Jim010 vs Questioneer AAG40 2+ lowluck

[jim010]

I won’t survive with enough.

If you want me to do Sealion anyway, I’ll do it just to see where it goes, but I’m surviving with a handful.  And there is still a 1/4 chance that I still lose in lowluck.

As a playtest you want me to do it?

[questioneer]

No, you don’t have to, do what you want.  I just think you’re a little gun shy.  78% is a lot!  I’ve calculated Sealion (depending on the position which varies little to be around 60-70% give or take.  Anything under 60-65% I consider too risky for me, but to each his own…

[jim010]

You misunderstand the odds.  Regular luck it is 55%.  You never run Sealion on that.  78% on low luck.  That is crappy for lowluck.

[jim010]

I don’t do Sealion based on odds, but on how much I survive with.  If I can get it with most of my tanks, I do it.

I’ll tell you what, I’ll run it then.  But I’ll want a rematch if it blows up in my face.

[jim010]

Redo

Germany

buys

9 TT, 2 inf

CM

Bul to Greece
5 inf

Sit to Greece
1 fht, 1 tac

Wge to Greece
1 bmb

Hol to Wfr
2 inf, 2 fht, 1 tac

[jim010]

Battle of Wfr
2 inf, 2 fht, 1 tac vs 1 inf, 1 tank

att = 12 pips = 2 hits

def = 5 pips

Rolls: 1@5; Total Hits: 11@5: (3)

[questioneer]

@jim010:

You misunderstand the odds.  Regular luck it is 55%.  You never run Sealion on that.  78% on low luck.  That is crappy for lowluck.

I see…then I truly haven’t grasped low luck stats yet…we’ll do what you want…it doesn’t matter to me.

[jim010]

Battle of Greece
5 inf, 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb vs 4 inf

att = 16 pips = 2 hits r4

Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 01@4: (5)

def = 8 pips = 1 hit r2

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)

[jim010]

Greece 2

att = 14 = 2 hits

def = r4

Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 11@4: (1)

[jim010]

NCM

Greece to Wge
1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb

Wfr to Wge
1 fht, 1 tac

Wfr to sz112
1 fht

sz112 to Wge
1 tac

Hol to Gib
1 fht

Wge to Gib
1 tac

Fin to Nor
5 inf

sz111 to sz110
1 sb

Hol to Wge
1 inf

Paris to Wge
1 art, 5 tanks

Yugo to Wge
3 tanks

Yugo to Hun
4 inf

Ger to Hun
3 art, 14 inf

Wge to Ger
2 inf

Place

sz112
9 TT

Ger
2 inf

Collect

$53

[jim010]

Map

jimandstirl_vs_Questioneer_2aGer.AAM

[jim010]

1 change - I’ll put the units that went to Hun into Pol instead.

jimandstirl_vs_Questioneer_2aGer.AAM

[questioneer]

R2

Buy- 5inf, 1art, 3tnks- no change

NCM

18inf, 1AA fm Bury to Yak
all unit fm Bury to NUkr
3tnk fm Rus to Belo

Placement

3tnk on Rus
1art, 2inf on Novgo
3inf on Ukr

Collect - $37

I’ll get map later tonight

[jim010]

Stirling, here’s the map based on the typed moves.

jimandstirl_vs_Questioneer_2bRus.AAM

[questioneer]

confirmed map- looks good :-)

[questioneer]

Wakey wakey Stirling… :-D

[jim010]

I sent Stirling a message.

I’ll be gone for the weekend, by the way.  And next week will be very busy and I’ll be gone next weekend as well.  I’ll try to get a move in when i can.

[questioneer]

No problemo

[Stirling]

Japan 2

Declare war Russia

41 IPC

Min Ind, 1 AB 1 arm

CMB

2tt z6 2 inf Jap - z5 and inf sfe inf sib
8inf 1 arm Man - Amu
all anh -Hop
all except mec Cha - Hop
Hun - Kwe
all kwa ground - Yun
Air Kwa - Sze

Kwa

ATK

1@1 4@2 1@3 = 12 = 2 Hits

Def

2@2 = 4 = 1 @4

Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 11@4: (3)

[Stirling]

SZE

ATK

7@3 7@4 = 49 = 8 hits

Def

5@2 1@4 = 14 = 2 hit and 1@2

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (1)