Sealion alpha 2+

[jim010]

I hijacked enough of this thread.

Let me get back to topic.

Here is the BEST Sealion opening you can do:

Germany

Buys

1 CV, 2 TT (or save $7 for turn 2)

CM

sz124 to sz111
1 sb

sz118 to sz111
1 sb

sz108 to sz110
1 sb

sz103 to sz110
1 sb

Hol to sz110
1 fht

W Ger to sz110
2 fht, 3 tac

Nor to sz111
1 fht

E Ger to sz111
1 bmb, 1 tac

sz113 to sz112
1 BB, 1 CA

Hol to Paris
2 inf, 2art, 3 tanks

W Ger to paris
3 inf, 1 art, 4 mec

S Ger to paris
2 tanks

Rom to Yugo
1 inf, 1 tanks

Hun to Yugo
2 inf, 1 tank

Pol to Yugo
1 tank

S Ger to Yugo
3 inf

sz117 to sz106
1 sb (maybe you’ll get that DD and TT)

[jim010]

There is still the fht in Hun and the tac in Pol.  They can be sent to S Ital to protect the Italian fleet there, or to help with the battle in sz112.

[jim010]

Odds with likely outcome:

Paris 95%

survive with 3 art, 5 tanks

Yugo 99% (without the fht from Hun and the Tac from Pol)

survive with 3 inf, 3 tanks

sz111 99% (83% with scrambling)

survive with 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb (I’ll look at sc5rambling casualties next post)

sz110 99% (91% with scrambling)

survive with 3 fht, 3 tac, 1 sb (I’ll look at scrambling casulaties next post)

sz106 33% win 33% exchange 33% lose

[jim010]

sz112 is the one I don’t like.

It is 73%, and with so few units involved, it could go bad pretty easy.  I would think you need the fht and/or tac from Pol and Hun here, but then you are not defending the Italian fleet out of S Italy.

This one is the sticking point.

[jim010]

If UK scambles, and teh casulaties fall as predicted, Sealion just shoots up ~20%.

I know others think the risk is worth it, but if it falls like it should, it is bad for UK.

That being said, I do realize that fhts don’t hit sbs, and that the casulaties taken may very well be on the German planes.

Disagree with me if you’d like, but I find the risk too great to scramble, and ultimately not needed.  If it works, you look brilliant, but scrambing often shouldn’t work.

I’ll go ever the UK counter moves later, I have to go.

[jim010]

Assuming no scrambling:

NCM

sz111 to sz112
1 tac

sz111 to W Ger
1 fht, 1 tac

sz110 to sz112
1 fht

sz110 to W Ger
2 fht, 3 tac

If you didn’t hit sz112 with the fht and tac, send tham to S Ital.  Everything else, as long as you activate Fin and Bulg, and send enough Inf to W Ger or Ger to be able to fill up 12 TTs, you are good.

[soldaatvanoranje]

Hey, just an idea here: US ships are limited to US shores in alpha2+, does this apply to their planes as well?

[Jennifer]

@soldaatvanoranje:

Hey, just an idea here: US ships are limited to US shores in alpha2+, does this apply to their planes as well?

All us equipment has to be on US land or adjacent sea zones to US land, per Alpha 2.  (I believe,if I can remember right ships were limited from going near Europe or Africa and all American equipment not on ships had to be on American soil…but now it all has to be on American land or adjacent sea zones.)

[questioneer]

@jim010:

Assuming no scrambling:

NCM

sz111 to sz112
1 tac

sz111 to W Ger
1 fht, 1 tac

sz110 to sz112
1 fht

sz110 to W Ger
2 fht, 3 tac

If you didn’t hit sz112 with the fht and tac, send tham to S Ital.  Everything else, as long as you activate Fin and Bulg, and send enough Inf to W Ger or Ger to be able to fill up 12 TTs, you are good.

Jimbo,

you’re right on with the stats.  I’m too chicken to play without the ftr and tac to z112, though I need to try it.  If you lose z112 on bad dice though are you might be done for.