]

Yes, but if you do it by plane then the attacker could lose 3 planes when in LL there could never be more than 2 planes lost out of 11.

[Krychek]

Doesn’t matter, could lose 11 in normal luck as well lol. Low luck lower overall luck in the game but if it breaks a certain law we must go arround. Maybe it should be different rolls for each type of planes then?

[Jennifer]

Assuming I lost 2 planes (as I did, since you had 1 shot at 5 or less) and my calculator is a bit screwy, so let’s pretend my shore bombardments only hit one defender (since my luck seems to trend that way).  I chose 1 fighter, 1 tactical bomber as the planes lost.  Given my druthers, I would just lose two fighters since the TBs can be paired with tanks.

Now, it cannot really handle tactical bombers  well, but here’s what I have:

3.5 rounds of combat on average.

Most likely outcome: 1 Armor, 4 Aircraft remaining.

Odds of success: 100%

To counter the fact it cannot handle tactical bombers (having to be paired iwth a fighter or armor, you know.) Let’s run it again with -1 bomber and see what happens:

4.4 rounds of combat on average.

Most likely outcome: 1 armor, 1 strategic bomber

Odds of success: 68.3%

What I take that to mean is that virtually everytime this battle is run, Germany wins with at least 1 ground unit left to take the capitol.

Straight up odds, from a different, less trust-worthy calculator (but it can do TBs correctly) I get (ADS): 84.4% odds, but that calculator is going to assume the Strategic Bomber is the last unit lost.

All in all, despite your being able to time it perfectly to kill 5 units and then land and retreat into London again, the battle for England seems to always be a losing proposition for England.  I don’t know why, but despite ones best hopes and dreams and plans, Germany always seems to get it if they go for early in the game.

[Krychek]

Can the allies win ever without London…?

[Jennifer]

Yes.  I’ve lost a few games even with London in my hands.  One major effect can be an American fleet convoy raiding England, that removes 8 IPC from Germany a round right there.  Also, America can shuttle troops through Ireland into England, eventually liberating it.

[Krychek]

Russia 3

Purchases
4 Inf 3 Rtl 1 Minf 1 Arm

CMs

Bury
1 Minf 1 Arm Yen to Bury
2 Inf Sak to Bury

Sib
3 Inf Sak to Sib
1 Tbmb Sak to Sib

Bury Def
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)

Sib Def
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[Krychek]

Bury, Sib Twol

NCMs
1 Inf Bel to Epl
8 Inf 2 Rtl 1 AA Nukr to Epl
20 Inf 1 Rtl Bel to Epl
1 Inf Nov to Bel
1 Inf Sukr to Bes
2 Inf SUkr to Nukr
2 Inf Bry to Bel
1 Inf Ros to Sukr
1 Rtl Sam to Kaz
2 Inf Kaz to Sik
2 Minf Vol to Novo
1 Arm Vol to Sukr
1 Arm Tsi to Kan
1 Minf Tim to Yak
3 Inf 1 Rtl Rus to Bry
1 Inf Sik to Tsi
1 SS SZ109 to SZ123
1 SS SZ115 to SZ113
1 BB SZ114 to SZ115
1 Ftr Yen to Rus
1 Tbmb Sib to Sak

Places 1 Inf 1 Minf 1 Rtl Vol
Places 1 Inf 1 Rtl 1 Arm Sukr
Places 2 Inf 1 Rtl Nov

Collects 35 IPCs

Krychek_v_Jennifer_Game03_03bRussia.AAM

[Jennifer]

Japan:

Buy(48)

• 4 Infantry
• 2 Armor
• 3 Destroyers

Combat Moves:

Infantry from SUI to KAN
2 Strategic Bombers from KWA to KAN

Attacker: Hit
Defender:
Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 11@3: (3)

[Jennifer]

Cleared, not taken

NCMs on Map

Build: 4 Infantry, 2 Armor, 3 Destroyers in Japan

Collect: 47 IPC

Krychek_v_Jennifer_Game03_03cJapan.AAM

[Krychek]

US 3

Declaration of War against Germany, Italy and Japan !!!

Purchases
Eus: 2 Infs 1 ss = 12 IPCs
Cus: 1 BB 2 Trn = 34 IPCs
Wus: 1 Trn = 7 IPCs
= 53 IPCs

CMs

SZ25
1 SS SZ10 to SZ25
2 Ftr Haw to SZ25

Bra
1 Trn SZ101 to SZ86 With 1 Inf 1 Minf

Gib
3 Trn SZ101 to SZ91 With 3 Inf 2 Rtl 1 Minf
1 DD 1 Cru 1 AC 2 Ftr SZ101 to SZ91

Car/SZ33
1 AC 1 BB 2 Cru 2 DD 1 Sub SZ26 to SZ33 2 Ftr
2 Trn SZ26 to SZ33 With 2 Inf 1 Rtl 1 Arm