Jim010 vs Questioneer AAG40 2+ lowluck

[jim010]

I’m gone this weekend, and stirling is gone for the week.

[Major Major]

Sorry to interrupt, but I’ve a question for questioneer; is there a new battlemap or upgrade. I can’t open the maps from anyone’s games that are recent.  I can still open my old ones?

[jim010]

We still playing?  :?

[questioneer]

yes, been busy- exams

[questioneer]

having trouble uploading map- I’ll have to get to this later- sorry.

[questioneer]

France 1

NCM- on map- I’m not writing it out for France- there’s not much there so…

map

jimandstirl_vs_Questioneer_1Ffr.AAM

[jim010]

Hmm … I’m still getting 78% success on low luck for Sealion.  Which means I would survive with little.

[jim010]

78% on low luck is too risky …

Germany

Buys

1 CV, 1 DD, 11 inf, 3 art

CM

Bul to Greece
4 inf

Sit to Greece
1 tac, 1 fht

Wge to Greece
1 bmb

Yugo to Greece
3 tanks

Hol to Wfr
2 inf, 3 fht, 1 tac

[jim010]

Take 1 fht back from Wfr

[questioneer]

@jim010:

Hmm … I’m still getting 78% success on low luck for Sealion.  Which means I would survive with little.

too risky??? wow…please elaborate…I’m interested in your thinking here.  Taking London gains you cash back for your losses and no income from Britain for several rounds (material against you- you should count this as an asset for you).  Taking the Brit Isles gain you +9 a round and 30+ cash not including the 25IPC a turn that can be churned out against you- which is save material for you.

My philosophy is that as Germany you at least have to threaten Sealion to force Britain to build infantry.  I’m puzzled. :?

[jim010]

I won’t survive with enough.

If you want me to do Sealion anyway, I’ll do it just to see where it goes, but I’m surviving with a handful.  And there is still a 1/4 chance that I still lose in lowluck.

As a playtest you want me to do it?

[questioneer]

No, you don’t have to, do what you want.  I just think you’re a little gun shy.  78% is a lot!  I’ve calculated Sealion (depending on the position which varies little to be around 60-70% give or take.  Anything under 60-65% I consider too risky for me, but to each his own…

[jim010]

You misunderstand the odds.  Regular luck it is 55%.  You never run Sealion on that.  78% on low luck.  That is crappy for lowluck.

[jim010]

I don’t do Sealion based on odds, but on how much I survive with.  If I can get it with most of my tanks, I do it.

I’ll tell you what, I’ll run it then.  But I’ll want a rematch if it blows up in my face.

[jim010]

Redo

Germany

buys

9 TT, 2 inf

CM

Bul to Greece
5 inf

Sit to Greece
1 fht, 1 tac

Wge to Greece
1 bmb

Hol to Wfr
2 inf, 2 fht, 1 tac

[jim010]

Battle of Wfr
2 inf, 2 fht, 1 tac vs 1 inf, 1 tank

att = 12 pips = 2 hits

def = 5 pips

Rolls: 1@5; Total Hits: 11@5: (3)

[questioneer]

@jim010:

You misunderstand the odds.  Regular luck it is 55%.  You never run Sealion on that.  78% on low luck.  That is crappy for lowluck.

I see…then I truly haven’t grasped low luck stats yet…we’ll do what you want…it doesn’t matter to me.

[jim010]

Battle of Greece
5 inf, 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb vs 4 inf

att = 16 pips = 2 hits r4

Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 01@4: (5)

def = 8 pips = 1 hit r2

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)

[jim010]

Greece 2

att = 14 = 2 hits

def = r4

Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 11@4: (1)

[jim010]

NCM

Greece to Wge
1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb

Wfr to Wge
1 fht, 1 tac

Wfr to sz112
1 fht

sz112 to Wge
1 tac

Hol to Gib
1 fht

Wge to Gib
1 tac

Fin to Nor
5 inf

sz111 to sz110
1 sb

Hol to Wge
1 inf

Paris to Wge
1 art, 5 tanks

Yugo to Wge
3 tanks

Yugo to Hun
4 inf

Ger to Hun
3 art, 14 inf

Wge to Ger
2 inf

Place

sz112
9 TT

Ger
2 inf

Collect

$53